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What now?


 

Third-ballot voting will be open until 4pm EST. Here’s what I’m looking to see from the results.

How much closer to 50% can Mulcair get? Obviously the closer he gets, the better his prospects. But can he get so close as to make defeat seem impossible? And is there any sign that his growth is slowing? His second ballot support showed an increase of 8.1 percentage points, but as much as 5.8 of that could, conceivably, have been Martin Singh’s supporters.

Can Brian Topp narrow the gap? Here’s one way to look at it: There are currently 36.7 percentage points between Peggy Nash and Nathan Cullen. Mr. Topp needs 25 points from that. Mr. Mulcair needs 11.7.

Can Nathan Cullen get ahead of Mr. Topp? If not, obviously, he’s out.

How many people vote? The second ballot turnout decreased to 62,494 (from 65,108 on the first ballot). There are any number of ways to game this out—whose supporters go where and why is subject to myriad possibilities—but the actual number of votes at hand seems to be in flux. (Why? I have no idea. Could be the technical problems that were reported on the second ballot. Could be advanced voters who only listed one choice. Could be weekend voters who have drifted away to Saturday afternoon errands.)


 

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