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Projection puts Tories in majority, first time since 2008

Conservatives in line to elect 157 MPs according to LISPOP


 

In case you were wondering how that new Ipsos poll showing the Conservatives way out in front changes the election outlook,  the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, known as LISPOP, has a new seat projection today that puts the Tories in majority territory for the first time since the 2008 election.

The research centre at Wilfrid Laurier University plugged the four latest polls from Ipsos, Nanos and Harris-Decima, all conducted this month, into its model for turning votes into seats, and came up with 157 MPs being elected for the Conservatives. The Liberals would have 68, the NDP 32 and the Bloc 51.

According to LISPOP’s Barry Kay, the outcome if you removed the latest Ipsos poll—which pegged Tory support at 43 per cent of decided voters, compared to 24 per cent for the Liberals—the seat count for Prime Minister Stephen Harper would have been a few seats shy of a majority.

Thinking about battlegrounds. Kay says his latest projection, based on those recent polls, assumes a Tory lead of 10 points in Ontario—enough to make the suburban band around Toronto the richest hunting ground for Conservatives aiming to take previously Liberal seats.

Seat projections are, of course, only as good as the polls that fuel them. And the polls, in turn, capture voter intentions at a moment in time. All of which is mentioned to keep in mind the obvious—campaigns matter.


 

Projection puts Tories in majority, first time since 2008

  1. Very nice reporting, John. I appreciate it.

    "campaigns matter"

    Darn right they do!

  2. There you have it folks – the average canadain again sends a message to Iggy just like last time he started to Talk Big and carry no stick whatsoever : Your Time Is Up Harper = Iggy drops 10 points in polls – You Are On a Tight Leash Harper = Iggy drops another 10 points in polls – We Demand A Reopt Card Harper = Iggy drops another 10 points in polls …. look let's face it folks what we are about to witness here in the next month is an awesome sight to behold it is called ' Liberals devouring their own ' – man it must suck to be a liberla right now – Jack may change his mind about a coaltion becuase the NDP could become the official oppostion – wouldn't that be hilarious :)

    • The NDP should become the official oppostion. They have deserved it more than any other party right now. And it would be an excellent opposition.

      Jack is aiming for that, and I hope the Canadian voter will help him get there.

      • I think it's rather more likely that conservatives would love an NDP opposition as it means they have no challenger in the near future, and can govern unopposed with a majority. On the other hand, when the conservatives inevitably lose power, I'd imagine you'd regret PM Jack Layton.

        I'm not a big fan of governments lurching left and right. It didn't work very well in Ontario in the '90s, certainly.

    • Careful, psiclone. Remember also the last time there was credible talk of a CPC majority, THAT sent a clear message to Canadians and talked enough of them down from it.

      • but that is just it – the ask has been there and ther is no alternative this – the moment the option of a election became very clear – the rats left the liberla ship so what we have now is a clear choice no more ABC no more mickey mouse coaltion Harper or not – all the way yeah team – who would you rather be right now – answer this honestly to yourslef and I think the outcome is going to be very depressing for the LPT

  3. Campaigns matter. An well run organization that is able to bring out their people, data mining, (TACTICS) to have their base show up is critical. How well do you know what is important to your target and how to motivate them to show up.

    Which party has the most loyal base? (Bloc & CPC 80%) -Ekos stated it last week. Many have confirmed it.

    Advertising equality of $ 10-12 M on tv,radio, social media spots won't equalize the playing field if the public don't believe the message is CREDIBLE. (Check with PC Campaign in 1993 vs Reform.Bloc)

    Can the Liberals win on trust or credibility? Blue Red Door dismisses other parties as credible.

    The Liberals ran the BEST campaign in 1993 against a government in the ninth year. The Liberals ran on Jobs and their Red Book. (Hope for a brighter future)

    Are the Liberals running on fear mongering against Canadians losing their "democracy? The PM is out of control and will wreck or make this country "unrecognizable". Canadians won't buy that message.

    NDP ran against free trade, threats to health care. The Bloc and Reform picked up the protest vote.

    Is Canada the best performing country in G7? Are Canadians consumers/business more confident today vs October 2008?

    Are Canadians proud of their country or do we believe the negative messages from the Hill about our military and international reputation and our "dictatorship"?

    Are Canadians are going to clear the air and give themselves four years of quiet in Ottawa?

    • I have an increasing sense that your last point is going to be very prominent in the outcome of this election.

      A couple of other points which may be relevant:

      Voter turn out…how many Liberals will sit at home to watch Ignatieff go down with the ship?

      How "over the top" will the Liberal attack on Harper as "a threat to democracy in Canada" be perceived? I'm betting most people will compare it to the "soldiers with guns in the streets" ad. In any case…it will be the third election in a row where the Liberal campaign pitch is "ooo…scary Harper…booga-booga."

