Oh My Nanos!


Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Tories holding strong nationally at 37% support. The Liberals trail 11 points behind at 26%, followed by the NDP at 21%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 7 %. The Bloc Québécois has regained ground in Quebec, while the Conservatives and Liberals remain statistically tied in the province of Ontario. At 39%, Stephen Harper heads Canada’s choice for Prime Minister, followed by Jack Layton at 17%. Stéphane Dion drops to 11%, with Elizabeth May scoring 5% and Gilles Duceppe 3%.

Link to the full data

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Oh My Nanos!

  1. Up until now, Nanos has shown a much tighter race between the libs and cons. He has claimed that his numbers are different than other pollsters because of superior methodology, in particular an ability to survey young and hard to reach voters. Now his numbers are similar to everyone else’s. Will we see an even bigger lead for the Tories from other pollsters tomorrow or was/is Nanos full of it?

  2. so much for the rogue poll theory…

  3. If things keep going as bad to worse (which they will) for the Lib’s as they have been Layton just might have a chance at being the oppostion leader a very slim one but you never know last minute strategic voting and the amount of undecided could do very interesting things this upcoming election.

  4. Polls are for the dogs, and we know what dogs do to polls.

    ‘Poll’ and ‘scientific’ shouldn’t be used together. Polls rely on people being rational and honest. I’m not sure how rational and honest people are, especially on the phone.

    But they are fun to speculate over, that much I can admit. If we end up seeing a majority government with under 40 per cent of the vote (of those that vote anwyays), that would be a good point to raise in favour of election reform.

    The time has come for election reform.

  5. Considering how poorly the Libs are doing in the polls one wonders why someone bothered to smash all their election signs in my area…

  6. Over at Stephen Gordon’s Worthwhile Canadian Initiative blog, he’s just posted a very good musing on the differences (such as they are) between Nanos and other polls.  I was particularly heartened to see that he did some actual confidence-interval estimates of the statistical likelihood that Nanos’ results should differ from the results of other polls by x points for any given question.

    Worth the read.  Permalink is here:


  7. I’m going to keep plugging this adjusted tally of public opinion polls until it starts getting more attention in the blogosphere.


  8. Re: john g’s comment. I can’t put a lot of faith in anything Ledrew says after he finished third in the Toronto mayorality race.

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