125

The Tories are in trouble


 

Ignore the daily squiggles of each individual poll — they’re meaningless noise. But average them all together, track them over time, and a picture emerges. And it adds up to trouble for the Conservatives.

It’s disturbing enough that both Harris-Decima and Nanos now have them at 34% — the first time either pollster has put them below 35% since the campaign began. A week ago, Harris had them at 39, Nanos at 38.

But it’s the overall trend that should really have Tories worried. The chart below tracks the daily average of all of the polls taken since the first days of the campaign. It doesn’t take a statistician to see what’s been happening.

I know, I know: a few days ago I was pointing out that all the parties were within a percentage point of where they started. But that’s no longer true of the Tories, and in any case the better comparison point may be with where the parties were after the first week. Both the Tories and the Liberals have dropped several points since then — the difference being that the Liberals seem to have arrested their slide. (The NDP and Bloc started badly, but have both come on since then — only to hit their apparent ceilings.)

Another warning sign for the Tories: Stephen Harper’s leadership edge over his rivals, once the Tories’ ace in the hole, is eroding. Nanos, Harris, even Angus Reid (who puts the Tories at 40%) all show the same thing. Here, first, is a graph of Nanos’s composite leadership “scorecard” over time:

Still a ways ahead, but Dion and Layton are closing.

Now here’s Nanos’s “best prime minister” data:

 

Again, a slow deterioration, with Dion’s numbers recovering.

Now here’s data from Harris-Decima, showing “positive feelings” towards the various leaders:

Harper’s the blue line in the middle. While this chart is less favourable to Dion, the striking thing is that Harper’s numbers are the only ones to have declined in the course of the campaign. Angus Reid’s numbers show the same.  

The debates don’t seem to have helped: even in the English debate, which Harper was said to have “won,” respondents in Ipsos’s instant poll said they had a lower opinion of him as a result of his debate showing  — the only leader to suffer such a fall.

I don’t want to make too much of this. But if you’re running a policy-lite “leadership” campaign, and the air is leaking out of your leader, you better hope you can get to election day without crashing.


 

The Tories are in trouble

  1. So, maybe Dion did help his cause in the debates after all? And, maybe it wasn’t “advantage Harper” like all the talking heads expoused. Maybe….

  2. Maybe Ipsos should have polled the whole English debate rather then just the first half… and maybe the media should have mentioned that little detail when they were crowing about Harper winning the debate.

    Maybe he didn’t “win” at all.

  3. I don’t think the Conservatives truly understood the free ride they were given by the media in the last two elections. Now that they’re in power they’re getting a taste of what the Liberals received and they’re clearly unprepared for it. I think they truly bought into the liberal media bias meme and believed they were already getting the worst the media can deliver.

  4. It really comes down to Ontario.

  5. And speaking of Ontario, this is something I never understood.

    Why wouldn’t Dalton McGuinty openly endorse Stéphane Dion? Considering the treatment he has received from Stephen Harper and his Government, what was there to lose?

  6. Andrew, completely divergent focus, though not unrelated topic… but did you read this:

    http://blogues.lactualite.com/hebert/?p=88

    Anyone who ‘counted on it’ is obviously out to lunch, we are way to far off.

    But, what are your thoughts on such a coalition, being it any combo of the parties, as an alternative strategy (alternative to the more formal efforts of BC, ON, NB etc) to move towards PR?

    If two parties can be convinced and are anywhere between ‘not-disastrous’ to ‘great’ at it, you think we move closer to a shot at PR?

  7. AC,

    If you are right,I fear for the country. If Toronto again effectively dictates to the west what it’s government will look like, and by extension imposes a carbon tax (NEP v 2.0) on Alberta, Saskatchewan and BC, all bets are off.

  8. Harper “unscripted” (or semi-unscripted like in the debates) doesn’t come off as the good old sweater-vest wearing guy that they are trying to portray. No wonder he refuses to do interviews where he can’t screen reporters or where he has to take questions from the public. Maybe that should be a news story..

    Should the public be made aware that he doesn’t hold any open events? Is that important information voters should know?

  9. And, anyone who doesn’t think Ontario couldn’t break late for the Liberals, doesn’t understand the dynamics. It’s fluid where it matters.

  10. It’s about time that some national media begin to notice the downward slide of Harper. Canadians are finally waking up!

  11. It’s called incompetence. From Gerry Ritz to Ryan Sparrow, Harper has decided to stick by incompetents in his inner circle rather than mercilessly weed them out. For a guy who has a reputation for ruthlessness, he’s shown a disturbing lack of ruthlessness when he’s needed it most. Gerry Ritz should have been taken behind the barn and shot. Ryan Sparrow should have been dumped out on the street instead of simply “suspended”. (A snot-nosed 26-year-old should never have been the war room’s communications officer in the first place.)

    Also, for a guy who’s alleged “strategic genius” is near-legendary, Harper’s message on the economy has been laughably contradictory. He cannot on one hand preach that he is the best choice to guide us through the tough times ahead (which he is), while on the other hand tell us that the economy is just fine. It isn’t fine. Which is precisely why Dion’s big-spending platform is so ridiculous. But Harper can’t argue that we need a “steady hand” to guide us through the approaching economic turmoil while denying that turmoil’s existence. Depending on how the last week goes, we could very well find ourselves with a Liberal minority government.

  12. It really comes down to Ontario.

    I don’t think so. I think this is going to be decided west of Ontario. The Conservatives have about 20 seats that could fall to the NDP or Liberals.

  13. Ignore the daily squiggles of a single poll — they’re meaningless noise. But average them all together, track them over time, and a picture emerges. And it adds up to trouble for the Conservatives.

    It’s disturbing enough that both Harris-Decima and Nanos now have them at 34%

    Funny. I don’t find that disturbing at all.

  14. Wassim, McGuinty has to work with whomever is Prime Minister. Apparently Charest is working against Harper behind the scenes because Harper supported the ADQ in the Quebec provincial election. That was a dumb thing to do, guessing the winner. If you guess right, then you are okay. The Premier of Ontario should not take such a risk. However, I hope he is doing something behind the scenes.

  15. Why is it that CTV (Canada’s Fox News) only shows the polls that have the Conservatives at their highest (not once have they mentioned the latest Nanos polls)? That or the ones that show the NDP closest to the Liberals.

    CTV is SO obvious. They should change their name to Fox News Canada.

  16. Further to catherine’s point Wassim, if I remember correctly McGuinty did not officially endorse Martin until the final week of the last election campaign. Maybe an endorsement is forthcoming, especially if it looks like the Liberals will win the province again (he is a politician after all).

