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Plain as the Nanos on your face (39/24/19/9/8)


 

CPAC-Nanos Poll: tories lead grits by 15 and pull ahead in ontario; ndp moves into second in west

Conservatives: 39 (-1)

Liberals: 24 (-1)

NDP: 19 (-)

Greens: 9 (-)

Bloc Quebecois: 8 (-)

Regional breakdowns, leadership numbers, colourful charts and graphs and Nanosalysis here.

UPDATE: Yikes! I just realized that this post wound up in Blog Central by mistake – it never made it to ITQ Headquarters. I was wondering why y’all were so quiet! Don’t worry, Interns Caty and Well will be punished severely for the oversight.


 

Plain as the Nanos on your face (39/24/19/9/8)

  1. Its time for Mr. Dion to show he really loves Canada and its culture and turn in his French Citizenship and become a “Canadian Only”

    good luck with that

    bob

  2. Wow 2 less points on the leader numbers and Dion is sitting dead on John Turner numbers – ouch! if the trend continues as it has been he will be tied with Ms May at election time. Hmmmm! I wonder if she will decide that encouraging her supporters to vote Liberal would not be as effective as a sudden souring of their little poltical tryst! That would be hilarious!

  3. Look at those leadership numbers for Dion! We hate him! We really, really hate him!

  4. Oh, I hate when the first comment on these posts is too stupid. Slightly stupid is OK, but when it’s just exceedingly dumb, and ruins the whole whole didactic experience.

  5. As nice as these numbers seem, there’s so much variability in the day-to-day figures that I’m wary of the accuracy of constant polling. Look at the swing in Atlantic Canada. The Tories went from having a 6-point lead to being 4 points behind today. It’s better to take these polls with a grain of salt. This isn’t the first time the numbers have swung incredible overnight, according to the pollsters.

  6. *incredibly. Oopsies…

  7. Wow.. check out the Liberals number out West.

    What are the odds that the *Greens* will wind up with more Top 2 finishes in Alberta than the Liberals this election? (Last election it was 18-1, with 9 for the NDP).

  8. Kady,

    Your abiding ability to punify “Nik Nanos” continues to amaze. You have a gift.

  9. What point-spread do we consider majority territory?

    I say 12.

  10. Maritimers lie to pollsters all the time. The only questions we answer with any honesty are “where ya from ?” and “who’s yer father ?”

    And, do they really poll in Alberta ? if so, why?

  11. “What point-spread do we consider majority territory?”

    It depends too much on how the Bloc is polling.. if the Bloc is polling around 7 nationally, then the Conservatives can win a majority without being too much ahead of the Liberals in the rest-of-Canada.

    If the Bloc is polling at 10+, then the Conservatives win at most a dozen seats in Quebec and have to win 140+ in rest-of-Canada for a majority. To win 143 (or more)/233 in RoC, they’re going to need a huge lead over both the NDP and Liberals.

  12. Funny thing about those swings – they are well outside the range of unpredictability.
    What happened in Atlantic Canada for such a big swing (Libs gain 8%)?
    What happened in Ontario (Libs gain 3% on CPC)?
    I’m less concerned with what happened in Alberta – who is second is immaterial – that is almost a Tory bloc…
    but swings like this in Atlantic Canada and Ontario mean seats…
    I note that Nik’s Nan-decided is down from the 18-19% range to 15% now…
    that too is interesting…

  13. Wascally Wabbit:

    What happened is the margin of error. It’s +/- 9.6% for out east, which means that the numbers coming out of Atlantic Canada are about as reliable as an election promise: nice to look at, but don’t make any investments based on them.

    Same with Ontario: +/- 5.6%. Have the numbers actually changed? Despite all the hand-wringing and cheering from the various supporters that would lead you to believe otherwise, nobody actually knows for certain.

  14. Told you those Atlantic numbers he pulled on Monday were outliers.

    But where did that 2% go from the Liberals and Conservatives? Probably margin of error stuff, but still odd.

  15. ITQ – You have transposed the Green and Bloc numbers (Freudian slip I’m sure)

  16. Also, if you look at the volatility piece (it’s on the Nanos site), you’ll find that there really is a ton of volatility on the left.

    (http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-SU08-T330E.pdf)

    Whereas conservative voters have remained generally static, Liberal, Green, and NDP voters arent; for the Greens and NDP, the number who have either shifted (and are thus likely to shift again) and who are undecided is actually higher than the static group. It’s only the Bloc that has remained static among left-leaning parties.

    I’d suggest that this implies what a lot of people suspect: that there is little appetite for a Harper government among a majority of Canadians, but they cannot coalesce around a specific party or candidate.

    Whether this means that there is serious traction for strategic voting is unclear, but it certainly implies it.

  17. And one more point while I’m near-spamming this thread: I’d suggest focusing on the Liberal/Conservative point spread won’t work as a prediction tool in this case.

    It’s quite possible that the NDP will pick up Conservative/NDP seats in Western Canada, especially if they do a big “strategic voting means NDP in BC” push on the last week to scoop up anti-Harper votes.

  18. Hey Demo : that is exactly what is happening here in victoria NDP -> Up and LPC -> Down and is more than likely why both Harper and Layton have been lurking around fishing for votes. As a side note I have now caught all leaders excpet for Gilles and Liz and Steven and Jack are by far and away the superior and getting a crowd motivated. Dion was embarassing especially when he made a joke and then there was this giant silence with people looking at each other and then realize he had a made a funny .. oh by the way it was funny but so very contrived and tacked onto the end rather than used as a tool for a seguay into a point.