      • I think the constant drone and whine about the evil meanie conservatives is going to cost the LPT BIG TIME! .. in the last few years it has been constant liberal fear and shmear and one psuedo scandal he said she said missing wafer and the like and canadains have tuned it out – the LPT should have engaged in open and honest debate on policy BUT you never heard a sound of it NOT ONCE ! – the tactics in the ol bay st boys basement SUCKS! and now we will see the effect of that strategy

      • In Dec 3, 2008 CPC support went to 46% as Lib-NDP voters said NO to coalition games. This will be the FIRST opportunity for those and others to provide a teaching moment to the political class.

        The polls were showing 60% of voters wanted to wait until 2012. At least 30% of Lib-NDP leaning voters have stated 2012 full term. Canadians are sick of going to the polls because the alleged adults can't play nice the sandbox. This will be the fourth time in seven years we have been asked to spend $ 300 million dollars to play musical chairs.

        I think voter disgust against the manufactured scandals may end up playing a big part in repeating the Rob Ford 8 minute victory on the national scale.

        People are fed up with politics at every level and don't think they will "fix it" if we send them more money. The left are going to get a reality check from the taxpayer.

        We want lower taxes and less waste. The opposition won't run on that platform.

        How much will it cost rest of Canada to pay off the Separatists-NDP MP's to move the Liberals across the aisle in Parliament?

        • So you'll be voting for Ignatieff and the party with the strong fiscal record, then?

          • Michael was out of the country and praising the American leadership for their efforts in Iraq.

            I did not support the illegal tax imposed by the Liberal cabinet for three years on employers and employees with a vote in the parliament. It was undemocratic for them to ignore the constitution.

            The Liberal party talks "social justice" the morality of the need for redistribution of wealth while in opposition but the last time in government Liberals attacked the most vulnerable with massive spending cuts . They gutted Health, Education and Social Services payments to the provinces in order to post a balanced Federal budget. They decimated the military budget and foreign aid. Employment Insurance program witnessed nearly $ 56 billion be removed to fill the general coffers. The Supreme Court ruled 7-0 that the increase in rate for 2001, 2002 and 2005 was unconstitutional.
            http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/2010/11/liberal

            [youtube PspWvRDzcF8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PspWvRDzcF8 youtube]

          • You mean when harper was fighting to get rid of the bank regulations that saved our butts?

      • So you're hoping to ride out the "too dumb to care" strategy? I hope Canadians are better than your prediction!

  4. One problem with the Ipsos poll is that it was taken in a immediate aftermath of the budget presentation and all the hoopla surrounding that.

    I just can't imagine that the electorate has mobilized so drastically given the much closer Harris-Decima poll just last week. I think the tracking polls over several days will be more meaningful.

    • I think you underestimate the sentiment of the Canadian voter that they want this silly House cleaned up. A majority will do that. Canadians are not scared of Harper. They have never been scared of Harper; they have been scared to admit to friends that they might think of voting for Harper, and such peer pressure is no more, methinks.

      • That may be so, but I just meant that the poll's timing may skew the results, given that the government is able to present itself in the best light without opposition.

  5. "polls, in turn, capture voter intentions at a moment in time."

    That's the theory. It gets more and more debateable by the day.

  6. May we get better than the government we seem to deserve!

  7. Decima (March 2011): Con 34% Lib 28% Ndp 17% Grn 9%
    Decima (Election, 2008): Con 37% Lib 26% Ndp 18% Grn 7%

  8. This is definitely the Conservatives' election to win or lose. They have shown remarkable skill in screwing up lately. Will they be able to go 36 days without a huge screwup? We will see.

    • We seem to forget the majpr screw ups the Liberals have been involved in. Adscam still sticks in the minds of voters. This was money taken directly from the taxpayer and it lined the Liberal Pockets and their friends. Now we have a Liberal Senator convicted of fraud. and he collected 700,000. in taxpayers monies even though he was not in the senate. At least Harper did not steal from the taxpayer.

      Contempt of Parliament voted on by an opposition majority.

      Iggy goes on about democracy. what about whipping your members to vote as he sees fit regardless of the constituents wishes.

      Those who live in glass houses

  9. the TRENDLINES say it all in every poll – the real fight upcoming will be who is the oficial oppostion going to be?

  10. The Conservatives need to remain focused and not get too cocky.

    -support in Alberta/Man/Sask remains rock-solid as always, no gains nor losses.
    -support in PEI/NS/NB not likely to change much.
    -support in Quebec not likely to change much, but there's a small chance they might finally pick up a few seats in the Mtl region

    They are posed for gains in three places:
    -a few seats in BC (not many)
    -a few seats in Nfld (not many) thanks to no more Danny Williams and no more ABC
    -a dozen seats in Ontario, mainly near the GTA, this is where they are posed to gain, following the success of Rob Ford in the GTA, the success of Tim Hudak who is posed to unseat McGuinty, the recent election of Fantino, and their improvement in the polls in Ontario

    • In 93 Liberals ran a positive campaign, in 2011 they will be not. They had spent time and money on getting party ready and PC strategy handed them Campbell on a platter.

