Second choices -

Second choices


Matthew Yglesias catches a Conservative ad and ponders the ramifications in multi-party politics.

The interesting thing is that in a multi-party system it’s difficult for the party behind an attack ad like this to reap all the benefits. This makes Ignatieff and the Liberals look terrible, but depending on your ex ante political preferences thinking worse of Ignatieff could turn you into a voter for the separatist Bloc Québécois or the social democratic NDP rather than the center-right Conservatives. And, indeed, over the past week we’ve been seeing a surge in support for the NDP.

On that point, make what you will of the latest second-choice numbers from Ekos. Among those Conservative, Liberal, Green and Bloc voters who have a second choice, the NDP is the leading back-up plan.


Second choices

  1. So will Canadians who are shifting in the polls translate into votes?
    Simply enough, only if they care enough to vote.

  2. I for one am looking forward to my new socialist overlords, because now Jack will pay my rent, my gas bill, my meds, everything. Happy days are here again.

    • LOL if Jack paid all that he'd have been elected PM years ago.

      • He was being sarcastic.

        Socialism is great, until you run out of other people's money. . .

        • So is capitalism, but Thatcher never realized that.

  3. Colby Cosh tweeted about this Matthew Yglesias blog post a few days ago, with the following observations:

    Funny thing: when people in other countries see the Cons. "American Democrat" ad, they find it "unbelievably devastating".

    We're gonna look back one day & wonder how someone who has NO answer to "why'd you refer to yourself as American?" could lead the Liberals.

    I figure this day will probably be sometime around late June.
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    • Sorry, that page doesn't exist.

      And neither does your argument.

      • First, I wasn't making an argument. Second, here's the correctly formatted link:

        • That's good, because this whole thing about Ignatieff's nationality is the same as the 'birther' crap about Obama.

          Silly and irrelevant.

          • only you could tie those two things together . . .

          • They're exactly the same thing.

          • not at all.

    • Is refusing the premise of the question the same as having no answer? (It's a trick question)

  4. Weren't the Ekosians a race in Star Trek?

    (I'm sorry this has nothing to do with politics and is a blatant attempt to make friends with people I don't agree with and find some common ground. )

    • I pestered the $hit out of Emily but it didn't work, I don't think…

      Anyway, I'll be your friend, if only cos you kinda look like James Moore. :)

      • Jebus! I googled it- they were the race of Nazis in space!

        • Which, we can all agree, is the best place for them.

        • To be fair, humans polluted the Ekosians and put them on their Nazi ways. It wasn't the Ekosians' fault. Blame John Gill.

    • People on Star Trek who did anything as a blatant attempt to make friends were always dropped into a vat of boiling oil….good thing this isn't Star Trek.

  5. That only works if Forum Research is the only poll you read.

    • I personally don't believe any of the polls, and haven't for about a year.

      And now even pollsters are telling us not to believe the polls.

      But if you're going to come on here and talk polls….then take ALL of them into account, not just your favorite.

      • If you don't believe any of the polls and haven't for about a year, don't quote them.

        But if you're going to come on here and talk polls….then take ALL of them into account, not just your favorite.

        • I will quote them in return everytime you try to convince people that only your poll and your take is the correct one. LOL

        • don't bother, Atchison. She is never wrong, and will change the topic so you can never box her into a corner.

          • well… there was that ignatieff-at-the-hockey-game thing….

          • I thought that she just stopped posting on that. Did she actually say that she was wrong?

  6. After the 1993 election there was some analysis that the NDP's very effective "Angry Actor" ad, a black and white bit with youngish people railing against the Tory government, was quite effective in making people remember why they disliked the Mulroney/Campbell government. The effect appeared to be to drive them all to the Liberals, as the only vehicle to get rid of the Tories. That reduced the NDP to 9 seats.
    The Liberals now find themselves in similar territory, as attacks on the government may drive voters to the NDP, and attacks on the NDP may drive those voters to the Tories.

  7. The best recent example of this phenomenon were the 2008 French Language NDP ads. Kids crying, soldiers goose-stepping, hands in bondage, mushroom clouds, a Darth-Vader like appearance from George W. Bush — the stuff was a paranoid leftie's wet dream.

    It scared the bejesus out of Quebec left-wing voters…and drove them right into the arms of the Bloc Quebecois.

    To their credit, the NDP have learned from this mistake.

    • I can't wait for the ad showing Harper with smoke coming out of his ears. ;-)

  8. In Alberta the person who most Conservatives chose for their 'second choice' on the ballot for the new party leader won. It was a stupid system, and the person who had the third highest support won. And we regret it still.

    Hope this doesn't happen on a national level.

  9. Look closely at the various polls by province/area. On Monday this is all; about seats, where the meaning is better derived locally, not in "feel-good" Layton stuff. The NDP would be an economic disaster for Canada

    I fguess we'll see next Tuesday.

  10. In my riding, after a commanding early lead, the CPC lawn signs are now near evenly matched by the NDP's. Will probably go CPC anyways. No sign (sic) of the LPC.

  11. No matter which poll you pick, the fact remains that +/- 2/3 of Canadians do NOT want CRAP to lead the country.