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U.S. presidential election 2016: Live results, news and analysis

Live news, results and analysis from the 2016 U.S. presidential election


 
People vote at a polling site at Public School 261, November 8, 2016 in New York City. Citizens of the United States will choose between Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

People vote at a polling site at Public School 261, November 8, 2016 in New York City. Citizens of the United States will choose between Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Donald Trump was elected president of the United States Tuesday, as voters eager to shook up the nation’s political establishment picked the businessman to lead the country.

An unexpected Republican nominee, Trump rode a wave of support from voters seeking change and willing to accept a candidate loose with facts and accused of sexual misconduct.

In a victory that rattled financial markets worldwide, he upset Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would have become the first woman to serve in the Oval Office.

Both Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton made public appearances Tuesday morning as they voted in New York.

“It’s a humbling feeling,” Clinton said at a polling station in Chappaqua, N.Y.

Trump voted in Manhattan at about 11 a.m. “It’s a great honour, a tremendous honour,” he said, according to the Associated Press.

According to the AP, at least 46.27 million Americans had already voted by Monday — a record high. The AP predicted the number of early votes will pass 50 million this year, nearly 4 million higher than the last presidential election.

The first polls closed at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday, when voting ended in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Results started rolling soon after.

Shortly after 9 p.m., signs of an upset started to show. By about 10:30 p.m., the New York Times gave Trump an 80% chance of winning. By 11:30, they put it at close to 95%.

The Associated Press called the race for Trump shortly after 2:30 a.m. Clinton called to him to concede the race about 15 minutes later.

Maclean’s will have the latest election results and analysis as news develops.

Joe Rayment November 1, 20161:23 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Operation: Expand the red map

Even if Trump wins swing states like Florida, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina, that still might not be enough for him to get elected. That might explain why Trump is going after traditionally Democratic states, including visits to Colorado and New Mexico over the weekend, two stops in Michigan on Monday, and rallies set in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

It’s a big challenge, even with the recent FBI/Clinton scandal. According to polling data from RealClearPolitics, Trump hasn’t led in any Wisconsin or Michigan poll since the campaign started; he trails by an average of four points in Colorado; he hasn’t led a Pennsylvania poll since early July.

Read more…

Joe Rayment November 3, 20169:54 am

From Aaron Hutchins

Early voting signs

After eight years of Obama in the White House, African-Americans don’t have the same kind of enthusiasm for Clinton that she might need to win the election. In North Carolina, for example—where Obama was campaigning for Clinton on Wednesday—early voter turnout among African-Americans is down 15 per cent compared to four years ago, according to the New York Times, while white voter turnout is up 15 per cent. Meanwhile, in Florida—another swing state where a Clinton victory would all but assure her the presidency—African-Americans made up 15 per cent of early voters, down from 25 per cent four years prior, according to the Times.

Read more…

Joe Rayment November 4, 20168:41 am

From Aaron Hutchins

Melania … about that cyberbullying

Melania Trump reappeared on the campaign trail Thursday, giving a public speech for the first time since the Republican National Convention months ago—a speech widely criticized for plagiarizing a speech Michelle Obama delivered in 2008.

But on Thursday in Pennsylvania, a state where Republicans are still hopeful they’ll pull off a long-shot win, Melania outlined her plans if she is the next First Lady. Her focus? Fighting cyberbullying.

Read more…

Joe Rayment November 4, 20168:59 am

From Aaron Hutchins

Melania … about that cyberbullying

Melania Trump reappeared on the campaign trail Thursday, giving a public speech for the first time since the Republican National Convention months ago—a speech widely criticized for plagiarizing a speech Michelle Obama delivered in 2008.

But on Thursday in Pennsylvania, a state where Republicans are still hopeful they’ll pull off a long-shot win, Melania outlined her plans if she is the next First Lady. Her focus? Fighting cyberbullying.

Read more…

Joe Rayment November 6, 20161:49 pm

From Aaron Hutchins:

Getting out early

Friday was the final day of early voting in many states (some states have no early voting whatsoever) and while early numbers don’t say who Americans are voting for, per se, they do sometimes break down who votes by party registration.

With more than 37 million Americans having cast a ballot, some experts are urging people not to read too much into advanced voting numbers as a determinant of which candidate will win the state, but some states, like Nevada and North Carolina, tell an interesting story.

Read more…

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:13 am

From Aaron Hutchins

The penultimate polls

On the eve of Election Day, many polls suggest Clinton has a small—but by no means safe—lead that make her a favourite to become the next president of the United States. Nationwide polling from Fox News, Washington Post tracking and CBS News suggest Clinton has a four-point lead across the country in a four-way race including the two major third-party candidates. Other polls, like those from NBC News and Monmouth University, see her lead as being more substantial—six points—while a few such as Investor’s Business Daily tracking and the L.A. Times suggest Trump has a narrow lead.