  17. me dere robert,

    1) yes the public should be made aware of this

    2) i actually kinda disagree with you on the first point. I am not sure that non-scripted harper comes off great, but… the trends start way earlier then debates. so…

    my thesis is the pretty much the opposite. Canadians, with notable exceptions, are 1) not stupid and don’t buy the sweater vest BS; and 2) rather dislike being treated lie we are stupid.

    Had Harper come out and said, ‘we have done X, we wanna do Y and I know some o f you will have concerns or disagree and we can debate that, but we have a vision that looks like Z’…. then we wouldn;t be seeing this.

    I have been shocked time and again throughout this campaign, at what they have shoveled out, whether on matters of substance or on their antics and expected us to swallow whole.

    Never underestimate the electorate!

    I will give you an example. My father has long gone back and forth voting PC and Lib and voted CPC in 2006. He is engaged prob more then average, but nowhere not to the point of not missing stuff.

    When Sparrow slandered that deceased vet’s father, he mistakenly assumed Sparrow had been turfed and thought it suitable. A few days later he read a story and realized he had been suspended. He was livid. He felt the way SH had suggested it had been taken care was misleading and it cost SH real (not flash in the pan; easily regained) points.

    My dad is one dude. But he has lots of friends. The degree to which this stuff has made the rounds across the country is indeterminable but my hunch is that it is bigger than SH and CPC estimate(d).

    Examples issues off the top of my head I think has the same effect (paraphrased for brevity):

    1) Sparrow handling
    2) double talk on the economy (we are fine; minority goverment destabilize)
    3) Dion personal attacks
    4) the Green Shift will result in an increase in price of everything/cause a recession
    5) May shouldn’t be in the debate
    6) arts cuts
    7) Ritz joking about people dying as not important

    there are more…

  18. I’ve got a bottle of scotch (or whatever AC prefers) that says Harper will still be PM.

  19. 8) the fixed election law
    9) not releasing his platform yet

  20. Epodos, I doubt that CTV’s showing the Tories high helps them, either in getting out the vote or in quieting the fears of anti-Tories who would vote (strategically?) against a Harper majority. If I were the Tory War Room, this is about the level of support I’d want on election day – well, maybe a bit higher – and with no negative trends! But by no means above 40%.

    Still wondering what this means on the ground. These national polls seem to mean less and less every year as Confederation comes more and more unglued. Even the Dwarf’s regional breakdowns are very general. I mean “Western Canada” – what does that mean for Winnipeg? “Ontario” – but isn’t Northern Ontario the real battleground? FWIW, I see the Libs are up on the Tories 44-31 in “Atlantic Canada.”

  21. Andrew is employing reverse psychology, launching a “Tories are in trouble” meme so that people who might have been wary of voting for a Tory majority vote Tory because they think they’ll just be voting for a Tory minority. Hence a Tory Majority will be secured.

  22. Jack Layton has the best ads so that explains the rising orange squiggle. Yet so very many NDP’s are going to hold their noses and vote Liberal on the Day. You can’t read about that in the squiggles!

  23. What I think you’re seeing is the (first) plagiarizing incident, coupled with the 4 on 1 dog pile during the debates. A lot of negativity towards Harper in that short period of time, which is reasonable to see reflected in the polls. It will be interesting to see how this pans out towards the end of the week.

  24. Conservatives (I will not call them Tories, having been a Tory longer than the CPC has been around) might be lower now in the polls because people are starting to look at their retirement savings and other investments and have realized that every single major sector in the Canadian market is trading lower now than when Harper was sworn in on Feb 6 2006.

    Some substantially lower.

    All pointing down with energy. That’s CPC energy alright!

    Well done Jim and Steve.

  25. Please dear god let’s hope the slide downward continues. However I wouldn’t want a Dion majority either so let’s really hope for another minority government and some tight leashes.

    After which if Dion loses let’s have a real Liberal leadership convention and hopefully get someone worth voting for in place.

  26. BigCityLib, I hope you were being sarcastic with that. If A/C were such a committed Conservative, I doubt he’d have been quite so critical of Harper as he has been.

  27. Crap, crap, crap. Of course the numbers are changing. They go up they go down. Everyone offers their very enlightened opinion hoping someone will listen. They all sound so informed and solemn. This gives them a reason to exist and a purpose. Sort of like the homeless commission. God forbid they find the homeless homes, then thousands would be out of jobs.

  28. It should be troubling…no denying it. Polls are all over the place but Nanos has it tightening up. Based on past performance, ie 2 and a bit years ago, Nanos has the cred. But past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

    So many factors, turn out, ground game, strategic voting, and most importantly, and AC’s bane, the splits in First Past The Post system.

    Will we get an Ontario Bob Rae like surprise NDP win. Will we get a David Petersen like surprise coalition for Dion, will we get a Chretien like majority for Harper, he won solid majorities based on 38% of the vote.

    Who knows, the platform comes out in two days. If there is nothing extrodinary in it then maybe it will be an issue. I would hardly say the Tories are in trouble, bit this is likely their nadir, they honestly have been drifting the last 7 days. I dont think any other party has any gas left except maybe the Tories. If they dont then they are in trouble, but I suspect there is a major push to come, avoiding the issues in the last couple of elections of drifitng at the end/peaking too early. But I have no idea.

    As for media being in the tank…for sure Andrew is in the tank, for the Free Democratic Party in Germany

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Democratic_Party_(Germany) oh and the PR system that allows them to remain ideologically pure.

  29. Big difference between what people will tell a pollster and what they do in the booth on voting day.

    BCL has a point. I personally would be happy with a CPC minority (say 144 seats), just so an eject button exists.

    When a Harper win seemed like a lock, I was going to donate my vote to the NDP, just to raise their allowance a bit.

    However, if there appers to be ANY chance of an LPC win, I will vote CPC.

    Am I typical?? Who knows.

  30. Should this be surprising?

    And look it seems the CPC youth are trying to stem this drop in support by the only way they know how.

    Austin

  31. The sky is falling! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

    Keep sayin it enough and maybe a few people will believe you.

    There is only one poll that matters…E-Day.

  32. Yes, it’s questionable election analogy time! For much of the campaign it seemed like 1974, where an incumbent minority government pulls out a majority by emphasizing leadership. Could it be 1972 where an incumbent campaign emphasizied “The Land is Strong” only to have people asks “Is it?” And resulted in nearly losing. Or losing, Harper’s enemies might speculate. And should that unforseeable thing actually happen might that not be the best thing for McCain. True, the McCain/Dion Harper/Obabma analogy has all sort of flaws. But, hey! This is silly election analogy time!