      The NDP support collapsed and the emergence of two strong regional parties changed the political landscape. The Liberal brand federal and provincial is damaged. BC, Ontario, QC, NB (one term).

      • Canadian Sense
        Your first prediction is so far way off the mark.

        Ignatieff and Harper each kicked off their campaigns with a speech this morning. Guess who went positive; guess who was all negative?

        I submit Canadians mostly don't give a hoot about the ~scarey~ Coalition and Harper just about wore it to threads this morning. He better have something more to offer than stability in exchange for the majority he is now insisting on or he will face a humiliating loss rather than just a reduced minority.

        Ignatieff delivered a speech that could have come from Jean Chretien and did a good job of delivering it. He can only grow on people given so far we have mostly only seen him in QP and the CPC attack ads. Harper is not facing off against Stefan Dion this time.

        • What prediction is off the mark?

          The coalition agreement does not expire until June 2011. Ignatieff has defended the coalition.

          The leaders of each coalition party will tell voters reasons why Canadians they voted no-confidence and caused the fourth election in seven years. Each coalition leader will than try to convince the same voter their platform is better.

          Each coalition leader will have a different platform. Two have already agreed to renew the coalition. Ignatieff is unwilling to remove the Bloc from a veto or control.

          If the Lib-NDP don't have enough seats to beat the Conservatives in a vote on non-confidence will Liberals seek out the Separatists MPs with a deal (for another 2-3 years) to overthrow the mandate of a minority government led by our PM?

    • I agree with scf about the GTA and that is where the Conservatives will make their gains.
      As a matter of fact, if you want to look at a community to judge how the CPC will get a majority, look at Brampton.
      There are 4 seats there—-all held by Liberals.
      If they all go Liberal again or only one Conservative we`re looking at a Conservative minority again.
      If the Conservatives win 2 of those 4 seats they win a small majority.
      If they win 3 or even all 4 seats, and that is possible, then they coast to victory.

      • Brampton is where all Kenney's hard work is put to the test.

        • I can't speak for all Brampton – and esp not for the immigrant community, being a white male of NL descent – but I for one won't be voting CPC.

          Ideally, I'd like to be able to base my vote on the local representative I think would best represent me, but as long as our party and parliamentary structure leaves all but the leaders and their hand-picked favourites as seatwarming proxies, I'm stuck voting for benchwarmer Malhi again.

    • I don't think Harper can count on any seats from NL, even without Danny's ABC movement. Harper has been petty and vindictive toward NL, and NLers have long memories for that kind of thing. It doesn't help that there have been plenty of contentious issues around Marine Atlantic of late (a Fed corp), or that the recent deal with Quebec over oil that straddles the QC/NL border appears to be sweeter than the deal for NL offshore oil, and also leaves a big question about how the border issue will be resolved (from the articles I've read, it sounds like Harper is giving the works to Que, but that could just be a lack of clarity in the articles themselves). And this deal was struck while the requested financial aid for the Lower Churchill undersea power corridor is left hanging; that won't look good either, given the Fed gov't (of both tory and lib persuasion) has a long history of screwing over NL to curry favour in la belle province.

  11. Doesn't matter how they guessed last time. And Angus Reid doesn't do polls they do online surverys…that people get paid to participate in.

    If you want the whole poll, the link is here: http://www.metronews.ca/toronto/canada/article/80

    It lines up with all the other polls lately where people don't want planes and prisons, and are increasingly untrusting of Harper.

    Harper himself warned you not to trust polls at the moment….so did Allen Gregg

    A poll isn't right just because you want it to be.

    • Backpedaling won't work this time Emily. You cherry picked HD to counter the latest poll that shows the Liberals at 24% nationally.
      I don't rely on a SINGLE poll to dispute another poll. That was your trick. This will be a teaching moment so pay attention.

      Campaigns matter. What gives you ANY confidence the Liberals have fixed the problems plaguing them since their loss in 2006?

      Balance sheets?
      By election victories?

      What "metrics" verifiable by a third party do you have that point to a Liberal improvement from the Martin loss in 2006?

      After you have that (information) compare that to the incumbent or if you like the NDP. Have their opponents grown stronger or weaker? (again third party verification Liberal war room spin won't cut it) Good luck

      The Laurier project is neutral and they project 151 seats without latest IPSOS poll.

    • Your argument defeats itself. If past polls don't matter you shouldn't draw attention to them.

      • Not past polls….past elections.

  12. Speaking of Toronto…this poll should scare the Liberals even more than the Ipsos poll does.

    Rob Ford's approval rating as of March 1st? 60%

    Toronto is going to look much bluer this time around.