Read more

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:09 am

From Allen Abel

Donald Trump’s last stand

Thirteen thousand people, none of them in a white robe or a pointy hood, are waiting in the autumn sun in Hershey, Pennsylvania, “The Sweetest Place on Earth.” The doors to the city’s hockey arena haven’t opened yet. Donald Trump will not take the stage for at least another six hours. Katy Perry, LeBron James, Jennifer Lopez, Beyoncé, Bruce Springsteen: none of these will attend.

Vendors move along the queue, selling T-shirts, bumper stickers and targets to be used on a rifle or pistol range. The shirts say “Hillary For Prison,” “Adorable Deplorable,” “CNN Sucks,” “If you don’t love this flag, I’ll help you pack.”

“Two for five dollars!” a woman cries, holding up sheafs of paper. Each sheet shows the face of Hillary Clinton in crosshairs. “Make as many copies as you like at home. Two for five!”

Read more…

Joe Rayment November 8, 20161:35 pm

Hillary Clinton, accompanied by her husband, former President Bill Clinton, left, smiles as she votes at Douglas G. Grafflin School in Chappaqua, N.Y., Tuesday. At far left is senior aide Huma Abedin. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Joe Rayment November 8, 20163:50 pm

From Anne Kingston

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are not equal. Period.

Last month, in a BBC interview, humourist David Sedaris provided a brilliant analogy to express his incredulity that any American could be undecided about for whom to vote. He likened the decision to a flight attendant coming down the aisle to ask, “Would you like the chicken or would you like the human feces with broken glass in it?”—only to have someone ask: “Well, how is the chicken cooked?” It’s a mark of the irrational tenor of the U.S. campaign that it needs to be said Sedaris considers Hillary Clinton the poultry option.

“How is the chicken cooked?” could be the epitaph for this election, an uncivil war in which false equivalencies between the candidates are so mind-numbing that minds have been, well, numbed. Oh, for the tame days when Matt Lauer interrupted Clinton while allowing Trump to ramble on incoherently during a televised forum. Now the FBI is reviewing newly discovered emails that may have gone through Clinton’s server, offering zero details, while not investigating ties between Donald Trump, his top advisers, and the Russian government for fear of muddying the electoral process.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20164:28 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

All quiet on the voting front

It’s Election Day, no results have been announced yet and—once again—Trump is talking about voter fraud.

While there are reports of voter intimidation and other complaints about long line-ups, there are yet to be any credible reports of the magnitude of voter fraud that Trump predicted. (Nor have there been many serious voter fraud incidents in previous elections. One study found only 31 credible incidents since the turn of the century.)

Which begs the question: Is this a prelude to Trump not conceding if he loses?

Maybe. He already avoided committing to the election results this morning in a radio interview, saying: “I want to see what happens, you know, how it goes.”

And it’s even more unlikely that he’ll concede should Nevada be the state that puts Clinton over the top. The Trump team has already filed a lawsuit against a Clark County registrar in Nevada who they allege kept voting open an extra two hours after closing time. County officials denied the allegations, saying they only allowed people to vote who had already entered the line before closing time—as is required by law.

But yes, Nevada Republican Party chairman Michael McDonald is complaining that the extra open hours were allotted “so a certain group could vote.” (That “certain group,” he didn’t say aloud, is Hispanics.)

The request to isolate the early voting ballots was shot down by a Nevada judge today, and so too was the request by Trump’s team to make the names of poll workers public for questioning at a later date.

Her response:

Read more

Joe Rayment November 8, 20164:43 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Tuesday Night Football

Most celebrities—actors, singers, athletes—have backed Clinton this campaign, but Trump is quick to shout out the names of any notable Americans who have backed him for president. The most recent came from future Hall of Fame football coach for the New England Patriots, Bill Belichick, who wrote a personal letter of support for Trump that the Republican nominee happily read aloud on stage at a rally on Monday.

Perhaps the most famous Trump-backer—according to Trump—is Tom Brady, the four-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback. A “Make American Great Again” hat was once spotted at his locker, and Brady has never hidden that fact that he and Trump are golfing buddies.

Brady has never outright endorsed Trump, but he has he said he’ll vote otherwise. He even cut off an interview with journalists short when one asked about Trump’s comments unearthed on the Access Hollywood tapes. So will he vote Trump?

If Brady’s wife Instagram feed is any sign, it’s not so cut-and-dry. From one post over the weekend, a fan asked if it’s true that she and Brady are backing Trump, Gisele Bundchen responded with an emphatic “NO!”

Does that mean neither are voting Trump or was Bundchen only speaking for herself? Brady, in his regular Monday appearance on the Kirk & Callahan Show, said he’d tell them who he voted for on next week’s show.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20164:46 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Clinton’s head start in Florida

Clinton has a head start in Florida going into Election Night. After early voting numbers were tallied up, 90,000 more registered Democrats voted than registered Republicans. (That’s not to say all registered Dems voted Clinton, or all registered Republicans voted Trump.)