  33. So if a Tory majority is out of reach, how do the Libs scare the hell out of the dippers and greens for 10 days?

  34. Granted, the volume is extremely low…

    But InTrade has the Conservatives winning at 97%

  35. Partisan,

    Or is it equivalent to the Tracy Flick election?

    9 days to find out.

    All comes down to momentum in the last week. Have the Tories finished coasting, do the NDP or Liberals have anything left, has the Bloc peaked too early, or locked up their traditional votes.

    All interesting questions that will be revealed on October 14th. But then again, as Paul Wells said…this poll changes everything, EVERYTHING!

  36. Uh,

    Scott Tribe,

    Every 7th word out of the Lib/Dippers mouths is “Bush” and both are serially incapable of speaking for more than 60 seconds without saying “scary and/or hidden agenda”, and you have the unmitigated gall to type fearmongering???????????

  37. Peter:

    The hidden agenda of Harper doesn’t scare us – its the agenda we’ve seen already or what he threatens to do that scares us worse.

  38. “Every 7th word out of the Lib/Dippers mouths is “Bush” and both are serially incapable of speaking for more than 60 seconds without saying “scary and/or hidden agenda””

    The fact is that Harper does believe in a strong neo-conservative ideology of which “Bush” has turned out to be the symbol. The worry is, just as Bush took a mile every time he was given an inch, that Harper takes every opportunity to destroy our institutions. If Harper is given another mandate this trend will continue – a prospect that is even scarier if that happens to be a majority.

    I can imagine Harper if he wins saying something “It’s time to spend some of the political capital”. Which, now that I think about it, could make for a pretty funny political cartoon considering the whole plagiarism thing.

  39. There are two charts that are more interesting than all those leadership/best PM ones. Ontario & Quebec – Harper has been flat to down in those two regions for awhile now. Without them, things become very difficult for Da Leader.

  40. Polls are an interesting phenomenon; we either believe in them or we don’t. We cannot say that months ago the polls weren’t accurute but now they are. Either they count or don’t count. Such is fair play: Consistency must be paramount for understanding to be logical.

    What strikes me as odd (some might say illogical) though is this: months ago, and at the beginning of this election, the Liberals had talked much about the Green Shift. In fact, Dion had declared it to be the main plank on which to nail his political future, but the polls were down for the Liberals. Let us say we can blame the polling results on the Conservative party’s early attacks on Dion?

    Now,during the elections, the less the Green Shift is talked or explained about, the more the polls start looking favourable for the Liberals. Let us say that we can blame the polling results on the Conservative party’s early attack on the Green Shift?

    “Odd” did I say? Perhaps this would be an ultimate irony: talk a lot about your political platform and your party will be held down by the polls; talk about your platform less, and your party will be lifted up within the polling landscape.

    Ironic in that if the Liberals win in this election, they will have been able to do so by having had a platform, the star of the platform being the Green Shift, but having been unable to defend it. Once they hold power, one supposes they would bring in the Green Shift, for that was to be part of the platform, you see.

    Let me get this straight: we will vote in a party who thought it a good idea to put less emphasis on their own platform, the Green Shift, but once in power will bring emphasis back onto the platform by implementing the Green Shift. Why then have voters involved to begin with?

    Kinda like the reverse what happened within the GST debacle of days gone by. Then the Liberals had stayed on track as far as their platform was concerned: abolish the GST, but when in power they did exactly the opposite.

    Now, the Green Shift is downplayed but will be implemented if the Liberals are to form government.

    Why have platforms, someone asks?

    Silly people.
    Silly country: Canada.

  41. “If you are right,I fear for the country. If Toronto again effectively dictates to the west what it’s government will look like, and by extension imposes a carbon tax (NEP v 2.0) on Alberta, Saskatchewan and BC, all bets are off.”

    Hmm, sounds like a similar soundbyte from this chestnut:

    “If you are right, I fear for the country. If Saskatchewan and Ottawa effectively dictates to the rest of us and impose socialized (national) health care on Alberta, B.C. and the rest of us, all bets are off.”

    -hey, is it scare-mongering or care-mongering?
    Nice try, CONbot

  42. Momentum is a key aspect of any election campaign, especially with about a week to go. The Conservatives are clearly losing momentum, and the Liberals arguably could be gaining it (depending on what happens with the polls in the next few days). And the Libs may gain more support if current NDP and Green supporters strategically switch parties to stop Harper, on election day.

    As Coyne says, you can’t read much into the polling at this juncture. But that didn’t stop the folks on today’s CTV Question Period from effectively saying the election was over, and there would be a Conservative minority.

    I would love nothing more than to see the pundit’s be wrong yet again (anyone remember the talking head’s incorrect predictions for the 2004 election?). It ain’t over ’til it’s over.

  43. Thank heavens for advance polls. I have voted, because I can look back at 2 years of decisions and actions by all political parties and their leaders and make an informed decision. I don’t need 6 weeks of politiking and pundits to confirm my decision. I don’t need ads, media partisanship, bloggers of all persuasions, and vacillating polls to affect how I vote.
    I just know that when Putin comes knocking at our Arctic door, and he will, we will need a leader with some male essentials.

  44. A sweater?
    I can assure you bilg that both Dion and Layton are as equipped as Harper, and likely are more believable in both languages than Mr Two-Faced.
    But good to hear the CON talking points are into ‘fear’ mode.

  45. Who owns Alberta’s oil wealth? Alberta? Or Canada?

  46. This looks the same as Sept 13/08.

    Just relax everybody a little debate 4 on 1 bounce ain’t gonna last.

  47. Scott:

    “The hidden agenda of Harper doesn’t scare us – its the agenda we’ve seen already or what he threatens to do that scares us worse.”

    You mean the agenda that Dion supported 43 times?

  48. The grand old Duke of York,
    He had ten thousand men.
    He marched them up to the top of the hill
    And he marched them down again.
    And when they were up, they were up.
    And when they were down, they were down.
    And when they were only halfway up,
    They were neither up nor down.

  49. Gustav: Luckily for Mr. Stelmach, primarily Alberta. Although we do redistribute some of it to other provinces.

    The more interesting question is “Who owns Alberta’s oil?” This question is especially significant when you start considering that the country with the world’s largest military is perhaps entering the first throes of bankruptcy as its debt-based economy topples. As is said, “When all you have is a hammer, every problem is treated like a nail.”

    Do you really think that when under extreme pressure from starving people, the US government won’t consider “securing and nationalizing vital energy reserves” to keep its military might intact? Do you think the US military-industrial complex would allow anything less?

  50. Oddly, “supported” is not the same as “did not oppose”. The question is, should Dion have opposed it? Unfortunately, the realpolitik was that doing so would have been suicidal so close to Canadians having just delivered a very pointed message to the Liberals.

