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Some of our comment-board regulars will be gloating


 

And they’ll have some right to. The Conservative share of the popular vote in Quebec is up — a bit more than a point higher tonight than in 2006, as I write this. But it’s the Liberals who seem on track to pick up a few seats (their vote is up not quite 2 points). Mulcair’s in trouble.

It should be noted that the Conservatives’ Quebec vote is well down from their pre-writ high, and they do not seem to have picked up any seats there. (switching a gain for a loss somewhere? I’m having a hard time figuring out the CBC website).


 
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Some of our comment-board regulars will be gloating

  1. Two words to rile up the ConBots – who are probably too engrossed in the beer and popcorn to care…
    No majority…
    Two more to worry them…
    Possible coalition…

  2. Any bets on who the Conservatives will try to buy a la Emerson to get their majority?

  3. Frankly, they have so many options….

  4. Fortier is losing :)

  5. I can’t believe Harper won his seat. I really felt this was the year for change.

    The internet is the only place I can say such things with a straight face….errr…..without anyone seeing my face. I think I actually saw my non-Harper vote counted on the ticker!

  6. On a more serious note. Can we now ask what the point of this election was and expect answers?

  7. Wabbit– While I think the Tories would have loved a majority, I think that was the hope, but not required. The financial position this will put the liberals in, not to mention the leadership issues, will see that this is essentially a majority government anyway (from a pragmatic point of view). Next, even if the GG was inclined to allow a coalition first dibs in governing—something I doubt very much—, it is looking like the Liberals and NDP will not have a larger number of seats than the Tories. A coalition with the Bloq will be unacceptable to all.

    I think the interesting question today is whether or not we will see any of the old Liberal cabinet ministers sniffing around. Could we see the return of Manley, Tobin, Rock or Copps? I for one don’t see either of the two princes-in-waiting as likely heirs to the Liberal thrown.

  8. Well, this comment board regular is busy saving the google cache from a now-disappeared October 9 post of a certain Blog Central poster whose comments have been curiously closed ever since that disappearance.

  9. Andre Arthur is a sure thing – Tories didn’t run anyone against him.

    “Any bets on who the Conservatives will try to buy a la Emerson to get their majority?”

    My guess? Jack Layton. He’s been bought before, by Martin, after all.

  10. Dr. Spaceman wins! Star candidates are clearly teh awesome, it only takes 8 or 9 tries to prove it.

  11. Whoo hoo! :)

    Team up with the treasonous Bloc and try to form a government, I dares ya!

  12. “this is essentially a majority government anyway (from a pragmatic point of view)”

    Joe. Clark.

  13. Andrew do you honestly think that a comparison of Harper and Clark is apt? Further, there were different financing laws at the time and no Bloq. These all have huge effects on stable coalitions (from a game theoretic perspective, something you know Harper and Flannagan have looked at; In fact Flannagan taught a 3rd year poli sci course on it at the U of C.

  14. CTV just won Dion the election.

    Wishful thinking gone poof, mister Potter. Literally, as the above quote, part of a post generating 368 comments (per Google cache), throws up 404’s around here…

  15. Sam Bulte “stood aside for Kennedy” said Don Martin. Everyone else said “was toxic because of her bowing and scraping to the media companies over copyright”

  16. Steve, I’m saying that that philosophy could blow up in Harper’s face.

    This was his last best chance at a majority. He won’t get it. The Liberals will be rejuvenated next time, and hungry.

  17. Wow, you’re right, madeyoulook. Gone.

  18. Conservatives aren’t the natural governing party in many places in this country, including Ontario. Conservatives would be dreaming to suggest they can count on the seats they hold here, if they are facing a stronger Liberal leader.

  19. Andrew, against Bob Rae, I definitely think it is possible. Against Iggy, I don’t know. Older cast, Manley, Copps, etc… probably not. It won’t help that the economy will tank in the next few years (I don’t blame any party for this, it is a result of the times, not of a party).

  20. Several things became apparent during this election campaign:
    -Dion is a fool
    -Elizabeth May is a liar
    -Danny Williams is a blowhard
    -O’Malley is a Liberal shill
    -Potter is a hack
    -Only a couple of the Maclean’s bloggers managed to report events objectively

  21. “Andrew, against Bob Rae, I definitely think it is possible. Against Iggy, I don’t know. Older cast, Manley, Copps, etc… probably not. It won’t help that the economy will tank in the next few years (I don’t blame any party for this, it is a result of the times, not of a party).”

    That’s why I don’t think the Libs will pick Rae.

    Given that Ontario are headed to some tough years, and that the CPC’s crumbs thrown recently $80 million for an auto plant, etc. are likely an aberration, we’ll see.

  22. “Conservatives aren’t the natural governing party in many places in this country, including Ontario. Conservatives would be dreaming to suggest they can count on the seats they hold here, if they are facing a stronger Liberal leader.”

    I agree that the Tories aren’t quite their yet, but I think their Ontario position can be defended.

    1. I don’t think Dion was an inherently weak leader (remember this – I’ll bet Andrew Coyne wishes I don’t: http://www.dominionpaper.ca/weblog/2006/02/dionmania.html). I think the Conservatives made him one with attack ads, and he let them. Because of how broke the Liberals are (and will be moreso after a leadership race), that may continue.

    2. The Tories won 39% of the vote in Ontario. By way of comparison, Ernie Eves won 35% in what was a terrible campaign. Harris, the most right-wing premier in Canadian history won 45% twice. There is a market for right-wing politics in Ontario, especially with a split electorate. Chretien knew that, which is why he cut taxes and balanced the books. Dion tried to galvanize the left instead – he was fighting for the 21% that voted NDP and Green in 2006, not the 36% that voted Tory.

    3. Look at some of the ridings the Tories did pick up – this was a huge victory for micro-targeting of ethnic communities in the 905. Thornhill is probably the most dramatic, and has a lot to do with Peter Kent, but also Lebanon (Kent didn’t swing many votes in St. Paul, either and may not be the huge draw he is presented to be). Leads among new Canadians are part of what made the Liberals so strong there, and that is increasingly slipping away (and will continue to do so, the longer the Tories are in power).

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