Florida is essentially a must-win for Trump if he’s to be elected, while Clinton still has a path to 270 Electoral College votes without the sunshine state. Who was the last person to win a presidential election without winning Florida? That came back in 1992, when George H.W. Bush took the state but lost to Bill Clinton.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20164:57 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Lining up, but not to vote

In 1872, Susan Brownell Anthony voted in her hometown of Rochester, New York. The only thing is, women weren’t allowed to vote back then. She was arrested and fined $100, but refused to pay.

After decades of fighting, women were granted the right to vote in 1920—14 years after Anthony’s death.

And so, almost a century later, with Clinton being the first female nominee of a major U.S. political party—and on the verge of becoming the first female president in the country’s history—a crowd is forming at Anthony’s gravesite in Rochester to pay their respects. And cover her grave in “I voted” stickers.

https://twitter.com/john_kucko/status/796047183862788096

Joe Rayment November 8, 20165:00 pm

From From Charlie Gillis

Trudeau v. Trump

No nation save Mexico will be keeping closer tabs on tonight’s returns than Canada, and our Prime Minister, for one, has made no secret of his sympathies. Justin Trudeau had hardly taken office 11 months ago when he took part in a Maclean’s town hall, and bit hard on a question about Trump and what our online audience member referred to as “his hateful rhetoric.” Trudeau replied,

“I don’t think it comes as a surprise to anyone that I stand firmly against the politics of division, the politics of fear, the politics of intolerance or hateful rhetoric. If we allow politicians to succeed by scaring people, we don’t actually end up any safer. Fear doesn’t make us safer. It makes us weaker.”

He stopped short of calling out the Republican frontrunner by name, and threw in a platitude about maintaining a “positive relationship with whoever Americans choose as their president.” Still, that’s strong stuff to aim at a man who might soon be leading Canada’s most important trading partner. Our rookie PM wasn’t finished. He went on to say that leaders should respond to recent terrorist attacks by focusing on “keeping our communities united, instead of trying to build walls and scapegoat communities.”

“I mean to talk directly about the Muslim community. They are the greatest victims of terrorist acts around the world. Painting ISIS and others with a broad brush that extends to all Muslims is not just ignorant, it’s irresponsible.”

Politics is politics and rhetoric is rhetoric and nothing’s irreparable. But if this thing defies poll averages and turns into a squeaker, you can bet there’ll be some clenched buttocks in the PMO.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20165:01 pm

From Charlie Gillis

Trump’s politics, without Trump

We’ve long assumed a strong majority of Canadians share Justin Trudeau’s antipathy for Trump, the man. One expert told me that he would not fly here because middle-class Canadians haven’t suffered the economic decline of their U.S. counterparts—essentially, too few of us are in the mood for the scorched-earth politics of disruption. And sure enough, back in May, an Abacus poll found that eight of 10 Canadians would opt for Clinton if they were casting ballots in the U.S. election; among women, only 13 per cent said they’d vote for Trump.

But is it the GOP’s politics that puts us off? Or his personality? An Ipsos/Global News poll released this week suggests 76 per cent of Canadians would be “likely to consider” voting for a Canadian candidate with a platform similar to Donald Trump’s calling for tighter immigration controls, review of international trade agreements like NAFTA and cracking down on crime. There has always been a market for these ideas in Canada. Whether it can form the base of winning coalition is another question.

Food for thought as we head into a Conservative leadership race where two candidates are hitting some of the same notes as Trump.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20165:07 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

No country for old typos

Trump has made it part of his campaign strategy to say the election could well be rigged against him. So when CNN reported that some voting machines in a Utah county were having some issues, Trump quickly jumped on board… but with an extra letter.

For the record, which CNN quickly corrected on its show, there were voting machine problems in the county, not country. Big difference.

And just when you think American media is finally getting to some substance on voting day—an interview with a gentleman who explains security at the voting booths—the anchor cuts off the interview for breaking footage. Of what? Clinton’s motorcade driving to her election night meet-up spot in Manhattan.

https://twitter.com/THR/status/796108474551631872

Joe Rayment November 8, 20165:07 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

No country for old typos

Trump has made it part of his campaign strategy to say the election could well be rigged against him. So when CNN reported that some voting machines in a Utah county were having some issues, Trump quickly jumped on board… but with an extra letter.

For the record, which CNN quickly corrected on its show, there were voting machine problems in the county, not country. Big difference.

And just when you think American media is finally getting to some substance on voting day—an interview with a gentleman who explains security at the voting booths—the anchor cuts off the interview for breaking footage. Of what? Clinton’s motorcade driving to her election night meet-up spot in Manhattan.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20165:42 pm

From Jason Markusoff

How to watch the Senate races

While the poll aggregators and forecasters have basically called the presidential race, the battle to control the U.S. Senate is a complete toss-up. (The House is very unlikely to flip; Republicans are too far ahead, though they may lose a dozen seats or more.)

