Today’s hit of Nanos: 36-31-20-7-7


From the Nanosphere. Whatever could it mean?

Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives leading in national support at 36%. Just 5 points behind are the Liberals at 31%, followed by the NDP at 20% and the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party tied at 7%. In Central Canada, the deadlock between the Conservatives and the Liberals in Ontario and the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc in Quebec continues.

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Today’s hit of Nanos: 36-31-20-7-7

  1. It means you totally beat me in the Nanos Sunday Sprint, that’s what it means. Oh, and that this thread is about to explode into a dozen different conspiracy theories, each more overly complicated than the last — but you already knew that.

  2. You went out to hard and too fast, Kady, your fingers are tired.

  3. Just wait til tomorrow’s hit of sweet, sweet EKOS, baby.

  4. Too hard. Not to hard. My fingers are broke.

  5. Nanosphere – hey, you’re sounding like Kady :-)

    No conspiracy theory here, people. The parties were tied before the election started. They still are. The NDP will not get 20% on election day. Jack “Pothead” Layton will not be PM.

  6. I haven’t heard many people discuss the possible forms any minority government will take. If these numbers are correct (which they probably aren’t…but for arguments sake…) the Tories will probably win the most seats (although not by a huge margin). If that happens would the Libs and NDP consider cooperating (I think a coalition might be asking too much)? I know they aren’t best buddies but they share a common enemy and such a move would make sense. If the Tories form another minority they would likely proced in the same agressive manner. The opposition would have to take them down thus forcing an unpopular election they could lose or do what they did last time- continually retreat and look weak and stupid. If they were to work together they could establish some good profile (ie. show how they can lead instead of letting the Tories talk about what their leadership would be like) and a Lib government helped along by the NDP would more accurately reflect the wishes of the majority of Canadians. I don’t think I have heard anyone mention this possibility. Any thoughts anyone?

  7. Nice to see the Bloc sliding into the abyss.

  8. They are weak and stupid, looks are not everything.

  9. Liberal pollster Nic Nanos doesn’t have a clue what is going on in Quebec. To find out what is going on over there, please consult Leger or CROP. On the basis of his Quebec numbers alone, this poll isn’t worth the bandwidth it appears on.

  10. I think this could be the start of a huge Green surge. The numbers aren’t there yet, but my intuition tells me that Liberals at 31% means that much of the Lower Mainland, the Saguenay, and parts of Newfoundland will reject the Bloc and see the Greens as the compromise party of choice. Also the urban Prairie ridings, if the NDP trend continues. Tomorrow’s Ekos will bear me out, I think. It’s a bit complicated but this is the first benchmark that proves my theory.

  11. These numbers are completely out of whack with what the other pollsters are indicating. Why, just yesterday they were saying 39-28, so we’ve had an unprecedented -3/+3 overnight? A 6 point change?

    I put the results at:

    CPC 38
    LIB 27
    NDP 18
    GRN 9
    BQ 7

    Error 3.8

  12. Gee.. the most accurate pollster in Canada last federal election and in Ontario 2007 provincvial election (both for the results and the MMP referendum) finds a tightening race, and the Conservative commentators go into a bit of denial? What a shocker.

  13. I thought all the polls were two days behind anyway? This would make sense if that’s true, given what blew up for the Conservatives late last week.

    As to the Liberals teaming up with NDP in a minority situation…..after what Layton has done to the Liberals, and his own ego that’s out front and proud these days, I would rather the Liberals ignore the NDP forever from now on. I would like to see the Liberals team up with the Greens. Elizabeth May has more integrity in her little finger than Layton could imagine possessing himself. Due to his actions the past few years, he’s no better than Harper.

  14. There is no way the Fibs has more than 30pc. I think their numbers are way too high. Considering Martin got said amount of votes in the last election to say that D’Yawn is an equal of Martin is a complete joke.

  15. Beary, havent the Fiberals already teamed up with the Greens? May is the Fiberal candidate in Central Nova! The Greens wont win a seat in this election, even a Griberal in Central Nova.

  16. Scott, my results aren’t based on partisan hope that the Liberals will be utterly crushed in this election [which they will], but rather by accumulating aggregate polling numbers into a consensus. So either everyone is wrong and Nanos is right, or this an aberration. We’ll soon see tomorrow.

  17. Beary- I understand where you are coming from but the Greens won’t have enough seats to put the Liberals over the top. The NDP might have enough seats depending how things shake out. Even though Layton is…well….Layton I think the situation might be such that letting the Tories govern would be too dangerous for both sides thus forcing them to overcome their egos (although I am probably underestimating their egos…).
    Jarrid- I’m not sure what grounds there are to claim that a particular pollster is more or les tuned in to Quebec. Do the basic principles of mathematics (which is what the polls are based on) change when we cross provincial borders? I know the polls are crap (I’ve said so a million times) but how can you argue they are accurate in one place and not in another?

  18. Let’s not forget Harris-Decima released today:

    CPC 39
    LIB 23
    NDP 17
    GRN 11
    BQ 8

    I’m more inclined to believe the Liberals have lost soft support to the Greens, actually, since the numbers fluctuate from the normal Liberal level of 25/26 and the Greens at 9/10. The Tories may have gained a point somewhere. But even with error margin this is clearly a commanding, Liberal annihilating lead.

