The actual text that will be put before the House this evening at approximately 5:30pm is as follows.
The Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security has the honour to present its second report.
In accordance with its Order of Reference of Wednesday, March 3, 2010, your Committee has considered Bill C-391, An Act to amend the Criminal Code and the Firearms Act (repeal of long-gun registry), and agreed on Thursday, June 3, 2010, to report the following:
That this Committee, pursuant to Standing Order 97.1 (1), recommends that the House of Commons do not proceed further with Bill C-391, An Act to amend the Criminal Code and the Firearms Act (repeal of long-gun registry), because the Committee has heard sufficient testimony that the bill will dismantle a tool that promotes and enhances public security and the safety of Canadian police officers.
There are a total of 304 votes in play—308 seats minus three vacancies and the Speaker, who only votes in the event of a tie. At our last count, there were 153 MPs committed to defeating C-391, 150 MPs committed to seeing it passed. That breaks down, by our math, as follows.
Against C-391: 75 Liberals, 48 Bloc Quebecois, 30 New Democrats.
In favour of C-391: 143 Conservatives, five New Democrats, two independents.
In terms of the pivotal New Democrat dozen—the 12 NDP MPs who voted in favour of C-391 on second reading—six have declared a change in intent (Allen, Angus, Gravelle, Hughes, Stoffer and Thibeault) and five have said they will vote as in the past (Bevington, Cullen, Hyer, Maloway and Rafferty). Only Niki Ashton, who has voted in favour of C-391 in the past, has so far not stated which way she will go this time.
If all that holds—without any unforeseen absences, abstentions or last minutes changes of heart—the recommendation of the standing committee on public safety and national security will be agreed to by the House of Commons and C-391, the bill that would repeal the long-gun registry, will cease to proceed.