The FiveThirtyEight wizards have it as a 50.7%/49.3% toss-up that favours Democrats because the vice-president is the Senate’s tie-breaker, and their presidential polls model has Clinton as a 71-per-cent favourite. The Democrats must win at least four to gain control of the Senate, or five if Trump wins.

Here’s a schedule of when the voting in the toss-up states ends.

6pm ET: Polls in the eastern portion of Indiana close. That’s where vice-presidential candidate Mike Pence is governor, and it’s a safe Trump state. Evan Bayh, a former senator part of a beloved Indiana dynasty, was long believed to be a lock to make this empty seat Democrat; but lately, he’s been hammered as a D.C. insider who’s long lost touch with his home state, and even struggled to remember his Indiana address.

7pm: Florida is a must-win state for Donald Trump, but his former rival Marco Rubio seems a safer bet to win his second Senate term here. Voting also closes in the crucial swing state New Hampshire, where incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte has strained at times to distance herself from Trump. She faces the state’s current Democrat governor.

7:30pm: North Carolina is interesting in the presidential contest, but Republican Sen. Richard Burr is in for a battle to keep his seat. State suppression tactics against the African-American vote may help him.

8pm: A bunch of races close: Pennsylvania, where incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey has refused to say if he’ll vote for the Republican nominee; Illinois, where a moderate Republican never-Trumper made an awkwardly racist jibe against his Thailand-born opponent, a combat veteran. The Senate contest is also tight in the otherwise red state of Missouri.

9pm: Trump is trying to flip Wisconsin, a longtime blue state. Democrat candidate Russ Feingold has a better chance of flipping it into his category. He held this seat from 1993 to 2011.

10pm: Nevada could prove decisive late on Tuesday. Longtime Democrat leader Harry Reid is retiring, and Joe Heck has the Republican’s best chance to flip a state in their favour. He disavowed Trump after the Access Hollywood tape come out, and Trump fans have made him possibly regret his decision; he’s since wavered.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20165:47 pm

From The Associated Press

George W. Bush voted “none of the above”

A spokesman says former President George W. Bush did not vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Freddy Ford says the most recent Republican president voted “none of the above for president and Republican down-ballot.” That means Bush voted for Republicans in congressional and local races.

It’s not a complete surprise. The Bush family includes the two most recent Republican presidents but neither endorsed nor campaigned for the billionaire businessman who captured the party’s nomination. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was a one-time favourite to win the GOP presidential nomination until Trump got into the race and branded him with a name that stuck: “Low energy.”

Joe Rayment November 8, 20165:48 pm

From Jason Markusoff

How to watch the Senate races

While the poll aggregators and forecasters have basically called the presidential race, the battle to control the U.S. Senate is a complete toss-up. (The House is very unlikely to flip; Republicans are too far ahead, though they may lose a dozen seats or more.)

The FiveThirtyEight wizards have it as a 50.7%/49.3% toss-up that favours Democrats because the vice-president is the Senate’s tie-breaker, and their presidential polls model has Clinton as a 71-per-cent favourite. The Democrats must win at least four to gain control of the Senate, or five if Trump wins.

Here’s a schedule of when the voting in the toss-up states ends.

6pm ET: Polls in the eastern portion of Indiana close. That’s where vice-presidential candidate Mike Pence is governor, and it’s a safe Trump state. Evan Bayh, a former senator part of a beloved Indiana dynasty, was long believed to be a lock to make this empty seat Democrat; but lately, he’s been hammered as a D.C. insider who’s long lost touch with his home state, and even struggled to remember his Indiana address.

7pm: Florida is a must-win state for Donald Trump, but his former rival Marco Rubio seems a safer bet to win his second Senate term here. Voting also closes in the crucial swing state New Hampshire, where incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte has strained at times to distance herself from Trump. She faces the state’s current Democrat governor.

7:30pm: North Carolina is interesting in the presidential contest, but Republican Sen. Richard Burr is in for a battle to keep his seat. State suppression tactics against the African-American vote may help him.

8pm: A bunch of races close: Pennsylvania, where incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey has refused to say if he’ll vote for the Republican nominee; Illinois, where a moderate Republican never-Trumper made an awkwardly racist jibe against his Thailand-born opponent, a combat veteran. The Senate contest is also tight in the otherwise red state of Missouri.

9pm: Trump is trying to flip Wisconsin, a longtime blue state. Democrat candidate Russ Feingold has a better chance of flipping it into his category. He held this seat from 1993 to 2011.

10pm: Nevada could prove decisive late on Tuesday. Longtime Democrat leader Harry Reid is retiring, and Joe Heck has the Republican’s best chance to flip a state in their favour. He disavowed Trump after the Access Hollywood tape come out, and Trump fans have made him possibly regret his decision; he’s since wavered.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20166:07 pm

From Sarah Boesveld

Holy crap, America might* elect its first woman president

It’s hard to believe the United States might be mere hours away from electing the first woman president. Might is, of course, the operative there. America could very well choose Donald Trump for its commander-in-chief and then where will we be? In hell? About to start “Making America Great Again” with no ideas or plans in place? I mean, their call, really.