    • they have some chances in the 905, but not in actual toronto.

        • irrelevant.

          • This is awkward I have provided 2 pollsters that don't share your expertise in these matters. Maybe you should try another hobby?

            Latte futures plummet as Toronto contemplates Ford mayoralty

            For Toronto's urban sophisticates, it was a wipe-out. Total repudiation. Worse than the time they ran out of well-oaked chardonnay at Vintages. What are they supposed to do now, move to Calgary? Buy a leaf blower, for Chrissake? Any day now they'll be erecting barriers at Pusateri's, checking IDs. No one gets in without a credit card from Home Depot.
            http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/10/26/ke

            “From the Tea Party movement in the States, to the continued dominance of Harper's Conservatives on the federal stage, Rob Ford's victory is just another vivid illustration of the new rules of electoral success,” Mr. Graves told The Globe Tuesday morning. “At some point the progressives may want to park their indifference and contempt and take a few pages out of the increasingly successful populist playbook.”

            Mr. Graves nailed the Toronto race. His last poll – released Sunday, the day before the vote – showed Mr. Ford with 48 per cent support compared to 33 per cent for former Liberal deputy premier George Smitherman.
            http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/otta

          • I think you are right !

          • The problem with a few Liberal posters on this blog is they fail to provide links to back up their claims. When they are busted for making stuff up they resort to name calling or running away.

            As I said shortly after the failed coup attempt by the leaders of the coalition when Canadians were given their first opportunity they will punish those responsible. This is it.

            The opposition leaders ignored 60% of the people polled to wait another 12 months. 30% are Liberal and NDP leaning voters.

            What if 1-2% of those leaning voters are not motivated to show up for an election every two years?

          • I get what you are saying about Rob Ford, but municipal political results don't necessarily reflect voters' federal or even provincial leanings. The issues are quite different and at the municipal level the focus is almost always on the person and the platform, not the party (party politics is seldom even mentioned). I don't think you can legitimately infer anything about how people will vote provincially or federally from a municipal election. Do you have any studies that show a pattern of correllations between municipal and federal voting patterns?

            Rob Ford was voted in because people wanted change; they wanted the candidate least like Miller. I work in Toronto; I know Harper haters who voted Ford. Unless you can show strong statistical evidence of a correlation between municipal and federal election results, I'll continue to think Rob Ford's results are as relevant as a psychic's tea leaves reading.

    • You're assuming voters' propensity to vote one way in one election is related to their propensity in other elections. I've never seen any evidence of that. Remember, the same people elect Rob Anders and Naheed Nenshi.

      • Well, Albertans are more likely to elect conservatives, both at the federal and provincial levels. Inner city residents are more likely to elect socialists, both at the federal and provincial levels.

        There is no doubt there is a relation.

    • Sorry, I don't see what Rob Ford has to do with the Conservatives. Voters are able to distinguish between municipal, provincial, and federal politics. Otherwise, why would Ontario have different voter affiliation and support levels for NDP/Lib/Con federally and provincially.

      • Times are a changin'

        The current mood of the population isn't toward liberal policies. Many of those voters who voted Liberal are certainly eager to get back to the ballot-box as soon as possible to rectify their mistakes.

  13. Unless this move by the Liberals is designed to get Bob Rae in as leader, it was a very dumb move.

    None of the faux-scandals matter to canadians. But apparently canadians are sick and tired of going to the polls every two years, and the vast majority wanted this budget passed.

    The problem is that the opposition parties need to cater to their base, and their base consisting mostly of unhinged dirty smelly hippies wants an election as they believe their own delusions about their electoral prospects.

    This is going to be a fun couple of weeks. Watching unhinged Liberals panic and scream is one of my favourite things.

    • This move by the Liberals was an attempt to install themselves as the government by forming a coalition. They know that can't win the election. But as long as the Conservatives are short of a majority, they plan to pull the same trick as they did after the last election.
      This is not idle speculation from Harper. This is the only reasonable motive for them to go forward with the no-confidence vote.

      • I think you're right. Which is why its particularly fun to see them twist themselves into a pretzel around the coalition question.

        what a bunch of slimy crooks.

        • Well, that's why Harper has been telling the public that it's a Conservative majority or a coalition for the last 2 years.

          He can't do another prorogue like at end of 2008. So he cannot stop it. The steps are:
          1. Harper wins, installs minority government
          2. At first opportunity, opposition votes no-confidence, offers option of coalition
          3. Harper goes to governor general to dissolve government
          4. Governor general has not much choice but to install coalition, since another election would produce the same result

          One of Harper's key jobs is to make this known to Canadians.
          His other job is to campaign for the Conservatives.

          • Exactly, this is why the Liberals can't form the government without the support of the Separatists.

