The Williams bump


Getting back to this debate, I decided to run the numbers for the entire shortlist using rg’s metric: by popular vote, compare the last election result before the leader took over to the election in which that leader peaked. So, for instance, for Jack Layton I compared the NDP’s 2011 result to the NDP’s result in 2000.

Using that measure, our seven leaders (including Mr. Layton) post the following gains by percentage point.

Danny Williams 29.0
Gordon Campbell 24.4
Jack Layton 22.1
Dalton McGuinty 15.3
Gary Doer 8.0
Stephen Harper 1.9*
Jean Charest 1.5

Add those numbers to our previous stats as you see fit.

*That compares 2011 to the combined result of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives in 2000.


The Williams bump

  1. Very kind of you for giving Harper credit for leading the PC’s in 2000.

    However, shouldn’t you use the numbers from the Conservatives first election as a single party?

    Just saying, you know, something about apples and oranges.

  2. Meaningless and useless space filling words.

  3. These numbers are a little disingenuous. For example, Jean Charest’s Liberals have gotten comfortably above 40% in every election that he fought as leader, with the one exception in 2007 (minority gov’t). In fact, even in 1998 when he lost against Bouchard, the Liberals got more votes than the PQ (43.6 % vs 42.9 %).

    However, looking at this post, we’re led to believe that he hasn’t done much for the party’s fortunes.

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