    The question you should be asking, why does Mr. Harper feel so afraid of his own promise to allow MPs to conduct free votes?

  51. DIONMENTUM!

    I guess people don’t view a shrug, a smirk and a tax credit for Timbits as worthwhile economic policy.

  52. bjl: “I just know that when Putin comes knocking at our Arctic door, and he will, we will need a leader with some male essentials.”

    For the record, I believe Putin rears his head in Alaska airspace.

  53. T Thwim,

    “Do you really think that when under extreme pressure from starving people, the US government won’t consider “securing and nationalizing vital energy reserves” to keep its military might intact? Do you think the US military-industrial complex would allow anything less?”

    That is …………fascinating. Please do enlighten us further, what happens next?

  54. Look people. Taka a valium. The worst case scenario remains that the CPC does not get its majority. The CPC will still win this thing. anyway, it’s better to have teh slump 10 days before teh election thatn two days before as happened in 2004 and 2006.

  55. Peter: Obviously that’s the pessimistic scenario, but I would not put it past the realm of possibility for the US to use the threat of terrorism and a need to protect “vital energy supplies” as an excuse to move troops into Canada if things got bad enough down there. I honestly don’t believe they’ll let their military be grounded due to a lack of ability to purchase fuel. Do you?

  56. Francien- You have an interesting point IF you accept that the Libs have tried to bury the Green Shift. If you accept that the recent polls are a result of the debates then your point seems improbable. Dion mentioned the Green Shift every chance he got during the debate. Perhaps people are changing their minds about Dion and the Shift itself because they have now been exposed to the ENTIRE truth about the plan- it isn’t just a tax increase, it is also a massive tax cut. This could speak to the early difficulty in explaining the plan and perhaps some recent effectiveness (particularly in the debate) in getting the message accross.

  57. I suspect Andrew is correct and the gap has narrowed somewhat.

    Harper will release his platform Tuesday. Probably a summation of known stuff but watch for a game changer or two, possibly involving Quebec. The Tory’s platform will be THE story (for good or ill) during the last week of the campaign.

    This week will not be like the last week. With the twin four-on-one debate pile-ons I surprised the Tories are only down a couple of points.

    Here is a raw data Wiki page with a graph some may find intresting:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2008

  58. Just prior to the last election Paul Martin declared that the Liberals would win the largest majority in Canadian history, according to the polls.

  59. Divided Majority

    Sunday October 5, 2008

    The smartest move Mr. Harper made this election was the Psychological Operation (PsyOp) he ran by saying “I think the Canadian public has become more conservative”. This I think caused the progressive majority to surrender this election and turn to the American presidential election hoping for better news.

    But this is not true. In 2006 federal election 76% of all NDP ballots went to waste, producing zero seats, 50 percent of the Liberal ballots and 100 percent of the Green ballots suffered the same fate.

    The combined vote share in the last federal election of all of the three parties was 53 percent of the total ballots, which produced only 43 percent of the total parliament seats. The latest Harris-Decima poll is giving the three parties 52 percent of the total public opinion polls while Nanos Research is giving them 57 percent. This translates – believe or not – to 121 seats which is only 39 percent of the total seats. The result Mr. Harper would love you to believe is due to Canadians growing more conservative. Or is it?

    The Centre to Centre-left was always fragmented and it won elections because the right and far-right suffered from the same problem, now that the Canadian Alliance party has completely acquired and devoured the PCs, the Canadian electoral map is left with a very fragmented progressive vote and very concentrated right and far-right vote. This could lead to a conservative majority government with only 36 percent of the popular vote.

    The three progressive party leaders except for Elizabeth May are waiting for a miracle to change the opinion polls, unfortunately this is not going to happen as the conservative did not increase their vote share (around 35 percent) it is the Centre that got more fragmented. The solution is very simple; progressives need to vote as a bloc in each and every riding. This will allow for a better share of MPs and will allow for the each party to keep its total vote share. Harper wants you to think that this election is already lost, it is not.

    Please visit http://www.strategicvoting.ca/ for a riding by riding vote suggestion.

  60. I just know that when Putin comes knocking at our Arctic door, and he will, we will need a leader with some male essentials.

    Who would that be? The guy who’s turned the CAF into a porkbarrel factory in the past three elections?

  61. David, I’m thinking bjl means May. :)

  62. Ryan D: “Dion mentioned the Green Shift every chance he got during the debate.”

    Yes, Dion did mention the Green Shift during the debate. And what Harper clearly said is that under the Conservative plan the emission targets will be lower (see the difference between the two plans) and so the economy will be less effected by those set targets. Kyoto targets are off the table for the Conservatives.

    Harper is very upfront about reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, namely that they will hurt us no matter which plan is to be implemented. He has said this consistently and he has also said so during the debates.

    What Dion says is that his plan, the Green Shift is neutral and thereby indicates to the public that his plan could be implemented without economic pain. Yes, the Green Shift may be neutral concerning taxes going in and out, but in the target setting the Liberal plan comes much higher than under the conservative plan.

    When the tax is given as a credit and this tax credit can offset the increase of cost due to energy being taxed, meaning that the average Canadian will come out neutral when it comes to heating costs etc, the fact remains that the costs for a host of other things will go up as well, and when the neutrality aspect has played itself out, we are still left with a stronger economic downturn within the manufacturing business due to the higher targets being set by the Green Shift.

    The Green Shift may be neutral in some respect, but overal the outcome of the plan will lead to higher cost for manufacturing within Canada, and that is what we cannot afford at this time.

    Perhaps we could afford these higher set targets if a new system of tariffs will be implied. The implementation of tariffs are also mentioned within the Green Shift plan, but have you heard Dion talk about that?

  63. “Perhaps we could afford these higher set targets if a new system of tariffs will be implied.”

    I meant tariffs will be implemented.

  64. Furthermore, if anyone on this blog can honestly tell me how the Green Party target setting of co2 emissions are to be realized, I would certainly like to hear about that.

    If the Green Party target setting is realistic, then by all means talk about their platform. But if their target setting is out of this world, why are we taking the party platform seriously?

  65. Alright, lets do some basic math.

    Nanos on Oct 1st had the Grits at 27%. On Oct 2nd they jumped to 30%. Since Nanos is a three day tracking poll this means that the average between Sep 28-30th was 27%. Assume that the average between Sep 29-30th was 27%. (not an unreasonable assumption)

    That means that on Oct 1st Nanos’ one day polling must have been 36%. (by basic math)

    Since Oct 1-3rd is once again 30% on a three day average then Oct 2-3 must have an average of 27%.

