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The Bananos Splits Adventure Hour (32/28/22/8/10)


 

Grab a dataspoon and dig in

Conservatives: 32 (-1)

Liberals: 28 (+1)

NDP: 22 (-)

Greens: 8 (-)

Bloc Quebecois: 10 (-)

Undecided: 18 (+1)

UPDATE: Let’s give a big ole ITQ weekend welcome to special guests Harris Decima (35/25/18/11/9) and Ipsos Reid  (34/29/18/9/8)!  


 

The Bananos Splits Adventure Hour (32/28/22/8/10)

  1. Ipsos-Reid in the National Post/Global poll also has the Cons only leading by 5 (which I wont link to because it puts my comment here into purgatory) but Kady has the link if she wants to post it as well.

    Conclusion? It’s volatile out there.

  2. The more polls I see the more I can’t wait to find out how they actually compare to what comes out on election day. They could be acurate but I have a sneaking suspicion we may be quite surprised on the 14th. If that is the case then people will have spent lots of time arguing about smoke. Oh boy, just three more sleeps till the big day!

  3. Kady – this is what I expected yesterday.
    See what happens when you take off and leave Nik to Nok along on his own…

  4. There are two factors in these numbers that we have to look forward to…full moon on 14th…and mercury which has been retrograde in libra for three weeks moves forward on 15th….

  5. Ipsos had a 14 point Conservative lead nationally last week.. and now down to 5. It may come down to get out the vote and local races as to wins this thing and by how much.

  6. Kody’s call:

    Nanos (like Zogby in the last US election),
    will miss this one horribly after nailing it the last time out.

    His downfall will be over-reporting/under-reporting Lib/con votes.

    Others will as well, but Nanos will be the worst offender. His downfall will be reliance on exclusive cell phone users who mostly comprise the 18-25 market and who, in the best of times, do not vote and who, in an election where turnout is predicted to be among the lowest in recent history, are the last group one should be actively targeting.

    Remember Outremont and Quadra? It was the turnout. Voter apathy killed the Liberals and fooled the pollsters.

    So, in years gone by, when you’re sitting around the camp fire telling your grandchildren about major historic events, and the little ones ask:

    “Grandpa, who was the wise man who called it right when others were wrong? Who Grandpa, who was that smart, smart man?”

    You remember to tell them:

    “He went by the name……..Kody.”

  7. Kody, you may turn out to be the prophet in our midst, but if that’s the case, I’m not sure if it will hinge on low voter turnout, since byelections *do* historically tend to be like that.

  8. Looking at the chronology – these polls were taken on 10th – and presumably factor in the tape “can we start again” fooferrar…
    which may be reflected in Dion’s competence numbers being down in the Leadership section.
    I haven’t yet seen the advanced poll numbers yet – be interesting to see if there are signs that larger numbers than usual will vote – that should be a bad sign for Harper – I would think!

  9. Say, isn’t it a ritual in the States for the President to “pardon” a turkey on Thanksgiving to live for another day?

  10. Kody, will you also own up to it if your prediction fails?

    As I recall.. by the end of this week.. Nanos was supposed to have the Cons up by 16, according to your fearless prdiction last week. That didnt work out too well.

  11. A “prophet” you say? If you only knew, Kady,

    if you only knew.

    (cue any dramatic music of your choice – preferably of the quasi-militaristic genre)

  12. Is it okay if I use the Pushing Daisies score instead?

  13. Scott,

    by that do you mean if I scurried away like a frightened little mouse,

    or did I bravely return with my own bold take on what I thought was transpiring?

    It was the latter Scott.

    It was the latter.

    (cue…….awe you know the drill)

  14. Wascally,

    I heard two separate news reports that showed advance polling was at historical lows.

  15. There is going to be a lot of very upset Liberals wednesday morning and that’s for sure. If you think the Conservatives have been giving Dion grief just wait a few days then the party will slowly but surely start to devour it’s own – nature is tough that way – only the fit survive!

  16. Wayne- Congrats buddy! You just managed multiple consecutive sentences without blatantly trying to pump up the NDP in a sad and obvious attempt to split the left vote! The first step is always the hardest, keep it up!