But it is hard to believe that this historic moment for women is actually within reach because everyone has been so terrified of the alternative. As Samantha Bee put it in last night’s election eve episode of her late-night show Full Frontal, “this is supposed to be our moment…and yet none of us have gotten to savour this historic election as we should. It’s been like running a marathon while a bear is chasing you.”

Hells yes, I’ve got my pantsuit on. But I’m not just watching for a Hillary victory tonight—I’m also watching the other historic races for women in this election. If Denise Juneau of Montana wins a seat for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, she’ll become the first Native American woman ever elected to Congress. And how about Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada? If she gets elected to the Senate as a Democrat, she’d become the first Latina senator in the history of the U.S. Misty Snow and Misty Plowright are both running for Congress, and are both the first two openly transgender to do so (actually to run for any elected federal office at all).

Joe Rayment November 8, 20166:08 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

The Michigan Miracle?

With one simple tweet from well-known pollster Frank Luntz, all of a sudden America is wondering if Trump could actually win Michigan.

An influx of voter registration and absentee ballots has some news outlets speculating whether Michigan might hit record voting numbers this year. Depending on where those votes are coming from, that could be great news for Trump.
But could Trump actually win a state where every single poll (save one) since August has had Clinton in the lead? Maybe.

Trump’s very last campaign stop of the election was in Michigan, and it crept past midnight into the early hours of Tuesday. It’s doubtful he’d be there unless the internal polling numbers from Republicans suggest he had a chance. The Democrats might have also seen enough reason to worry that they dispatched Barack Obama for a rally on Monday. Obama was quick to tout his historic bailout of the auto sector during the 2008 financial crisis.

It’s possible that Trump has struck a chord with blue-collar voters with his threat to companies like Ford that should they move their factories south to Mexico, he would consider putting a 35-per-cent tariff to get them back into the country—a fee that would be business suicide for the auto maker. Indeed, Trump’s words may have a bigger impact than Obama’s actions.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20166:17 pm

From Charlie Gillis

Who’s to bless, and who’s to blame

If this felt like a zipless election—all air and no substance—feel free to yell at your TV. Donald Trump’s histrionics were a sure ratings grabber, after all, but the networks indulged him with unprecedented cynicism. All tolled, CBS, NBC and ABC nightly newscasts dedicated a measly 32 minutes to policy issues in their election coverage. Not just this week, or this month, but in all of 2016! This according to Andrew Tyndall, an American blogger who does a splendid job monitoring network news. He figures it to be a record- low dating back to 1988.

What does Tyndall mean by issues coverage? The kind that considers a problem facing the country, describes the candidates’ platform positions and proposals and evaluates the efficacy of said planks. Time was, TV news considered this a useful exercise, but no more. In 2016, the talking points of the candidates on issues like immigration, gun control, U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and infrastructure received next to no scrutiny on the nightly casts. Tyndall’s assessment doesn’t include cable news channels like CNN and Fox, but anyone who’s watched them knows they’re just as bad. Somehow, we’ve gotten used to watching panels of party grandees and partisan blowhards for hours on end, with no penetrating analysis of the problems their candidates claim to fix.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20166:21 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

What, we worry?

What have Canadians been searching on Google over the past 24 hours? By the looks of it, they’re really wondering (perhaps out of worry) if Trump is going to win.

Meanwhile in the U.S., there’s no shortage of American curiosity over which candidate belongs to which party. And perhaps there’s a last-second search for a good reason to vote Trump.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20166:40 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

BREAKING NEWS—SUPER-IMPORTANT STUFF HERE

Despite how much CNN tries to polish the importance of their early map, these Kentucky and Indiana results should not be of “key race alert” status. Both states will go to Trump—and quite comfortably. Trump had an 11-point advantage in Indiana polls and a 17-point advantage in Kentucky.

Worry not, Clinton supporters—and don’t get ahead of yourself, Trump fans. This is pretty much equivalent to saying Clinton will win the Obama vote.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20166:42 pm

Dear Pantsuit Nation

Today women all over the U.S. (and a few in Canada, too) wore pantsuits to work — and to the polls. This evening, Hillary Clinton reached out to them, and specifically to the invite-only Facebook group, Pantsuit Nation, with a heartfelt letter.

Dear Pantsuit Nation (have you ever heard a better name?!),

On this historic day, I wanted to take a moment to thank you for your support from the bottom of my heart.