    So, essentially one day of unreasonably high polling for Dion has skewed the results for the past 3 Nanos polls. Tomorrow the Oct 1st result will be out of the average so I expect the Grit polling to plummet 3% points. If it does, then all this was, was one statistical anomaly.

    If it sticks higher, then the Tories have a problem.

    Andrew is skewing the average because yesterday and today (Sat and Sun) the only polls out were Decima and Nanos, and Nanos had an unreasonably high value for the Grits. Whereas on Friday and Thursday there was Decima, Nanos, Angus, Ipsos and Ekos.

    On Friday the Nanos aberration wasn’t enough to sway the average because it was mixed in with FOUR other polling companies that didn’t show the same trend. On Saturday and Sunday it was enough because there was only ONE other poll.

  66. southerontarian,

    You’re looking at the Liberal numbers. I’m looking at the Tory numbers. Nanos has been the outrider on the Liberals and the Greens — a function of voter indecision between the two, mixed with differences in polling technuiqe: Harris prompts for party names, while Nanos doesn’t, so Greens tend to underperform in Nanos polls.
    But he and Harris have actually tracked quite closely together when it comes to the Cons.

  67. I don’t know what all these polls mean AC? Anyway, if there is any trend to be made out of all this, it is that all bets are on for enjoying a couple of wobbly pops on Tuesday evening.

  68. “comment by Bart F. on Sunday, October 5, 2008 at 8:08 pm:

    I suspect Andrew is correct and the gap has narrowed somewhat.

    Harper will release his platform Tuesday. Probably a summation of known stuff but watch for a game changer or two, possibly involving Quebec. The Tory’s platform will be THE story (for good or ill) during the last week of the campaign.

    This week will not be like the last week. With the twin four-on-one debate pile-ons I surprised the Tories are only down a couple of points.”

    …Was the above comment by Bart the Fish?

  69. The CONS seem to be avoiding all Public Forums, they could always go on with Stevie Long Nose on a phone line direct to them so they would know what to say

  70. I am one of those that believe Harper has been saving whatever the platform is he has for the last week so that he can promise the Moon, Sun, Stars and Heaven and Earth to voters, especially Ontario and Quebec. He obviously figures this is a brilliant strategy and the we the voters are too dumb to see right through his game.

  71. “I don’t want to make too much of this”…

    After ten paragraphs and several charts.

    You know what that means.

    It means he doesn’t want to be held to it,

    when the CPC wins and wins big.

    We’ll see how the one true poll, election night pans out.

    CPC

    175.

  72. The leadership graph, shows Harper again spiking upward,

    as we head into the final week.

    This, we are told is supposed to be particularly worrisome,

    to Harper supporters?

  73. Why does the “on the ground” information suggest its not even close? (horrible turnout to events, for Libs, insiders saying things are crumbling, folks like Kinsella driving through suburban Ontario and seeing all folks turning CPC)?

    Why is Dion focusing on Liberal strongholds,

    and CPC and NDP also focusing on liberal strongholds?

    The reason is that the national polls are not coming close to gauging voter intensity – liklihood of actually voting.

    If they did, they would show what the other objective factors are showing, and what the internals are showing.

    The CPC vote is strong as steel, whereas the Lib vote has never been more apathetic.

    Put another way, when a conservative tells a pollster he’s favouring the CPC, that means he’ll actually be at a voting booth, putting an “x” by their candidate.

    When a “liberal” tells a pollster he’s in favour of the Libs, he’s far more ambivalent.

    This is why, Andrew hedges, with the “I don’t want to make a big deal about this”. He knows this.

    The other pollsters know this.

    They also know that the only poll that matters when folks see “who’s closest” is the one(s) just before the actual vote.

    Which is why this week you will all see it suddenly widen, and we’ll all get some explanation about it “breaking for the conservatives”.

    Nothing will have “broken” for the conservatives.

    It will have been there all along. They will have just taken the time to be more careful when it counted.

    CPC –

    175 seats.

  74. comment by Two Cents:

    No, I’ve used this tag for a few years. I deny being Warren Kinsella’s pet. :P

  75. I believe that the Conservatives were on a solid track for a majority routed through Quebec. However, the PM wrecked his chances by shooting his mouth off by attacking artists. I think that played into the image of him being not such a nice person and supporting an anti-intellectual “hidden” agenda. This always seems to happen to the Reform/Alliance/Conservative party. They initially do quite well in the early days of the election but then someone shoots their mouth off which scares off voters especially in Quebec and Ontario. Two elections ago, Randy White went crazy about the Charter which cost them the election and this year it is Harper himself with loose lips. This is why they will have difficulty finding a majority because they really have a hard time understanding the complexities of Canada. They seem to think that Canada is quite a simple place – like Alberta – but it really isn’t. For them to win a majority, they need to have more sensitivity for the opinions and needs of city dwellers and Quebecers.

  76. “It’s disturbing enough that both Harris-Decima and Nanos now have them at 34%”

    I agree, that is disturbing for at most 34% of Canadians. On the other hand, 2 in 3 Canadians are very much relieved to see that trend.

    What’s also interesting is how the Green vote is hanging on despite the Liberals and NDP going up.

  77. To be clear, I meant “disturbing to Conservatives.” I find it neither disturbing nor a relief myself.

  78. ” I find it neither disturbing nor a relief myself.”

    In other words: it could be disturbing to the country as a whole?

  79. Andrew,

    go to SDA,

    “Vitrivirous” is a part time commenter.

    He’s got the long terms trends of all the polls,

    along with his own very well thought out calculator. It’s at the top right now.

    One thing that struck me,

    was that, aside from his calculator (which shows near majority),

    is how the longer term trends of the other polls, don’t come close to establishing the CPC being in trouble.

    Also one other point.

    The longer term polls, not the dailies, seem to show a pattern.

    A long rise for the CPC, then a period of decline, followed by an even larger rise for the CPC. On a week over week basis.

    I’ll call it the “pause effect”.

    If this pattern continues?

  80. Kody, you are a found poet:

    The leadership graph, shows Harper again spiking upward,

    as we head into the final week.

    This, we are told is supposed to be particularly worrisome,

    to Harper supporters?

  81. Kody must be working the evening shift over there at the Conservative war Room. How many posts is this now in the past hour or so with the party talking points?

    The trend is not going Harper’s way right now Cody and no matter how much he tries to make up for his gaffe in Quebec with all kinds of promises, they won’t believe him anymore.

  82. Good… very good.

    The bloc will block Harper and his pro-Bush evil ideology in Quebec . The fact that Harper declared a war on culture by cutting 50 millions while spending 8 billions (read: military subsidy) for a useless war shows that guy has no judgment.

