Alice Funke considers the possible predictive value of yesterday’s NDP fundraising numbers.
Alice Funke considers the possible predictive value of yesterday’s NDP fundraising numbers.
If the 2003 NDP leadership race is anything to go by, a candidate’s share of the overall funds being raised for the contest could predict his or her first ballot vote-share to within 1.5 percentage points … That being the case, roughly half-way through the 2011-2012 NDP leadership race, Brian Topp and Thomas Mulcair are leading the pack. With 23.6% and 20.4% of the total take respectively, the two early front-runners represent 44% of all the funds raised to December 31, 2011 between them.
Peggy Nash, Paul Dewar and Nathan Cullen are behind with 15.1%, 13.1% and 12.0% (representing another 40% of all the leadership fundraising to the end of 2011), while the other four registered candidates trail below 7%.