This election hasn’t been easy: It’s been long, hard-fought, and at times it made us question who we are as Americans. For some of you, it’s been difficult to feel like you could wear your support on your sleeve — and that’s why this community has been such a special place. Your stories and photos of family members and friends are wonderful to see, but what truly warms my heart is the thousands of comments of support and love you all send to each other. I’m honored and humbled to have all of you with me, but I’m even prouder to see this community represent the best of America: people of all backgrounds and beliefs who share a vision for a brighter future for our children, and who have each other’s backs. That’s who we really are, and tonight, we’re going to prove it.

Thank you all so much for your support, your hard work, and your votes. Tonight, I hope we’ll finally break through that highest, hardest glass ceiling together, and use those pantsuits for the best occasion of all — celebrating!

-H

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:12 pm

From Jason Markusoff

It’s the end of the world as we know it (And I might soon feel fine)

I told a friend I couldn’t go out drinking tonight. “Well good luck tonight—hopefully the world doesn’t end!” he replied. We’ve heard a lot of apocalyptic language from progressives and anti-Trump types, wary of what happens when the United States elects an impulsive nationalist prone to erratic behaviour. The financial markets may act as though it was, as Trump is fond of saying, Brexit times 10.

But so often in right-wing talk radio and among Trump supporters, you hear parallel doomsday language about a Clinton presidency. “We’re not going to have a country anymore,” Trump is fond of saying.

One of the greatest political victories of Trump and the Republicans has been simultaneously painting Hillary Clinton as a more-of-the-same guardian of the status quo, and as a bringer of the rapid decline of the American empire.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:13 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Call me, maybe

Feel like this night is dragging on? Wondering when they will finally call states for either Trump or Clinton?

If four years ago is any guide, expect a call of Clinton winning Vermont and Trump winning Kentucky at five minutes past the hour. That’s exactly when the Associated Press called the two states for Obama and Romney, respectively, in 2012.

And between 7pm and 8pm ET, the AP also called Romney winning West Virginia, South Carolina and Indiana. Finally, at 8:01pm, it called a slew of states for Obama: Illinois, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts and Maine.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:14 pm

From Charlie Gillis

Oh yeah, Congress

Worth keeping an eye on the Senate and House results. If Clinton wins, the composition of Congress would go a long way to shaping her term—i.e. whether Americans spend the next two to four years locked in partisan warfare. A Republican majority would leave Clinton vulnerable to partisan attacks through GOP-controlled committees. Already, some Republican incumbents are promising to try to impeach her if Trump loses.

As things stand, the Republicans hold 54 of 100 Senate seats, and 247 of 435 seats in the House of Representatives. Thirty-two Senate seats are up for grabs tonight and the Dems need to add five to break the log jam. As for the House, all 435 districts are up for election.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:17 pm

Remember the old Giuliani?

Our Ottawa bureau chief John Geddes has just written a post about former New York City mayor (and stout Trump surrogate) Rudy Giuliani, and how he represents a moment where the uniquely American emotional experience of following the U.S. election felt too real and universal.

“It’s because Giuliani occupies an odd niche in my memory. He was, for the whole world, a great figure in the weeks after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. Remember how inspiring he was then as mayor of New York? I was in his city couple of months later, covering something called the Canada Loves New York weekend for Maclean’s.

The highlight was Giuliani speaking at a rally of Canadians at the old Roseland Ballroom, a classic Manhattan landmark. Before he addressed the crowd of about 2,500, I managed to position myself where I could see what was going on backstage. There was Giuliani, slumped pale and motionless in a chair, looking nearly unconscious. He had been working almost nonstop since the attacks. I felt embarrassed that the Canadian organizers had imposed upon him. But then he was introduced, the crowd cheered, and he pulled himself upright, strode energetically to the podium, and delivered a fine speech.

It was a small moment, but I tucked it away as emblematic of something. Giuliani long ago made me feel foolish for that.”

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:18 pm

From Charlie Gillis

Countdown to the madness

Okay, polls about to start closing in rapid succession. As they say in New Orleans, “let the bon ton roolay!”

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:27 pm

From Jason Markusoff

Don’t believe the early landslide

While the vote counting is still in its infancy, a good time to remind everyone how little stock we should put into early results. With five per cent of Indiana’s votes in after 7 p.m., Donald Trump is winning the Hoosier state by 27 percentage points. That is way better than the polls, which showed something closer to an 11.5-per-cent margin in Indiana. But that includes exactly zero votes from Marion County, which includes Indianapolis. It’s unlikely Clinton will suddenly win the state where Republican running mate Mike Pence is governor, but it doesn’t mean we should at all expect a massive landslide for Trump there. At 7:15, CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer gave a “key race alert” about a big Trump lead for Florida. Then he threw to John King, who calmly reported those numbers were coming from the rural north, which is as Bible Belt as much of the south.

In other words: don’t get excited by what Blitzer says on CNN. Pay attention to John King, the magic-map man.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:33 pm

From Jaime Weinman

What if W had spoken up?