    We have to hope Obama will win also.

  83. kody: Bush focused on California in the last week of his 2000 election.

    Sometimes, politicians get a little deluded.

    As for the “longer polls” on SDA… you’re quoting a commentator from Small Dead Animals. That’s like quoting Free Republic, except that Freepers spell better. (Smell better, too.)

    Thanks, but no. Though that does go a long way towards explaining your own delusions, kody.

  84. Good… very good.

    The bloc will block Harper and his pro-Bush evil ideology in Quebec . The fact that Harper declared a war on culture by cutting 50 millions while spending 8 billions (read: military subsidy) for a useless war shows that guy has no judgment.

    We have to hope Obama will win also.

    Too bad you couldn’t post an evil-genius cackling sound to go with the post, quebec separatiste….

    I will say that the CPC have ended doing an interesting thing (beyond shooting themselves in the foot over the arts funding issue). Their attack of the Bloc has undoubtedly left a bad taste in the mouths of many quebecois against the CPC, but I don’t doubt that it has also led to a subconscious questioning of the raison d’etre for voting the Bloc by soft federalists.

    The performance of Dion, which was in complete contrast to how he has been presented by the CPC and the separatist media, has also effectively removed their credibility from this election, and in the case of the latter, rethink their position on Dion.

    Personally, I think the coupling of these two events underlie the reversal of fortunes of Dion and the LPC in Quebec.

    Guess well have to wait and see!

    Austin

  85. Andrew:

    So… you’re saying that the Tories are down in two tracking polls by 2% from their 2006 totals (as of today)… while the Grits are down (as of today) by 3% points. Sorry if I can’t work myself into a sweat over it.

    Meanwhile SC (today) continues to show that the Tories are leading by significant margins in swing ridings outside Quebec, and as of Friday Ipsos was showing them at 37% and Angus at 40% (post-debate). By the way, that’s why the drop is so ‘steep’ in the last two days on your graph. The average of the Ipsos, Angus, Decima and Nanos was ~37.5% but the average of only Decima and Nanos was ~36%.

    And this isn’t even the first time a poll has shown the Tories at 34%. In fact, Ekos has shown them that low repeatedly over the last two weeks! Perhaps Ekos was right all along? Who knows.

    I’m as bemused by the fact that the Tories haven’t released their platform as much as the next guy. But to pronounce doom and gloom over the fact that the government has lost a few percentage points of popularity in the process of an election campaign is .. well.. amusing since that is the trend in pretty much every campaign. (I think LISPOP did a pretty good comparison).

  86. This just proves that most Canadians were not paying attention until the debates. The polling numbers did not change with all of the Conservative gaffes in the first 2-3 weeks of the campaign. Now that people are starting to pay attention, the numbers are moving. Bottom line: Canadians are still scared of Harper. Not only is his majority out of the question, but Stephane Dion now has a chance at becoming the next PM.

  87. Just let me add something that Rod Love wrote after the last Alberta election. The polls showed our election to be a lot tighter than the final result, with Stelmach winning a surprisingly high majority. Love attributed it largely to the Tories far superior Get Out The Vote machine.

    The Libs GOTV has been good in previous elections. How good will it be this time, especially in comparison to the Tory and NDP,
    is the big remaining question. The Liberal rallies have been smaller in size, so that may be some kind of indicator of comparitive organizational strength.

    And when it comes to motivation and determination by the voters, I think the Tory voters come out far ahead. I agree with kody who says its as strong as steel. After all Harper’s hard work to get conservatives this far, we won’t let him down by failing in our one remaining task of showing up to mark an X. I have no idea what would motivate a Liberal voter.

  88. I expect the same thing that motivates conservative voters — the conservative ideology/policies.

  89. thwim,

    except we don’t have a leader that we really would rather go away, so someone better will lead the party to what we think is certain victory.

    think Outremont,

    Quadra,

    Sask,

    the Libs overpolled significantly in all the by elections.

    This one will be a doozy.

  90. Everyone seems to be forgetting that the advance polls have been running since Friday. This drop in support in the past few days may simply be the fact that a lot of Tory supporters have voted and have now dropped out of the pool of voters being polled for their voting intentions. Remember, in 2006 advance polls account for over 10% of all votes cast. I know from experience that the Tories have a very strong GOTV effort and they try to get as many supporters out to the advance polls in order to lessen their workload on election day – can the same be said of the Liberals this election?

  91. Francien- Without getting into the whole Green Shift debate with you ( Although I disagree with you I literally don’t have time right now) I just want to clarify what I was saying in response to some specific points you had tried to make earlier. Whether you like the Green Shift or not Dion didn’t run from it as you were suggesting earlier. That was my first point. Also, whether you like the Shift or not it is not nearly as simple as the massive tax grab the Tories were making it out to be. Thus, Dion may be gaining traction with people who are (rightly or wrongly) seeing it in a different light after the debate.

  92. “Andrew,
    go to SDA,
    “Vitrivirous” is a part time commenter.
    He’s got the long terms trends of all the polls,”

    Asking someone to go to “SDA” for analysis is like asking someone to go to hell [for cookies].

    If you want to see an unbiased conglomerate of polling trends, check out http://www.pollingreport.ca

    My biased opinion of the coming Conservative support trend looks like this –>

  93. Well – jump on the wagon at last Andrew-come-lately!
    Of course – you have made major inroads into Mr. Harper’s credibility at least with those of the Neocon persuasion that in fact he threw his smaller government fiscal conservatism philosophy overboard his wagon in a cynical trade for power..maybe it’s his former core support that he is bleeding?
    And his credibility will take a further hit with me (David Olive and maybe you too?) if his platform tomorrow makes no mention of the opening at the Free Trade Agreement negotiations with the European Community due to kick off in a ceremony on October 17th – three days after the election – then we will have to further wonder about his secrecy and scorn for the intelligence of the electorate…won’t we?

  94. Wascally Wabbit

    Peter Mandelson, the EU Trade commissioner, has left his position after he was appointed to cabinet by PM Brown. Not sure if that affects the trade negotiations though. I assume the bureaucrats will push ahead with the talks regardless.

  95. Historically the Liberals are brilliant, they own Canada. They fragmented it, French / English, so they could reinvent it in their vision, 1982 constitution, Charter, stacked Supreme Court. Intensified the fragmentation East / West (NEP) and then present themselves as the only solution to the political problems they created.

    It really is quite brilliant. People should just get used to the fact that the Liberals own Canada. No other party has controlled a modern western democracy as long as the Liberal party. They have been in power for a longer period of time overall in Canada then the Communists in Russia from Lenin to the end of the Soviet Union.

