Second ballot results are now expected around 2pm. Here is what I’ll be looking for.
How high is Thomas Mulcair’s support? If most or all of Martin Singh’s support moves to Mr. Mulcair, that would give the first-ballot leader around 35%. However much Mr. Mulcair manages above that would seem to indicate how much support he drew from supporters of Niki Ashton and Paul Dewar.
Did Brian Topp narrow the gap between himself and Mr. Mulcair? Currently it’s nine points.
Did Nathan Cullen narrow the gap between himself and Mr. Topp? Currently it’s five points.
Did Peggy Nash get past Mr. Cullen for third? If not, she’ll be dropped off the ballot. At that point, we get a new question: Does she move immediately to Mr. Topp?