Our View from the Hill: On Calgary Centre, Justin Trudeau and the NDP

Aaron Wherry, Nick Taylor-Vaisey, John Geddes and Paul Wells catch you up on the week


 

Today’s questions: How much does Monday’s Calgary Centre by-election matter? What was Justin Trudeau thinking? Why is nobody talking about the NDP? And how does the premiers’ meeting mesh with federal politics?

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Our View from the Hill: On Calgary Centre, Justin Trudeau and the NDP

  1. Wherry is wrong about Calgary Centre. The Reform/Alliance candidate typically got about 40% of the vote. Lee Richardson got over 50% of the vote for the Conservatives, but he is a moderate conservative. Joan Crockett is more from the Reform wing of the party, so her base vote in Calgary Centre is probably going to be closer to 40%. Joe Clark, who is essentially a socialist, won the riding with over 55% of the vote.

    I also disagree that losing Calgary Centre would be bad for Harper. Losing would help Harper reign in the far right wing of the party, who are getting noisy and overconfident.