    The bottom line is that any idea that diverges from Liberal dogma is anti-Canadian, once a political party pulls the mind trick off on the majority of people they own the country. Once you realize that fundamental point, everything makes sense in Canada’s political landscape.

    Personally I wish the Conservatives OR the NDP would win a majority just because Canada needs new ideas for the future which are unique to Canada and not imported European ideas like the Green shift. But it isn’t going to happen.

    Conservative minority “MAYBE” but don’t discount the power of the tax payer funded CBC, like Prada in the USSR to swing even more votes back to the Liberals…

  96. centreman: Prada? In the USSR? Who knew that high-end Italian fashion labels had such a role in the affairs of the Soviet Politburo.

    (Which is to say: I think you’re missing a ‘v’.)

  97. Charles H: LOL (at myself) I can laugh at myself, good point : )

  98. It is a short election process but it seems to be bring out the leader and party characteristics. As a retiree living in Ottawa, I was aware of the extensive controls that the Harper government imposed on all government activities with every thing requiring PMO (Prime Minister Office) approval. The firing of Lynda Keene as the nuclear watch dog and the absence of the Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer leadership in the Listeriosis outbreak. It is all about control not leadership and it is stifling the government. Now, it is stifling the Conservatives campaign.

  99. “…don’t discount the power of the tax payer funded CBC, like Prada in the USSR to swing even more votes back to the Liberals”

    The most surprising thing about this campaign so far to me is the extent of the attacks by the
    anti-Harper groups. The Toronto Star editorials are becoming all pro-Liberal all the time, with barely a good thing to say about the NDP.
    Everything is now getting thrown into the fear mix–Bush, Iraq, de-regulation, jobs, the banks, etc etc.

    How much does fear of A motivate someone to vote B (instead of C or D or E …) ? The Libs forumla still has A = Harper, B = Liberal. The NDP forumla has switched to A = Dion, B = Layton (and fear replaced by, I would say, “who deserves your vote/who has earned it”).

    Looks like an air wars tag-team effort by the CPC and NDP for the rest of the campaign. Is there also a tag team effort behind the scenes on the ground in key ridings ? A scary thought for Liberal supporters.

  100. Okay, so we’re down to the last 10 days. At least 65% of Canadians do not want the Conservatives in power. It’s time to pick a side people. How many of you really want the NDP or the Green party to be the national government of Canada? May was smokin’ over the 2 nights. Every time Harper said something silly, she challenged him (that’s why she was talking so much!). Layton had some moments too but there are sides to the NDP’s economic and environmental plans that I am less comfortable with.

    In terms of the recent history of Canada, the Liberals have been the party which has kept Canada humming when some of the other countries in the G8 were suffering.

    Canadians have been very proud and almost smug when we compare ourselves to our USA friends. We have laughed at them for voting for Bush thinking that we would never fall into the same trap of supporting a government that is so militant, negative and wrong for the economy and the environment.

    How many of us have laughed at the USA through Rick Mercer’s Report, the Air Farce, This Hour has 22 Minutes not to mention the other comedy shows such as the Daily Show and the Colbert Report? We collectively said “Not us. We’d never be that gullible”. Yet here we are. How many of us watched the CBC documentaries on George Bush, Dick Cheney and the War in Iraq and said, “We’d never be in their shoes!”? Well, we’re pretty close to being the butt of our own joke.

    It’s time to step on the ice and put our votes where our laughter has been. If Canadians really think that the USA got it so wrong with a government that has been such a nightmare not only to its own citizens but to other countries in the world, how can we vote for the Conservatives who represent the same values as the USA Republicans?

    Let’s hope that all of us who really do not want a Conservative government will get behind the Liberals and do the centrist thing!

  101. I don’t think the Conservatives truly understood the free ride they were given by the media in the last two elections. Now that they’re in power they’re getting a taste of what the Liberals received and they’re clearly unprepared for it. I think they truly bought into the liberal.
    The nedia still playing by the Conservative they are not fare yet with Liberal but th etime will tell when will go to under deficit.
    it’s all in thebooks they Surplus they are showing just wait and watch

  102. Ryan D. “Also, whether you like the Shift or not it is not nearly as simple as the massive tax grab the Tories were making it out to be. ”

    You’re right: it isn’t. However, the target levels do differ between the Green Shift and the Conservative proposed plan. Follow the complete story.

    Centreman says: “Canada needs new ideas for the future which are unique to Canada and not imported European ideas like the Green shift.”

    Canada will never be able to fit into an European manifold. But pretending to do so will look good on the international stage. Let’s have a look at what the Europeans are up to now. Let’s have a look at their funny backtracking. Second thoughts come to mind. But Canada will once again perform, well,… as “Johnny come lately”.

    We have no Canadian voice. Such voice was long ago silenced by pretending that being ‘nice’ can do the job. My point: The Liberal Green Shift once again pretends that the Canadian economy will not be hurt.

    Harper claims the opposite, even admits that the milder Conservative plan will hurt Canadians. But his voice isn’t ‘nice’ enough. His voice had been overed by anti-Preston, anti-American, anti-rational slurring long before he had a chance to speak.

    Liberals unite! We’ve almost completed our task of taking the liberal out of Liberal.

    Heil Harper (may Bush be with him)

  103. Andrew,

    Is there no shame on this Board?

    A post above by a “progressive” blogger uses the phrase Quote “Heil Harper (may Bush be with him)”unquote.

    The use of words like this is disgusting. Can we not agree to put a stop to this trash?

  104. Yes. The ungrounded Hitler comparisons don’t help the case of progressives.

  105. The Big Question

    If Harper can’t win a majority against a very weak leader and poor campaigner like Dion, will he ever??

    The Bigger Question

    Who will be the next Dalton Camp to dislodge him is he doesn’t?

  106. Come on Andrew and Two Cents,give me a break. For a week now I’ve been trying so hard to break on through to the other side and this morning my mind could finally do it.

    It ain’t easy shedding one’s belief that honest debate could win the day. I want to be as progressive as the best of them.

    Yahoo Harper (May Bush be pleased with him). Down with debate!

    “Hayya ‘alal-falah”

  107. Francien Verhoeven
    “Yahoo Harper (May Bush be pleased with him). Down with debate!

    “Hayya ‘alal-falah””

    Dude, stop this. You’re as bad as the ConBots like Kody and Bob Whatshisface. I actually don’t even know what your point is.

  108. Pete: I’ve never been able to figure out if FV seriously believed the stuff they’re posting, or it’s all meant as a troll.

    I use the word incoherent too much, but at least I can see what kody’s getting at even if there’s no logic to it.