  19. Today in Belmont Ontario Mr. Dion said he want to give more money and support to Fire Farters.

    Question: What is a fire farter and isn’t Dion suppose to be against green house gases??

    If anyone can help out let me know, i am not sure what he means???

    thanks
    bob

  20. People, look at the graphs in Kady’s links. Use your imagination and put some trend lines through graphs. The only conclusion you can come to is that it sucks to be Stephane Dion.

  21. Question: What is a fire farter?

    Answer: A real pain in the ass.

  22. Trend lines aren’t useful here. It’s too volatile.

  23. I think there will be a lot of Change after the debates.

  24. Is it just me or have reverential left-lib Nanos commenters become a little more skeptical of the Nanos other-worldly polling powers in the last couple of days? I wonder what has brought this sudden lack of faith?

  25. “I wonder what has brought this sudden lack of faith?”

    Mid-election polls are like Rorschach blots. People see what they want both in the results and in assessing their validity.

  26. Is it just me or have reverential left-lib Nanos commenters become a little more skeptical of the Nanos other-worldly polling powers in the last couple of days?

    Which reverential left-lib Nanos commenters are you referring to? Or are these just the usual strawmen you fabricate in order to feign debate?

  27. Can you get your hands on the 2008 Ontario fishing regulations pamphlet? There’s something I need to look up.

  28. “unstable”

    “margin of error”

    “wild swing”

    Here’s what’s stable, and unanimous across the polling board:

    a massive Conservative lead.

    I thought most folks had gotten past “anger”, through “denial” and were well on their way to “acceptance”.

    I see some have a bit more reflection and inner turmoil to go. The sooner you Liberal supporters get there, the happier you’ll be.

  29. Could somebody please find some traffic for Ti-Guy to go play in.

    BCL’s toadie annoys me more than BCL, and thats saying a lot.

  30. You Conservatives really think you get to control every discussion, don’t you?

    How authoritarian.

  31. You are speaking from experience right Kody?

  32. I thought most folks had gotten past “anger”, through “denial” and were well on their way to “acceptance”.

    I’m still at “This is what happens when the Right unites?….Libertarians and social conservatives? Whaaa?”

    I’m regretting not voting Conservative in 1993, that’s the stage of grief I’m at.

  33. Stop the presses

    The first poll (ever?) has shown that the Grits are in a tie with the NDP. Its Angus-Reid.. but.. the Tory numbers aren’t that far off.. could this really be believable?

    CPC: 40%
    LP: 21%
    NDP: 21%
    BQ: 10%
    GRN: 7%

    See Toronto Star for details(!).

  34. Interesting about the Greens. Everyone afraid of carbon tax supposedly, and yet the Green carbon tax policy is much stiffer than the Liberals – does this make sense?

    Awful thought – Canada becoming extremely right and extremely left…doesn’t feel right.

    Every once in a while in Canada a train wreck happens, but in a positive light – when it does the Conservatives aren’t elected back for decades.

    Anyone paying attention to Layton and his proposals? If they, why are they voting for him? ATM fees – candy to the kiddies – does he not realize Canadian banks are losing money? Softwood lumber thing……is he nuts? Does he know if he can back out? Unions influencing our daily lives?

  35. Sandi – Jack Layton is talking about the economy, which affects people in there real lives, while Professor Dion is talking about saving the planet which as about as remote a topic as it comes. That’s one of the principal reasons the Liberals and the NDP are tied.

  36. Jarrid Dear Boy – these numbers are just what we need to unite the left…
    Watch Nik’s Nanbers on Monday or Tuesday…
    See the strategic voting cut in…
    See Mr Iggy Pop get down on his knees and beg – look I’ll not run to replace Dion if only all you lefties will hug each other…
    Heck – if the Progressive Tories can get in bed with Alliance – there’s hope for the left yet – isn’t there?

  37. The Green Shift Plan booklet is 70 pages long! One pundit said it reminded him of a Masters Thesis. It is very difficult to commmunicate! How will the Professor communicate the Plan during the debates?–he will have 30 seconds.

  38. Wascally Wabbit: Dion considers the Liberals to be a “centrist” party! Why would he unit with the left?

  39. MJH – Because ANY Opposition Party is to the LEFT of HARPER – Heck – Progressive Conservatives are (were?)well to the Left of Harper….
    and if you look at the Greens Economic policies – they are to the right of the Liberals…

  40. Hey southernontarioan : oh it’s believable alright and to truly appreciate it you have to be out west here from my perpsective on(vancouver island)I am watching something I thought would never happen and it’s unfolding right in front of me. Something has happened this election that I have never seen and it’s basically the Liberals have given up here and are back east saving the furniture which is a terrible misstake and now this trend has momentum day by day … it’s as if large chunks of Libs took one look at the carbon tax and said AXE The TAX! -> vote NDP. You hardly see or even hear anything from the LPC it’s all Conservative and NDP duking it out with the Lib’s fighting over who will keep all the signs in their garage for the next election. The local papers and radio are full of comments from disaffected liberals thinking about strategic voting incumbent NDP’ers are running around feeling all very warm and fuzzy with their new found support and if this election turns out to be the way I expect it … what is going to happen is that it will be truly decided here as the last numbers roll into the polls! Exciting times here where the Rock Meets The Water!

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