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The Facebook by-elections


 

Keeping in mind Facebook’s predictive powers, the current tallies show the Liberals ahead in Vaughan, the NDP up in Winnipeg-North and the NDP leading in Dauphin. That last one would likely count as a shock.

Those otherwise interested in this month’s contests are best directed to Pundits Guide’s comprehensive by-election headquarters.


 

The Facebook by-elections

  1. Prime Minister Justin Bieber, 15,546,743 fans on Facebook. Just sayin'.

  2. Aaron: Off topic, but it looks like Don Martin's recent columns on McKay have gone down the memory hole…

    Don Martin: MacKay may Fly Emirates to dog house
    National Post – 2 hours ago
    But in a hyper-sensitive Conservative government where optics mean everything, a senior cabinet minister sporting a 'Fly Emirates' airline ball cap in …
    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/11/19/do

  3. Hope springs eternal, I guess. I'm skeptical about Facebook's usefulness as a Canadian by-election predictor.

  4. It makes sense that the liberal candidate for Vaughan would have a lot of supporters on facebook because it is in the GTA but I find it unlikely that very many of thoese supports actually reside in the riding. Most are likely to be Young Liberals who live in downtown Toronto.

  5. Yes, because the young are well known for their extensive involvement in politics and regularly take the time to pay attention to candidates and elections outside their immediate line of sight…

  6. Don't interrupt the talking points. Liberal support is always organized by the Toronto Elite. They're all drinking Timmies and sneering at the Caramello Connservatives, right now!

  7. Can you look on the facebook page and tell me if I'm wrong before insinuating that I am based on demographics of voter turnout. If you take a look at facebook membership for politicians I think you will see that the majority are under 30. Also, if you take a look at those who volunteer for political campaigns or who work in Minister's Offices you will find a significant number of them are under 30.

  8. I'm not talking about elites silly. I'm talking about Young Liberals (e.g. Ryerson and York students or recent graduates, party staffers, Jacob Mkysartarian). It's a very different group then say U of T professors who speak on the Agenda and Toronto Star editorials….

  9. Seriously, you can't say "I find it unlikely that very many of thoese supports actually reside in the riding" then provide "Most are likely to be Young Liberals who live in downtown Toronto." as a follow up.

    It's your gut feeling, followed up by opinion. Once we question your statement, you're supposed to offer a plausible explanation for what you feel/opine that way. facts would be great. You're not allowed to say "prove my unfounded asserion wrong with facts". That's still your job.

  10. haha I spelled "those" wrong…

  11. As of 10:15 PM I cannot browse through the 504 people who "like" Tony Genco but facebook offers snap shots of 6 at a time. Unfortunately when I hit refresh I tend to get the same 10-12 people.

    I can tell you that this includes the University of Waterloo Young Liberals, a young individual residing in Winnipeg, Manitoba, a young individual residing in Vancouver, renowned Torontonian defence lawyer Peter Zaduk (I have no idea if he lives in Vaughan), a number of individuals who specify Toronto as their current city and a number of individuals who do not specify their current city. I do not see anyone in my limited sample who indicates they reside in Vaughan (though I admit people limit their public profiles). I would say half of these individuals were under 30 but I'm basing this on their profile pics and high school and university graduate dates.

    Also checked out Jacob Msyartinian (sorry Jacob for spelling your name wrong earlier) and he "likes" Tony Genco.

    I stand by my gut feeling and opinion.

    How many of the 504 did you think was made up of grassroots individuals who reside in Vaughan?

  12. Thanks as always for the very kind referral, Aaron.

    As I've written on my blog, I'm just collecting the data so that we can validate the US study in Canada (or not). I suspect that any candidate without the organizational depth to do well in Facebook counts is NOT going to win, but I'm not sure that being slightly ahead of someone else is sufficient to predict a win either.

    I'm coming to believe for other reasons, however, that the Dauphin seat might provide the surprises of the evening. I don't know if the eventual winner is in doubt (there's very little available coverage of the race at the moment), however the NDP is running a full-blown campaign up there. I'll be writing more about this riding in my blog in coming days.

  13. Did you do the same exhaustive research of the elites who support Fantino, because my own cursory isolation of his supporters have turned up a middle aged white guy in Calgary, a rural handcuff salesman from Steinbach, MB, a guy who looks like he's the CEO of Gun Lovers of Kindersley, SK, and a senior lady from Toronto. Maybe Fantino's facebook fans are all just avoiding the group in solidarity of his (and Harper's) anti-meeting-people and talking-in-public campaign…

  14. I would hardly call it exhaustive research…. but no I didn't look at Fantino's facebook page because the whole point of my original post was that it made sense that the liberal candidate (already forgot his name, can't be bothered to scroll up to remind myself) would have a lot of supporters on facebook because of the proximity to Toronto.

    But thank you for further driving home the point that it does not represent voter intention in a riding.

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