What just happened? (II) - Macleans.ca

What just happened? (II)


Adam Radwanski considers.

In this spring’s federal campaign, what once seemed quixotic came to pass faster than either Mr. Harper or Mr. Layton could have imagined. After Monday’s election, Canada has something approaching a two-party system. Now we’ll all take a deep breath and see if the new reality can survive a four-year break from elections.


What just happened? (II)

  1. What just happened is that the average Canadian voter is way ahead of the central Canadian media establishment.

    More of that to come…….


    Good to see that the average voter is more in tune than are the members of the central media establishment.

    • Right, the average voter saw it coming. The average voter saw nothing, at least until the debates were over in Quebec and EC.
      Why do you persist in this bizarre vendetta against the media? There is no average anything. There's just people. It 's all in your head.

      • I'm not saying that the average voter saw this particular outcome ahead of time. But what I am saying is that the media in central Canada was out of tune, seriously. And on these boards I have said more than once, that the more they hurled unfounded drivel against Harper and the CPC, the more they would win, and they did!!

        The central media has never been Harper friendly (and has never been Manning friendly) but both men, Harper and Manning are more in tune with Canada's future as are any pundits residing in central Canada. The old Canada is gone.

        I know you don't like reading my opinions and I know you haven't enjoyed reading them in the past, but what I have posted now and in the past holds a lot of truth within. It's just that some are reluctant to accept this changing Canada. And that is your choice. Each to their own. But that doesn't mean that I spout none sense. Far from it. I am convinced that Canada's political future will "bear" me out.

        • You claim to know an awful lot of things…most of it without a shred of evidence other then your unbounded fath in your ability to know because you know. You're like a circular argument on a continuous feedback loop.

  2. I wouldn't say that Canada now has a two party system, but that it suddenly looks a lot more like the UK – two large parties fighting over most votes, with a strong third party, a regional separatist party with a few seats, and a lone Green MP. Also note that the small third party is the centrist party in both cases.

  3. After Monday's election, Canada has something approaching a two-party system.

    I respectfully disagree. In fact, and as I've said in other threads, I think we have something approaching the 1990's, which is an opposition divided into one ideologically ambitious party and another traditionally elitist one. Until this situation resolves itself in some way, Harper will almost certainly benefit from the quality, or lack thereof, of his opponents.

    • I guess it's another way of saying this: The Liberal party will simply not go away, no matter how battered it is, just as the PC party did not want to go away.

      • what if we say "please"? offer plane tickets?


      • "The Liberal party will simply not go away, no matter how battered it is, just as the PC party did not want to go away."

        Using PC party as example of how parties just don't go away is not a very good one because PC no longer exists. I agree that it is hard to imagine Lib party disappearing but there are loads of examples of powerful political parties coming to a swift end.

        To me, partly what happened yesterday was many progressives got power of conviction and voted for NDP, the party that most closely reflects their beliefs, instead of voting for Libs and against Cons. And if the progressives who voted NDP this time don't go back, Libs are in big trouble going forward.

  4. Or maybe Canadians are a little nervous, did not want an election and spanked the party that caused it? Couldn't be that simple, could it?

    • There will never be one single reason. Millions of people produce unpredictable outcomes.

  5. The Perfect Storm

  6. The Telegraph UK did a nice editorial with a few good digs with the usual Brit wit.

    "During the long ascendancy of the Liberal Party, the frozen Dominion came over all touchy-feely. It started pushing up its taxes and regulations to EU levels. The state that invented multi-culturalism in the 1970s took it to ridiculous lengths, appeasing anti-Western mullahs while persecuting Mark Steyn"

    "The separatists now have just four seats in the Commons, prompting John Ivison's delicious observation that “no-one should be lamenting the demise of a party that has as many different words for grievance as the Inuit do for snow”.

    "A fair number of Liberal and Bloc voters went to a loony Left party called the NDP, whose support surged following a last-minute revelation that its leader, Jack Layton, had been caught in a state of undress during a police raid on a “massage parlour”.

  7. It's called the Tory Telegraph for a reason.

    • Daniel Hannan is a writer, journalist and Conservative MEP – so you you know his slant. But you have to admit it was a fun read, lol!!!

  8. I liked your election prediction yesterday: "Nothing will change". LOL

    • Actually, I said I didn't know what was going to happen….so I'd just go with the old 'right back where we started'

      Which we are….Con govt. In spite of all the hoopla

      And what that has to do with this topic, I don't know.

      • Not even close. The Bloc is no longer an offical party, the LPC is a charred husk of its former self, the NDP has captured virtually all Bloc support, and the CPC gained 24 seats to form a majority government (a feat that has allude the CPC for over 20 years).

        • LOL I meant in general….Cons are still govt, we still have an opposition….it's just changed around.

  9. Some of what has transpired was predicted and not all that surprising:

    — The Conservative's pre-writ media campaign, fundraising and organization were set to deliver.
    — An NDP rise would hurt the Liberals and lead to a Tory majority.
    — Vote splitting in parts of Ontario would boost the Tories even more.
    — The Tories were slated to make inroads in the GTA (boy did they).
    — The lower the voter turnout, the better for the Tories, given their strong organization.
    — Iggy's Parliamentary gambit would make or break the party for years to come.

    But some of what transpired was just wild:

    — Quebec voters killed the Bloc, dead.
    — Quebec voters took over the Federal NDP, now a majority Francophone Quebec party.
    — Two federal leaders are gone immediately, having lost even their own seats.
    — Nearly 60 incumbents, including a senior Tory and the Foreign Affairs Minister, went down to defeat.
    — Toronto voters abandoned the Liberals for BOTH the Tories and the NDP.
    — Saddest, despite heavy advanced polling, voter turnout remained near historic low levels.

    So, it's really, really bad for the Bloc.
    It's really bad for the Liberals.
    Today's NDP may not be the same as Jack Layton's NDP.
    The Greens won a seat, but lost nearly 400,000 votes (how weird is that?).
    Voters moved to the Right.
    Voters moved to the Left.
    Voters rejected long-time incumbents.
    Anyone in the middle got run over.
    Voters granted Harper a majority and free run for 4 years — with no back-up plan.
    No one knows what effect all of this will have on upcoming Provincial races.

    We live in interesting times.

  10. What happened is that Western Oil money, managed by American professional strategists finally wrestled power away from the Eastern Establishment. And they did it with Ontario's buy-in. Simple formula: smears, fear and "read my lips: no new taxes".
    Copied from George Bush Sr.'s campaign against Michael Dukakis.
    Say good-bye to Canada.

  11. Britain is bankrupt thanks to their laissez-faire policy with their banks. They know nothing about Canada or even their own miserable economy which is finished.

  12. Actually FVerhoeven, I think there is a measure of merit in your assessment. I usually chuckle at the political "experts" that love to expound on network television and the mainstream print media. Line up a dozen of them and you will end up with thirteen different "expert" opinions. They are generally more attuned to their own pontificating than to real Canadian moods and concerns.
    However, more than the media, it is the Liberal party itself that was most out of touch. The party that feels it has a "divine right to govern" has been choosing leaders who Canadians could not warm to. It is not so much that we love Harper, but that we like the Liberal Party's choice for leaders even less. The incredible fortunes the NDP found last night should be a message not only to the Liberals, but to the Conservatives as well. The Canadian landscape is changing. Canadians want to be more engaged in the workings of the nation.
    We were hearing this around the water cooler and at the tables at Timmy's. The media didn't hear it because the experts only hear the sound of their own voices.

  13. If we move to a two party system it will be a great failure for the country as a whole.