Analysis by Innovative Research Group shows key regional advantages for the Liberals. They might explain why Trudeau thinks he can win a majority
(Sean Kilpatrick/CP)
Why is Justin Trudeau preparing to call an election when most pollsters say he’s not in majority territory?
Maybe it’s folly that will lead to Liberal ruin. Maybe the Liberal leader is betting that, unsteady as his chances are, they won’t improve if he delays.
Or maybe he sees regional advantages for the Liberals that a lot of polls are missing. That last possibility is a theory shared by pollster Greg Lyle of Innovative Research, whose latest large-sample survey suggests the Liberals continue to make gains at the expense of the Conservatives.
To produce this analysis for Maclean’s, Lyle combined the samples from monthly national surveys in June, July and August to produce a weighted sample of 6,200 voters. The result isn’t a snapshot of national voter sentiment at a precise moment in time. Many voters’ perceptions certainly shifted during those three months. But a sample this big offers a compensating advantage: much greater precision in identifying trends at a smaller geographic and demographic scale. Using this technique near the end of the 2015 campaign, Innovative Research was able to spot a stronger Liberal performance than had been predicted in most seat projections up to that point.
Lyle provided Maclean’s with a similar analysis in June that suggested the Liberals were competitive with the Conservatives in ridings outside the Prairies that Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer had been able to count on in elections over the last decade. Today’s analysis suggests the Liberals continue to increase their advantage in such ridings, while holding areas of longstanding Liberal advantage.
Even though the NDP is stronger in this survey than in June, and the Bloc Québécois is essentially fighting the Liberals to a draw in Quebec, the combination of these regional effects suggests the Liberals would begin this campaign strongly ahead of any competitor nationally.
Lyle divided his large national sample into 12 clusters of seats with comparable voter dynamics, based on which parties have been most competitive in those clusters across the last three federal elections, and also incorporating regional dynamics in some cases.
Lyle says one bit of evidence that he’s onto something is the looming election call itself. “The aggregators say the Liberals are short of a majority. We think they are comfortably in majority territory. The Liberals can spend a lot more on polling than we can. If their polls say they are short of a majority, why would they call an election?”