The news that George W. Bush and his wife Laura didn’t vote for Trump (or Clinton) brings up an interesting question: could the Bushes have stopped Trump—who obviously loathes them, and is loathed in return—by coming out more strongly against him? Or would that simply have reinforced his anti-establishment credentials?

At the very least, it’s possible that if George W. Bush had spoken out against Trump, that would have helped him, because, well, George W. Bush’s perceived failures are part of what made Trump successful in the first place. Some Republicans might have been able to turn voters against Trump if they’d been willing to oppose him publicly, but Bush might actually have helped Clinton more by not coming out against her opponent.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:34 pm

From Nick Taylor-Vaisey

The hockey update you didn’t think you needed

Perhaps it wasn’t the smartest decision for the NHL to put a marquee match-up of Sidney Crosby vs. Connor McDavid (aka. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Edmonton Oilers) the same evening as Election Night. But for what it’s worth, Pittsburgh has an early 1-0 lead and the Sportsnet Win Tracker gives the Pens a 56% chance of winning. Hockey update over.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:43 pm

Canadian politicians weigh in

Canada’s first—and only—female PM, Kim Campbell, gives her take on the U.S. election, speaking from her home in France:

“People are on tenterhooks here [in France]. They are very nervous about this election—as am I. Donald Trump is a very dangerous candidate. I was a Soviet specialist in my youth and I’ve continued to follow what’s happening in Russia—and I think his admiration for Putin and all the things he’s said about NATO are totally destructive and totally inappropriate. They demonstrate a bad set of values or profound ignorance. I think he’s unleashed a form of political violence and he has validated a form of discourse and behaviour which is really very dangerous and worrisome. I just think he is totally unfit to be President.

On the other hand I think that Hillary Clinton is totally fit to be President and I think it will be a wonderful milestone to have the first female President of the United States.”

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:44 pm

From Sarah Boesveld

Let’s get to the real action, already

Can we talk for one hot minute about the experience of watching the election results come in via these major cable news networks? “KEY RACE ALERT” bleats for your attention on CNN only to tell you it’s “too close to call.” The map behind the anchors is all but blank, but we do get some lovely yellow blotches for these aforementioned “too close to call” states. Also very fond of the “next polls close” countdown. The anticipation and time wasting is all part of the show, but guess what? It doesn’t. Tell. Us. Anything. Polls aren’t even closed in half the country and most of the votes aren’t even counted. Though the anchors are very convincing in telling us, however, that we need to hang on their every word. No wonder America is anxious.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:50 pm

From Charlie Gillis

Orange may be Trump’s favourite colour

As we watch Florida put the world on tenterhooks again, mind that the state’s polls aren’t all closed until 8 p.m. The western panhandle comes late, and it’s a pretty red part of the state. If Trump is ahead 15 minutes from now, you’d think that’s a good sign for him.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:58 pm

From Jason Markusoff

Disavowing Trump does the trick

CNN made a very early call in Ohio’s Senate race, calling it for Republican incumbent Rob Portman. He’s one of several swing-state Republican candidates who refused to endorse Donald Trump, or straight-up didn’t vote for him. That also includes Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Mark Kirk of Illinois, Joe Heck of Nevada and Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey—who wouldn’t say whom he would choose for president. Those candidates seem to believe that steering clear of the bombastic presidential nominee keeps them away from Trump haters, and gives them a shot with anti-Clinton independents and moderates. It seemed to work for Portman, and Trump is also favoured to take the state. Should he become president, how will he get along with the anti-Trump contingent in his own party? (I mean, how will he get along with anybody, but that’s a hypothetical for another post.)

Joe Rayment November 8, 20167:59 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Checking in on a Trump supporter

Arthur Robertson quickly admits he’s getting a bit antsy watching the results coming in on TV. He voted earlier today in rural Ohio, where there was a bit a lineup for him and his wife. While most of the people in the area voted Trump, Robertson knows his district isn’t representative of the rest of the state. So whenever the nerves get the best of him, he just switches to the Investigation Discovery channel. Right now, he’s watching a show called Swamp Murders. “It’s kind of addictive,” he says. “I got tired of watching the news.”

And so he switches back to check in on election results. “It looks like Trump is winning in Virginia right now, which is a surprise,” he says. “But it hasn’t been called yet.”

When asked about his nerves, Robertson expresses some quiet confidence. “I think [Trump] is going to win pretty decently,” he says. “I think a lot of people say they don’t like Trump aloud, but in the voting booth they’ll vote for him.”

Robertson isn’t too worked up about Trump winning Indiana or Kentucky, or get too worried to see Clinton take Vermont. He knows the map and which states are in flux.

“Ohio and North Carolina are coming up pretty soon,” he says. “So far so good.”