            They will strike early and defeat the Throne Speech on the wrong priorities for Canadians.

          • Harper is so deathly afraid of this because it is EXACTLY what he himself would do. Every time he looks in the mirror, he sees 2004 looking back at him.

          • I will say this if Harper tries to form a coalition with the Bloc or the NDP I will not longer vote for the party.

            You?

            It was WRONG in 2004 and it was WRONG in 2008. Any clearer on how it is WRONG to sit at any table with a Separatist?

      • You may want to rethink that in light of Saturday morning's speeches. Ignatieff has unequivocally ruled out a coalition to usurp a party that wins more seats. And Duceppe schooled Harper on his hypocritical declarations that coalitions that involve Bloc support are "illegitimate" by outright calling him a liar and stating clearly that Harper has been applying revisionist history to his shenanigans in 2004.

        Apparently, coalitions with Bloc support are only illegitimate if Harper isn't the one leading them.

        • Are you in support of coalitions than as a matter of record than under any circumstances including lying about and forming one after you recieve the WORST defeat in popular support since confederation?

    • I don't believe the Liberals understand how to win their base back.

      The are faking left trying to steal the NDP, Bloc, Green voters (Red Door vs Blue Door)

      This is the third time they have asked other voters to abandon their parties to stop the Conservatives.

  14. Not much fo a surprise here really.

    Barring anything extraordinary happening the CPC should get a majority out of this. It's pretty depressing but the opposition asked for it, I don't see anyone "out campaigning" the CPC.

    • Iggy will win the debates. And if the media decides to challenge Harper's obvious lies and duplicity, it's wide open.

      • Will You Form A Colation Iggy – Yes or No – YOU SIR HAVE A CHOICE = next stop biggest CPC majority since Mulroney with no liberlas west of toronto – quite possible

  15. So no actual facts to back up your sideshow? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiZRZ0yMqbo

    For the most part, Torontonians recognized one thing about their city after two terms of David Miller: Taxes had gone up but services had not increased or improved.
    Just as Toronto's mayoral candidates left voters lukewarm by talking about how to spend taxpayer's money, the federal Liberals find themselves discussing spending rather than the Harper government's failed fiscal performance. Worse, the Liberals are doing so when Canadians believe there is little federal money for jobs and pensions, and that programs like health care may soon be under siege. And it never helps to embolden Conservatives to label you “tax and spend” Liberals in a tough economy.-Ian Davey
    http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/2010/12/federal

    How much will the coalition cost us to impose a Carbon tax, Cap and Trade and Kyoto Protocol?

    Taxpayers are going to need answers after the Liberals tried to ram through the NDP environmental bill and voted with them to ban tanker traffic to expand the Oil Sands.

    [youtube XiZRZ0yMqbo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiZRZ0yMqbo youtube]

    • Like I said, you don't pay attention. You're too busy being a partisan cheerleader. LOL

      I realize Cons are rattled today, and when they are they shoot from the lip….well, moreso than usual that is. So I'm being pleasant, and allowing you to wave pom-poms on your own.

      I won't be following the campaign.

        • Like I've said many times before….and even on here today….I think the best result would be an even smaller minority for Harper.

          Now take the pom poms out of your ears.

          • What you think is questionable. When presented with facts that refute your argument you resorted to personal attacks about my partisan views on the Conservatives.

            Cognitive dissonance is a typical trait on this blog for Liberals. Best of luck.
            http://www.learningandteaching.info/learning/diss

          • Pom poms all the way, eh?

            Well, that's your problem, not mine.

      • In other words, Emily, you've decided that you're already going to toss your lot in with the lieberals, come hell or high water.

        it's a shame that our electoral process allows for uninformed and deliberately obtuse people to have a voice.

        • Oh I think that at 64 I can make up my mind without listening to a bunch of screaming from either here or the TV.

          So go pound sand.

  16. But , like Coyne said last night on At Issue; the Liberals should rule out the confusion on the coalition.

    Tell the voter if the Liberals will form a coalition or not.

    Democratic language can really be that simple. Ignatieff isn't being asked to write a book on the subject.

    Just a simpe yes or know is what the press was asking for.

    • So you guys don't have to give a simple yes or no when you're asked a question, but Mr. Ignatieff does?

      Interesting double standard.

      • So how much for those fighter jets $ 10 billion it better be in the Ignatieff platform.

        Repairing those crumbling aging prisons better be the budget. Kyoto Protocol-Cap and Trade better be in and fully costed by Kevin Page or all numbers are fake. Your team blew it by throwing everything to PBO as gold standard.

  17. This would project the Conservatives forward on a steady pace:

    If Harper can convince the Canadian who believes in a strong united Canada in which all provinces are provinces and the federal government is that – our federal government – than he will get his majority.