    Sorry, Scott.

  19. Raphael- you may be right but I’d be more inclined to say that come Oct. 14th when we have the only poll that means anything at all, the results will be very different. Whether you like Harper or not there is one simple fact in this election- for good or for bad everyone who doesn’t support Harper absolutely dispises him. Many people who count themselves as Green or NDP will vote Liberal on Oct 14th because even if they have no love or even respect for Dion they can’t bear the thought of another Tory government. Even the most ardent Harper supporter must realize how distasteful he is to pretty much everyone else. That is why he is putting out the sweater vest commercials and that is why he wont whoop the Libs as badly as everyone seems to think he will.

  20. RyanD

    From an Ian MacDonald article in Nat Post a couple of weeks ago:

    In Quebec, the only authoritative polls are local, notably CROP and Leger Marketing. And CROP, in La Presse last week, told a much different story, with the Conservatives at 31%, the Bloc at 30% and the Liberals trailing at 20%.

    It doesn’t matter how accurate the pollsters are in the Rest of Canada (ROC). When it comes to Quebec, they should be taken with a very big buyer-beware notice.

    It begins with the sample size. CROP, for example, polls 1,000 respondents in Quebec. Strategic Counsel polls 1,000 for the entire country, including just under 250 for Quebec.

    But it isn’t just the size of the sample, it’s where the sample comes from.

    Pollsters from ROC are susceptible to over-sampling the island of Montreal, a bastion of Liberal support. CROP, on the other hand, provides regional breakouts for the Rest of Quebec, a crucial battleground of 50 ridings, including the 418 area that includes Quebec City and the eastern part of the province.

  21. Everyone knows Crop and Leger (high sample polls of Quebec alone) are nearly sacrosanct on their polling for the area.

    Nanos being that far off Quebec’s numbers show the poll should be disqualified for consideration.

    I’m surprised Nanos would release it, knowing how unreliable it is on its face.

    I guess that’s the problem with a daily tracking poll: the show must go on, no matter how horrible the show will be.

  22. Oh, worry not, my little Nanosceptics. There will be a brand new set of numbers out tomorrow, and if this is, indeed, an anomaly, you can go back to praising his insight to the skies — or at least not slagging him mercilessly. That’s why it’s great that we have – what, four different rolling dailies? Ekos, Nanos, Angus Reid and Strategic Counsel? Something for everyone!

  23. BTW,

    notice how the other regional polls of late (Atlantic, BC and MB) have massive CPC gains, not just Leger and Crop.

    Each have high samples for their respective areas.

    Nanos, isn’t likely just oversampling the city of Montreal in Que, but also Toronto, in Ontario, and Vancouver in BC.

    As if stated before such national polls are particularly susceptible to this on weekends. Thus the dramatic dip on Sunday (which captures Friday night and Saturday).

    By the end of next week (as with last week as I predicted), once the weekend polling has filtered out, Nanos will be in line with the rest, showing a commanding CPC lead.

    The regional polls show the real story: complete Liberal decimation.

  24. JWL- Thanks for the info. I didn’t realize they had such different methods. I would add, however, that ALL the polls need to be taken with a “big buyer beware notice” as they are all quite problematic.

  25. Kody, the Tories have polled poorly for 3 Sundays in a row by aggregated polling. Odd. Perhaps the respondents are in church?


  26. The Leger poll that came out Sept. 18th (and all but passed over by the english media) had the following numbers:

    Conservatives 34
    Bloc 32
    Liberals 20

    Also as Raphael Alexander notes above, Decima-Harris has a 3 point drop for the Liberals tp 23%. Time was when Liberals would be screaming at the top of their lungs that numbers like that indicated an outlier poll. But with most polls saying the same thing, they now accept them and go just go fishing or otherwise change the channel.

  27. Raph,

    I commented on this previously, its a pretty well known phenomenon (US tracking polls show the same thing),

    and your not too far off the mark. Families and rural folk tend to be more conservative. Rural folk spend a lot of time in the city on weekends (getting supplies, going out ect). Families have many other activities (parents with kids have no real weekends) hence the cpc undercounting.

    The over counting city folk is an inherent problem with small sample country wide polls. To get the right number of “hits” they gotta focus more on the city, and thus get more Libs.

  28. Jarid, “Liberal pollster Nanos”??? Nanos was the only pollster to correctly call the popular vote TWO ELECTIONS IN A ROW. Calling him a Liberal is reaching.

  29. yes, kody, you did post that. Unfortunately someone else posted a study suggesting that the phenomenon is nonsense.

    (I also seem to remember many “rural folk” being somewhat offended that you treated them like yokels by claiming that they were “goin’ inta town fer supplies!” Guess that hasn’t changed, either.)

    On the Nanos poll: I’d buy that it’s an outlier, except that he’s been awfully accurate before. Whereas groups like Strategic Council and Decima ended up badly misreading a few elections. Even if his Quebec numbers are off, the rest likely aren’t.

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