I’m glad I took pains to say trends can change when I gladdened the hearts of Conservatives everywhere with this blog post only two days ago. Just about all the trends have changed. Nanos now has the Conservative top-line national vote down to essentially where it was in 2008; other national polls put that vote lower. In Ontario, Nanos has the NDP vote above its 2008 level on an upward trend. Other polls I’ve seen put Conservative vote in that province lower than Nanos does. The NDP vote is entering territory where it starts to endanger Conservatives in some place, where before it mostly helped them by splitting the anti-Conservative vote with the Liberals. I won’t guess about where this is going, because I have no reason to believe support for every party is done shifting radically.
I’m glad I took pains to say trends can change when I gladdened the hearts of Conservatives everywhere with this blog post only two days ago. Just about all the trends have changed. Nanos now has the Conservative top-line national vote down to essentially where it was in 2008; other national polls put that vote lower. In Ontario, Nanos has the NDP vote above its 2008 level on an upward trend. Other polls I’ve seen put Conservative vote in that province lower than Nanos does. The NDP vote is entering territory where it starts to endanger Conservatives in some place, where before it mostly helped them by splitting the anti-Conservative vote with the Liberals. I won’t guess about where this is going, because I have no reason to believe support for every party is done shifting radically.