    And when Harper gets his majority, he can then propose as follows:

    Party subsidies can stay, if that would be the best course to take for Canadian political involvement, but the Canadian federal government will no longer subsidize a separatist party to run within federal elections.

    The party subsidy could stay without federal tax support for a separatist/provincial party.

    I would think most Canadian voters could agree to that, because it's sensible to all involved.

    • The subsidy goes to existing parties and hurts creation of new parties.

      Parties need to earn their money based on their platform.

  18. That should read "came very close to voting…"

  19. A little bit strong. I would have softened it a bit. I would have pitched the importance of the unity of nation as federation and speak directly to the fact that the BQ must not be involved in this way.

    Softer might be better…………………..no? Let Harper appear on one of these ads and explain it in his own words. That would work better for me.

  20. Crisis is definitely too strong a word, but I do think the CPC has been unruly. Also I don't think any serious media outlet has been calling the government "dictatorial".
    I do see similarities between the CPC and the Republicans in the US but it most definitely is not a conspiracy, it's Harper taking notes from what has been a succesful model for disinformation.

    What it comes down to is that the CPC was a minority government and lost the confidence of the house of some serious issues. Losing the confidence of the house is a serious matter, that's the way our parlimentay system works.

    • I have no dispute the Conservatives push the opposition around.

      I disagree with your view the MSM does not repeat the talking points from the war room and the language to create controversy where none really exists.

      I agree confidence is required for a government to exist and if the opposition did not believe the information from the government was free flowing as per their privilege than a defeat is necessary.

      How many months did the opposition spend suggesting our military and government were complicit or covering up war crimes, torture?

      Was the media responsible in covering all the issues or did they focus on a few people with unproven allegations as well?
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCKn6EPoCxk

      [youtube SCKn6EPoCxk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCKn6EPoCxk youtube]

      • The detainee affair was, like the prisons and the jets, a matter of parlimentary procedure: the government refused to give MPs what they asked for and so the MPs took to arms. Yeah it got out of hands but that's what politicians do.

        The "MSM", as you call it, reported on the issues being brought up on the hill by elected officials. The media reports on things it believes are important, what the population believes is irrelevant when it comes to media reports; and that's the way it should be. The detainee issue made big waves in other countries where the spectre was raised too, not just in Canada. However Canada was the only country to shut down it's parliament when face with the tough questions.

  21. Excuse me, but that's the "Harper Opposition™".

  22. The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy is chock-a-block full of political science faculty etc.

    JG, why don't you do a story sometime – does the increasing importance of polls and political science depts (and its products /graduates) add or detract from our democracy? There must be hundreds of subjects hiding in the backrooms in Ottawa. I know where I stand on this issue.

  23. Did the Federal and Provincial Liberals openly support candidates to defeat Rob Ford?

    Why are Liberals in denial about the 8 minute smack-down in Toronto against the Big Red Machine?

    Why would Rob Ford not unleash his "Nation" on the left as a teaching moment?
    http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/2010/09/rob-for

    Pollster Nik Nanos: “If you're a federal Liberal organizer, you have to be sh-sh-shaking your head right now.” I really thought he was going to say something else that starts with “sh” there. And ends with “your pants.” http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/10/25/election-

  24. In 1993, Kim Campbell had a 50% rating as PM, the highest in 30 years. Look what happened to her. Polls are whimsical. Only one matters.

    • Are you comparing Ignatieff to Chretien?

      Are you comparing Kim to Stephen?

      1993 saw the Reform, Bloc take out the PC from both ends. The NDP failed in chasing health and free trade. NDP lost 13.5% and 34 seats reduced to 9.

      The Liberals ran a great campaign on their Red Book and Canadians decided they were the only National alternative.

      The comparison is wrong.

      • I think you're reading too much into that. What I took from it is that polls going into an election are not always good predictors of the outcome, and the campaign counts.

        • I may have but I don't rely on Polls just before to make a prediction.

          The Liberals in 1993 were organized and ready. The perfect storm wiped out the PC's. Mulroney left earlier knew he was going to wear it.
          The West and QC broke away from the Mulroney-Campbell PC party. The Liberals ran a very good campaign with a seasoned MP, Jean Chreiten.

          Today the political landscape has changed with the LPOC left in a few cities (Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal as their last centres of influence)

          Campaigns matter and a well run organization with money and boots on the ground is necessary.

  25. That's what they said about Rob Ford, until the first poll in the mayoral race showed him a mile in front of all other candidates.

    • Funny how the federal Libs cleaned up in Toronto when Lastman was winning huge majorities. Municipal politics are almost completely divorced from federal politics. By your logic, 60% pro-Ford should translate into a Conservative sweep of Toronto. It's just nuts.

      Torontonians are generally still suspicious of the Conservatives. And don't complain about it while Alberta is solid blue.

      • I'm not interested in your pronouncements. I'm interested in what the voters think. If you have evidence (any) to support your claims, then show it. Otherwise, I'm not interested.

