From our friend Paul Adams, who seems to be everywhere this autumn and who is blogging on these Ekos robo-polls for — well, for his employer, Ekos, I’ve brazenly swiped this damned interesting chart. In return for my larceny, I ask you to follow the link to Paul’s explanation. My own explanation comes below, after the chart…
From our friend Paul Adams, who seems to be everywhere this autumn and who is blogging on these Ekos robo-polls for — well, for his employer, Ekos, I’ve brazenly swiped this damned interesting chart. In return for my larceny, I ask you to follow the link to Paul’s explanation. My own explanation comes below, after the chart…
Voter Retention
|
Reported Vote – 2006 | |||||
Vote Intention – 2008 |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
BQ |
Green |
Did not vote |
Conservative |
84 |
18 |
5 |
9 |
11 |
35 |
Liberal |
6 |
62 |
13 |
5 |
13 |
18 |
NDP |
5 |
11 |
74 |
11 |
6 |
30 |
Bloc Québécois |
1 |
1 |
1 |
71 |
2 |
1 |
Green |
4 |
8 |
7 |
4 |
68 |
16 |
This chart collates some of what pollsters call “cross-tabs” from the latest Ekos Cylon Terminator robo-poll. Stated party support from the 2006 election is cross-indexed with stated party preference in this election right here now. So if you look down from “CPC,” you see that 84% of people who seem to recall voting for the Harper Conservatives in 2006 are now planning to vote for the Harper Conservatives again. Similarly, the NDP seems likely to keep 74% of its 2006 voters, the Bloc 71% of their voters, the Greens 68%, and… the Dion Liberals are on track to keep 62% of those who voted for the Paul Martin Liberals.
Where are those leaking Liberals leaking to? One in five of them plan to vote for the Harper Conservatives. In contrast, only 6% of 2006 Harper Conservative voters are angry enough to plan to switch to the Liberals.
Anyway, Paul Adams has more.