Alice Funke follows the money.
Secondly, and on the other hand, it was not in fact the weekly fundraising totals that predicted the 2003 outcome, but the cumulative ones. If that’s the better indicator, why might that be? Well, for one thing, because late money is hard to spend well. It’s too late to hire full-time organizers and put them to much effective use signing up members or lining up local endorsements, too late to invest in national mailings, or predictive dialling phone banks, or well-designed database systems, or to organize a full-on get-out-the-vote campaign. It will buy some robocalls and telephone town halls (the first advertise the second, no matter what any candidate says about running a “robocall-free campaign”), and it might cover a quick IVR survey, a bit more travel, and a better floor show at convention.
And Greg Fingas tries to pinpoint what New Democrats should be thinking about.
But that leads to what may be the key question in evaluating the candidates: who, if elected, would best recognize and apply the collective strengths of the leadership candidates, caucus and party at large? And my suspicion is that the answer to that question – viewing the candidates in terms of organizational leadership, rather than either personal profile alone or compromises among camps – should be our guiding principle in deciding which candidate to support.