  26. Hopefully the Conservatives form the next government one way or another – a coalition of socialists would be a disaster, imagine how many people would lose their homes from higher interest rates alone, especially when they would be forced to pay more tax at the same time.

  27. It is totally amazing how my fellow Canadians have lost sight of what democracy is. Democracy doesn't always produce good government. What it does is produce policies that reflect the will of the majority of the people. Proportional representation is good, coalition governments are good. Dremocracy is a philosophy that values diverse opinions. You either get it or you don't. Harper and his Medieval goon squad don't get it. I truly hope this country wakes up and turns away from its stampede toward a new dark age.

  28. The other day in discussing this matter with a golfing buddy, a rock solid Liberal, I pointed out that Chrétien had prorogued Parliament four times and that Pierre Trudeau had prorogued Parliament eight times.

    "I didn't know that," he sputtered.

    "That's because no one told you," I smiled.

    I bet he also doesn't know that in the 143 years since Confederation, Parliament has been prorogued almost once a year on average.

    Marilyn Baker is a freelance writer based in Richmond, B.C.

    Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition February 11, 2010 A10

    The Tories' prorogation until early March is wrong in a theoretical sense. It is arbitrary. It is undemocratic. And it is almost entirely partisan. I don't like it.

    Still I disagree with Liberal House Leader Ralph Goodale that the two-month suspension "disrespects Parliament." It doesn't disrespect the institution any more than the average Question Period with its shouted insults, desk-thumping buffoonery and manufactured hysteria. Besides, prorogation is an ancient Parliamentary convention. It is impossible to disrespect Parliament by using a valid parliamentary rule to adjourn Parliament.

    Moreover, given all the games the Liberals played with parliamentary rules and powers to get their way when they were in office, Mr. Goodale and his colleagues are great ones to talk. They even called snap elections despite having solid majorities –a much bigger and far more expensive deal than a two-month prorogation — just because it suited their partisan ends.
    http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/st

    • Wonderful, so you bring back all this from past to prove that the "MSM" (an expression which confirms your bias) is biased.

      It all comes down to Harper having a minority government and not behaving like one. That's why it got reported on much more: it was a bigger story than when Chretien did it.

      The fact that Harper was dodging questions and stonewalling the majority of parliament whereas Chretien was the majority makes it a bigger story. It has very little to do with bias of the media, but it's always easier to blame the rest of the world.

      • I provided two articles. One with a link which gave an example of bias regarding prorogue.

        You are free to believe the NDP were not behind it. Those printed sign across the country that were similar were just a coincidence.

        The leaders within the movement running for the NDP was just another coincidence.

        The media has done a poor job in reporting for bias. This was a FREELANCE article in the Winnipeg Free Press.

        If you can't understand how it was driven and by whom than your objectivity is questionable in my opinion.

        • Two articles out of… how many?

          There are left-leaning and right-leaning members of the MSM, and a reasonably intelligent person can discern which are which. A good few CTV reporters are CPC-friendly; one so much that he was appointed to the Senate. I know their leanings and know their views often differ from mine – but I watch them rather than CBC because I like hearing a different view. Keeps me from getting smug.

          Reporters are human; their own biases will colour their reporting. But most try to remain fair and balanced. I don't see evidence of and strong leaning one way or the other amongst the press as a whole. If you find one outlet too left, switch media outlets.

          • Sorry; "he was appointed to the Senate" should read "one was…" – I had made a direct reference to Mike Duffy and then removed it, but forgot to change that pronoun.

          • I won't be critical for a spelling or grammar error.

            I am not a professor and delivering quarterly Report Cards.

          • How many sitting days were affected by parliament not sitting during the Olympics?

            Were those days added back?

            Were those committees restarted?

            Work at the riding office was going on duing the Olympics?

            Trips and misions continued as planned during the scheduled holiday and +17 sitting days?

            Examine how CAGW (Global warming is covered) how much money and resources by the media are given to push it vs the other side.

            A few Canadian experts noted in the Climategate emails are on the mainstream how often vs David Suzuki?

            Balance and reporting both sides are you kidding me?

            How many times have the DND staff and experts have been attacked or ignored on their statements regarding Afghan prisoners or the F35 program?

            Does the media ask the opposition parties how much for their planes? Do they ask the opposition to explain Page's statement that the F35 is the only plane that meets the critieria in the SR7?

            The crumbling prisons are being replaced but we hear the term Mega Republican style prisons from the opposition parties.

            What did the experts say in committee about the $ 3 bllion and overcrowding in prisons?

            How much money did the CBC-CTV spend on the witch hunt on Helena and Rahim?

            That letter read into parliament from that Liberal MP about a security breach at the airport?

            Where is the proof and protection from smears allowed behind parliamentary privilege being repeated by the Press as a crisis every other week?

