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We are going to throttle you with polls before you can squeak out an objection


 

What’s it been, three hours since the last poll? Time for three more polls. Well, two and the promise of more to come. In our comment boards, Mike Duffy promises “a doozie of a poll” for his CTV Newsnet show tonight. And if you can’t wait, we have a new shipment of polls from companies with vaguely Greek-sounding names. Drum roll, please:

  • Nanos. Widening just a tad, 38%-31%-14%-9%.
  • Ekos. Tightening substantially, 36%-26%-19%-11%, with the Conservative lead cut in half over the course of the week.

And back to me, Inklos. I don’t know what to make of any of this. But I know you’d miss these numbers if we didn’t get them to you. Enjoy!


 

We are going to throttle you with polls before you can squeak out an objection

  1. I have to ask whether the Liberal campaign team forgot to replace Dion’s batteries a few days ago. Dude has been invisible.

  2. Andrew E–I’ve been wondering the same thing. Layton must be gleeful that he seems to be getting second billing after Harper.

    Polls–some polls include undecided, and some extract them out which makes a difference in the % figures. What i mean is you have to check if the 31% is 31% of all voters, or just decided voters? Depending on how many undecided/won’t say there is in a poll, that can seriously affect the sample size.

  3. The ekos link goes to Nanos by the way.

  4. Dion better watch it . If nonecan sway some of the undecided votes he’ll (she’ll ?) overtake Dion shortly on leadership .

  5. Sunny12: fixed. You think it’s easy to make links? Or new jokes?

  6. I’ll be checking out Dion personally in a few hours as he is here in Victoria speaking this afternoon so will get a feel for how he does live and in person who knows maybe I will heckle a bit it has been known to happen :)

  7. You’d think the media could get together and do one accurate poll, instead of this plethora of contradictory ones…

  8. Saw him at his Calgary Townhall . When he sticks to the script , he’s somewhat intelligible , not pretty when he’s winging it .

  9. Didn’t I read an article in the tree killing version of Macleans this week about the problems with relying on polls too much?

    ;-)

  10. I think the variance due to the Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology from Ekos.

  11. Give him hell, Wayne. I’ll be looking for the guy muttering something about his boy Harper while being lead away in handcuffs on the news :)

  12. Be careful Wayne – I know ONE of the parties has been using the RCMP to ensure that their message is controlled.

  13. Bailey, today’s blog is the performance-art version of our print article.

  14. Hey JWL : I use = That’s my boy Stevie! – if you hear that then it’s me! Right now I am painting a puffin on my t-shirt!

  15. My girlfriend, totally fed up with telemarketting calls got a call from one of the pollsters…she told them exactly the opposite of what she really felt. Don’t know what good that did, but she felt better.

  16. Before I went land-line-less (how is that phenomenon influencing polling results?) I got polled about four times in three years.

    I lied. A lot. Every time.

  17. ^ 19 times out of 20 ?

  18. David, odds are my lying offsets yours.

    Unless only a certain type of supporters are liars.

    All: Discuss.

  19. I just don’t answer or hang up, but if I bothered to answer, I’d lie.

    I know pollsters have ways of factoring out big fat liars, but does anyone have some info on just what they do exactly?

    I figure it’s probably not as big a factor as you might think, since while there are PLENTY of people who’d lie to a pollster (thinking of my own friends and family, I’m hard pressed to think of a single individual I think WOULDN’T lie to a pollster) I’d imagine most people who’d lie to a pollster won’t actually talk to a pollster.

    I do find it somewhat naive of pollsters to assume, in 2008, that people they call at home and interrupt in the course of living their lives are going to be honest with them. Then again, I suppose to acknowledge that problem would be to question their entire life’s work.

    So there’s that.

  20. I just don’t think we need more polls. There are already too many polls and the parties’ platforms and the issues are getting drowned out by polls. Of course, I don’t think of CTV and Duffy being that great on presenting the issues anyway, so, sure, let them waste their time discussing poll after poll. But, I do hope there are still some serious journalists and reporters left in Canada who will help Canadians become familiar with the different platforms and the issues so we can make an informed decision.

    Or is that no longer a possibility in Canada?

  21. By any chance have you had a look at this week’s Maclean’s, Catherine?

  22. What is this Maclean’s, of which you speak, and what does this Maclean person (he?she?) do on a weekly basis?

  23. Duffy’s like Fox news using Wolf Blitzers Situation Room. Wolf has updated polls every hour it seems.

    Other than wink, wink, nudge, nudge, Duffy doesn’t have much else to do but discuss Conservatives, how they’re doing in the polls and find some secret source with info against the Libs, especially and May.

    Paul, I saw you on Don Newman tonight…and one of the pundits/journalists was saying where are the Liberals on the rise in gas prices…they’ve been absolutely quiet – he was wrong. Dan McTeague has been all over the media today talking about it. Just saying.

  24. Duffy! Gawd. To quote his close personal friend Brian Mulroney – “There’s no w…. like an old w….”.

  25. Polls have very little value these days. As Paul pointed out there is a very good article on this in the magazine this week. In addition to what the article says features such as call display on peoples’ phones allow them to see that a pollster is calling and choose to answer or leave it. In effect that means that the polls are largely based on self selecting samples, thus they are invalid.
    On a different note I will now demonstrate my amazing psychic abilities. Ready??? Wayne went to see Dion and was thoroughly unimpressed (if not outright disgusted). He thinks the man is clearly “not a leader.” He looked weak and every word he uttered was either foolish or a lie in Wayne’s opinion. He is quivering with glee as all of this bodes very well for the Conservatives because every event (positive, negative or neutral) is somehow a sign of great things to come for Stevie. Of course Dion could have cured the lame and walked on water and this would still be the case. Psychic???? Maybe….or maybe some things are just so very predictable….

  26. I don’t know why the media don’t publicize this website more:
    http://pollob.politics.ox.ac.uk/

    It includes all the poll results, averages them, averages all the margins of errors AND tries to account for each polling house’s historic bias for or against one party.

    It’s fairly systematic and the average of all the polls has to be better than reporting 15 single polls.

    The site hasn’t gone to daily updates yet, but apparently it will.

    Perhaps that is why the media haven’t gotten on to it. Anything longer than the 24-hour (or is it 6-hour) news cycle and they’ve forgotten it.

    Goldfish.

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