  17. Ummm Forgive me for seeming obvious, but the Nanos numbers add up to 118. And both HD and IR only add to 98. I could understand 2% for MOE but…seems coincidental that the undecideds in Nanos are 18…
    Anybody wanna help me out here?

  18. The 100% is the percent of decided while the 18% is undecided. That means that there is lots of room for percentage changes. Who can tell where the undecided will go??

  19. Seat projection based on the Nanos numbers.
    CP: 102
    LP: 96
    NDP: 56
    BQ: 54

    If Nanos turns out to be right Harper has already lost this election and we’ll see a Liberal/New Democrat coalition.

  20. Back to the party circuit:

    1.Jacko-beat-the-tom-toms Layton;

    2.Nathan-I-think-we’re-most-excellent-Cullen;

    3.Judy-I-especially-love-cake-Wasylycia-Leis, Winnipeg North … in her role as Marie-Thérèse, suggested the seniors, who had been screwed during the Income Trust Debacle, should be “permitted to eat pastries.”

    Memorialized, by Macleans, for posterity!

    Il n’y a pas de l’avantage d’être socialiste si vous n’êtes pas parmi l’élite.

    http://forums.macleans.ca/uploads/1366/1176482151.11.upload1.jpg

    http://forums.macleans.ca/uploads/1366/1176482087.3779.upload1.jpg

    http://forums.macleans.ca/uploads/1366/1176482061.2997.upload1.jpg

    Can anybody recall whether Beethoven had socialist leanings, or was that only when he was answering Montezuma?

    Some have commented to the effect that these rolling thunder polls are the be-all, end-all.
    I have a different place reserved for them come Wednesday morning.

    https://zone.artizans.com/images/previews/DEA1566.pvw.jpg

  21. Yes, Ryan, Wayne got the memo a day late.

  22. Kody

    wee, sleekit, cow’rin’, tim’rous beastie
    O what “prophesies” in thy breastie!
    Thou need na start awa sae hasty,
    Wi’ bickering brattle!
    I wad be laith to rin an’ chase thee
    Wi’ murdering pattle!

  23. kody, in deference to our host I’ll be polite when I ask:

    [re Nanos numbers] “His downfall will be reliance on exclusive cell phone users”

    Is this correct? I thought Nanos polls cell-numbers as a fraction of his total responses.

  24. Ian, I believe Kody is referring to exclusive users of cellphones (don’t have a traditional landline). Kody hypothesizes that these people turn out to vote in lower numbers, and are disproportionately Liberal in voting intention.

  25. Kody…and no cheatin’: who is Wascally invoking?

    Remember…no cheating.

  26. Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Wow. Pretty low. You get mad that Duffy raises an interview which Dion did, so you call him “fat man”. Classy.

    He is fat. Morbidly obese. I call the idiot “The Gibbering Jaba the Hutt” or the “Talking Beluga.”

    …remember when that sourdough mother reduced Margaret Trudeau to tears?

    He’s a pig.

    Moderate this, Macleans.

  27. Remind everyone you know to vote, make sure they have the proper ID with them listed in the Elections Canada mailer ‘New Identification Rules to Vote’ (cardboard stock 4 panel foldout).

    We’ll keep this country sane and progressive yet.

  28. A poll that shows Tory support at 32% doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. Is the electorate really this volatile? Does anybody think that the Tories will actually end up with 32% of the popular vote on election night? I know I have a hard time believing it. Maybe it’s just me.

  29. “Does anybody think that the Tories will actually end up with 32% of the popular vote on election night?”

    not me. I think they’re in for a significant number of no-shows.

  30. Ti-guy…Kody? Cheat?
    Perish the thought!!!
    Just ask if him if Jan 25th is closer to Feb 14th than it is to Oct 14th…

  31. Polling “on the ground” in battleground ridings,

    is NOT showing a drop in conservative support to 32.

    To the contrary.

    I know, I know you think I’m just spinning. The reports from those campaigning are painting a very different picture than Nanos.

    CPC support is, shall we say, motivated,

    to put it mildly.

    Oh, one more thing, my prediction that Nanos will blow this is contingent upon him not doing a massive cover-his-butt upswing for the Cons on the last day of polling.

  32. Hmm, yes, the most objective analysts are definitely CPC canvassers.

  33. Is it time to toast the haggis yet?

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