  109. Pete,

    ” I actually don’t even know what your point is.”

    What do you mean? I have been very clear on this. For most of the past week I have been trying to break through to the other side and this morning I could finally feel like being part of this wave overcoming us.

    What do you think Duceppe wants me to do? Harper is a liar, Harper is a cheater. That’s what he says. But I could swear that not that long ago he kept mentioning Bush’s name when talking about Harper. Oh, wait, that might have been Layton. Sorry, sometimes I get them all mixed up. I apologize.

  110. I always expected the polls to tighten up in this election. I guess I just didn’t expect it to happen this late in the game. But the debate (which was held late in the campaign) was a big part of that. My expectation (before this campaign, and still today) is that the CPC will again pull away after that tightening, but it will be touch-and-go whether they get a majority or not.

    The last couple of elections the Libs got a bounce in the last 2 days, or even at the polling booth. I don’t know if that was a switch because of Liberal party brand strength, or whether it was a stick-with-the-incumbent gain. If it’s the latter, then Harper can expect another 1-2% swing from it.

    I was fretting bigtime while the polls weren’t moving. I was in for $500 for All Other Outcomes (i.e. a minority gov’t result) on the UBC Election Stock Market, at 62 cents. It went down as far as 54 cents, and I thought for awhile there that I was screwed. But the last two days AOO’s has rocketed up, going over 80 cents yesterday. I’m out now, with a nice ‘n’ tidy profit. Though Conservative majority at 20 cents looks like it’s worth a $20 bet, to make $100.

    It would be nice to know how much each campaign has spent, relative to the spending limit, at this juncture. Apparently the CPC will be bombing the airwaves this week; just don’t know if I believe that bit of news. I guess we’ll see.

  111. Geez, just saw that Bush-Harper ad along the top … that surely is the kitchen sink from the Liberals, eh?! Frig, they’re gonna miss him.

  112. Go ahead and vote liberal. You will find out what high food and fuel prices are. Carbon green plan will only drive us into money problems. We will follow the US. economy real quick spending all that money on food and fuel. I farm and will tell you that there will not be a farmer left under the liberal goverment. Harper is the only choice in Canada right now. We must give him a majority.

  113. The reasons for Harper’s slide is perhaps less obvious to voters too young to have watched Nixon. They would not hear the echoe of Nixon’s repeated “Let me be clear..” in Harper’s frequent use of the same phrase. They would also not make the nick name association between Nixon and Harper, with opponents calling one “tricky Dick” the other “deceiven Stephen”.
    They may however have seen Nixon’s amazing smile which became completely disassociated from his true emotions, emblamatic with two fingered victory salut as he smilingly left the white house permanently and in disgrace. What has this to do with Harper? In the leaders debate, more than any other moment, the camera caught the disconnect between Harper’s near smirk smile, which appearred no matter what an opponent said. This smile was at many times a lie, especially when the opposition leaders, Elizabeth May most penetratingly, reminded voters who Harper was not too many years ago, a Reform leader who characterized universal medicare as eveidence that Canada was a failed socialist state. The smile, or in that context, near smirk, did not change. Harper comes across as inauthentic. People are not buying the sales pitch that the road to power has made him moderate. And it is the revealing inauthenticity of the smirk/smile that triggers the emotional response that his are calculated remarks, not spoken from the heart. Contrast that with Dion’s authenticity, which shines through despite his language problem, and you have the explanation of why Harpers polls are falling while Dion’s are rising.

  114. I think in the end we will be left with another Conservative minority especially with Liberal voters, like myself and others I am close to, are disgusted with Dion himself. I don’t trust a man who couldn’t cut it in Environment Canada to be Prime Minister. I stood behind Paul Martin, and I will continue to defend him as a Prime Minister I believed in, but I won’t simply follow party lines and vote for a man who has split the Liberals.

    http://clancop.wordpress.com

  115. Ekos is now showing a Tory drop and so is SC’s swing riding polling.

    Now, I’ll say that I’m worried Harper is losing control of this thing. We’ll find out for sure in one week.

  116. Look at these polls coming in.
    Today Harris-Decima has the Conservatives at 31, others have them at 32 and 33. The LOWEST the Conservatives polled in the last two weeks of the 2006 election was 35%, with some as high as 42%.

    This is looking pretty good (if you are not a Harper supporter). Hope the trend sticks.

  117. Wouldn’t it be deliciously ironic if Harper ended up losing an election that he forced on his opponents?

  118. It’s full-on desperation time. Watch out for some pretty crazy antics coming from Harper and the Little Shop.

  119. It’s full-on desperation time. Watch out for some pretty crazy antics coming from Harper and the Little Shop.

    And, sure, enough, in the next post…

  120. I think Harper misjudged the electorate’s appetite for a majority Government.

    Harper does not understand that Quebeckers use a different song sheet at election time than the one one they sing from between elections. Between elections Quebeckers want money, jobs, and pork to flow to Quebec. During an election they want politicians to reflect their core values: nationalism, culture, language, and their much more democratic socialist preferences in governments. Lose track of any of those during an election, as the Conservatives did, even after hand feeding feeding the money, jobs, pork, and core value recognition before the election. And the Quebec voter melts away.

    In Ontario, Harper failed to see that voters never really wanted an election as much as they wanted to see the squabbling in Ottawa stop: between Liberals, between Parties in Parliament, and between Party leaders. So they gave the appearance of wanting an election to decide things for a while – until they heard the same old squabbling during the campaign. Now they can’t seem to decide who is best for Ontario. And, after all, that’s what counts for Ontario.

    Harper can’t be faulted for what’s going on in Atlantic Canada. Newfoundland has opted out, his Lieutenants in NS and NB have been floundering (excuse the pun) over fish, fishing, and pogey since they were still PC’s. And however hard the voter pretends to like the Conservatives between elections, the Liberals always remind them during an election that the Conservatives are the reason they all have to move west to be Canadians.

    Harper has it mostly right in the West, but then he forgets how much the East hates him for the West loving him. And the West has too few seats to give him the majority he set out to get.

    All this from me – a lifelong conservative. What a country we live in. And for poor Harper it’s not, “Mon pays, ce n’est pas un pays, c’est l’hiver.’, it’s ‘Mon pays, ce n’est pas un pays, c’est l’enfer.’

  121. I am proud to be a conservative and pray for a majority ; its the other party leaders that terrify me and as a taxpayer, I do not want money thrown at problems, schemes such as the liberal ‘green shift tax’, increasing liberal taxation, and erractic last minute economic plans. Give me a conservative ‘Harper’. Yea!!

Sign in to comment.