  29. Louise
    A Conservative majority is viewed with distrust and alarm by the actual majority of Canadians. But keep talking it up – there is nothing like it to drive the Liberals out to vote.

    Thanks!

    • In a few weeks you should re-visit this post.

      Polls were clear a Conservative minority is better than a coalition led by Ignatieff. Feel free to check with all the pollsters.

      • <DIV>Harper himself says a Conservative minorityis not an option – either a majority for him or coalition. </DIV> <DIV>And the Harper majority has never polled well.</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Find a poll that shows the coalition as something Canadians care about.</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV></DIV>

        • You must have missed the poll on Dec 3, 2008 that gave the CPC 46% for the stunt being pulled by the coalition of losers.

          In 2009 and 2010 pollster have asked about a coalition with Jack, Bob and Iggy at the helm. Jack polled the best but the polls were clear. Canadians prefer a minority PM Stephen Harper to the clown posse in the left.

          • <DIV>Not the same thing.</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Canadians polled about their top concerns it's healthcare, the economy, jobs, the environment, education, etc. The CPC choose to run an election on this coalition red herring instead of their record and their plan for Canada.</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Why?</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>

          • If this an issues based election the Liberals will be crushed without a doubt. The coalition deal does not expire until two months after the election. Why do you think they triggered it now?

            The Polls are risky for the coalition and the budget was +$2 billion in new goodies with balanced books in 2015-2016.

            Best of luck with the coalition presenting 1-3 different platforms.

            Ignatieff has the worst trust numbers so his numbers unless approved by Kevin Page won't be worth the paper they are written on.

          • <DIV>”Best of luck with the coalition presenting 1-3 different platforms.” <— So not really a coalition then and more like every other election in Canadian history.</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>”Ignatieff has the worst trust numbers so his numbers unless approved by Kevin Page won't be worth the paper they are written on. ” <— Assuming you mean the Liberal platform costing should be approved by the Parliamentary Budget Officer? Even though the government itself has so far passed not managed to do so?</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Look, let's just have a fair fight where the parties discuss issues that we all know matter to Canadians. Yes?</DIV> <DIV> <DIV></DIV>—–Original Message—–

          • As I said earlier if it is the issues and who do Canadians trust the most I have the utmost confidence in the voting public.

            If you eliminate the noise from Ottawa and read the business section, classifieds, housing the incumbent wins.

  30. You're saying you nearly voted CPC in '06 and '08? Well it's obvious you are not a conservative and you will never vote CPC. The opposition parties are tired, corrupt and decrepit of ideas, but you manage to find an excuse to vote for them anyway. Then later on, you justify yourself. Just come clean with yourself and come to terms with your own ideology. You're a leftist. Admit it. Either that, or CanadianSense is correct and you bought the leftist media's spin which has been on overdrive for the last four years.

    A lot of people are moving in the opposite direction… they see how the Canadian economy has outperformed the rest of the industrialized world in both employment and GDP for the last four years, and they are switching to vote Conservative because they know how good we've had it compared to Europe, the US, and all other rich countries.

    • It was fun when he almost voted for them in 06 meaning the ADSCAM Liberals were not corrupt enough?

      The NDP platform to bankrupt and install a socialist country is better.

      The Bloc or Green offered better solutions.

      I have no problem with being critical of the Conservatives but no other party in Ottawa is trying to lower taxes and slow the growth of large centralized government to solve every problem.

      I have ZERO interest in returning to the Trudeau 'Just society' era.

    • The main reason Canada's economy has outperformed the US and Europe over the past few years is because our banking system was heavily regulated due to policies that predate the current conservative government. When the US banks collapsed back in 08 Canada was largely spared precisely because the heavy regulation of our financial sector kept our banks out of stupid get-rich schemes like sub-prime mortgages. The success of Canada's economy, at present, has literally nothing to do with the conservative party.

  31. Speaking of fear mongering… just how else would describe the video you posted? Smacks of Joe McCarthy and the Cold War propaganda.

    • What exactly is not factually correct in the video?

      Why are you comparing an American historical event to a Canadian political ad produced by someone who used quotes and facts about a coalition of three parties?

      Why not try the out of context defense as most Liberals do when confronted with the signed accord in 2008 that does not expire until June 2011?

  32. the ONLY reason the "HARPER GOVERNMENT" has gotten as many seats as they have up until now has been poor turnout. Between the scandals, lack of disclosure and more public interest especially in record breaking spending we may see a different picture. If Canada wanted a con-conservative (not real as in the days of old)_ Majority, I think we would have had one by now. PPl are fed up with Ottawa wasting money telling us how good they are and how much the other suck

  33. Since when is 40% the majority of anything? Our steam-age electoral system produces phony governments. Almost every modern democracy uses some form of proportional representation because it’s the only fair system. People hate the government because we never get the government we vote for.

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