Back to Swamp Murders.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20168:00 pm

From Jaime Weinman

The normalization of Trump

The one thing that seems clear, whoever wins tonight, is that Trump and the Republican party successfully managed to sell him as basically a normal Republican candidate. This seems astounding if you think about how abnormal a candidate he is and how much opposition he had within his own party—but all the predictions of a historic Clinton landslide, or Republicans defecting to Clinton or staying home en masse, seem to have been premature at best. He is performing the way you’d expect a Republican candidate to perform, a little better in some places, a little worse in others, and what we’re seeing is a close election in a sharply polarized country, not all that much different from the last few elections.

It’s hard to say if it would ever have been possible to de-normalize Trump once he won the nomination. With the machinery and support of one of the two big parties behind him, he was normalized by default. But it does seem to be something the Clinton campaign didn’t succeed at doing: they hoped to turn Trump into Goldwater or McGovern (both of whom, let’s remember, were U.S. senators), and they couldn’t do it; Republicans mostly supported their man. Maybe the Clinton campaign needed to be more aware that the age of landslides is past, and the Republicans could nominate virtually anyone and perform respectably.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20168:17 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Voter fraud alert

The Fort Bend County Sheriff’s Office has announced they arrested someone trying to vote twice—and it’s a Trump supporter.

After weeks of Trump claiming the votes on Election Day would be rigged against him, it seems to be Trump supporters getting their hand caught reaching in the cookie jar—so to speak—twice.
Last week in Iowa, Terri Rote was caught voting twice, later telling local radio she did it because she feared the polling machine would switch her vote to Clinton. “I wasn’t planning on doing it twice, it was a spur of the moment,”

she said. “The polls are rigged.”

As for the current double voter in Texas? According to police, he said he was just trying to test the system.

It turns out the system worked.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20168:19 pm

From The Associated Press

Marco Rubio remains a U.S. Senator

Marco Rubio failed in his bid to end up in the White House, but he’s still going back to Washington. Florida voters elected him to a second term in the Senate on Tuesday.

He had wavered for months before deciding to run for re-election. He beat back a challenge from Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, who has repeatedly tried to link Rubio to Donald Trump.

The two Senate candidates differed starkly on a number of issues — including guns, health care, foreign policy, economic issues and abortion. Each sought to leverage voter discontent with both the GOP and Democratic nominees.

Rubio held onto had a narrow lead in polling going into Election Day over Murphy, who was abandoned by his own party after Democratic bosses decided to pull ad money from expensive Florida and invest it in Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana, instead.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20168:34 pm

From Jason Markusoff

Florida, up to its old tricks again

For a while there, there was 28-vote lead for Trump in Florida, with more than eight million votes counted. That’s 48.487883 per cent to 48.487652 per cent. For reference, the month-long recount of Florida in 2000 gave the state to George W. Bush over Al Gore with a 537-vote margin.

If the race is within 0.5 percentage points, there’s another automatic recount in Florida. In 2012, it took the state four days of vote counting (including absentee ballots) before Florida was called decisively for Obama. Of course, Obama won comfortably enough that losing Florida didn’t matter for him.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20168:35 pm

From Sarah Boesveld

The Latino vote surges

Florida, Nevada and Virginia—and even North Carolina—are seeing far higher than normal levels of Latino voters, commentators are saying tonight. That’s a cohort that has typically stayed home. We knew this was a thing before tonight—roughly 565,000 Hispanic voters had turned out by this past Saturday the Tampa Bay Times said—a 100 per cent boost over 2012. Trump is getting a lot of credit for this increased voter turnout. This part of the electorate would rather not see a guy in office who has promised to build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico and see “illegals” deported. Not good for the Republican party, which actually did have quite a good relationship with Latinos when George W. Bush was in power.


Joe Rayment November 8, 20168:44 pm

From David Agren

A dispatch from Mexico City

Mexicans showed a crushing indifference to previous U.S. elections, figuring neither candidate was especially friendly to their interests, while anti-Americanism—an old standby during the days of one-party rule—ran high. But with Donald Trump trashing Mexico and Mexicans, and promising to fence off the border, interest in this election is running high. “It’s the first election we really care about,” says Estevan Illades, editor of the magazine Nexos. “There’s imminent danger.”

There is plenty of anxiety here. It’s been expressed by bashing Trump piñatas, burning Trump effigies in Easter rituals (in which a person deemed to have hurt the community is blown up in the public square), and even serving Trump tacos made with lots of tongue, a bit of brains and a snout. “Mexican society is now discussing this not as an internal issue, but one that affects them,” Ilán Semo, a history professor at the Iberoamerican University, says of the election.

Some express worry over the estimated 11 million Mexicans living in the United States, many of whom prop up pueblos back home with remittances. And there’s a special concern in business circles, too, as cross-border trade amounts to $1 million a minute—something Trump threatens to stop with promises of ripping up NAFTA and slapping a 35-per-cent tariff on imports.

At a BBQ restaurant called Pinche Gringo tonight, at an election viewing party organized by Democrats Abroad, early results showing Hillary Clinton with a lead in Florida prompted a round of shouts.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20168:58 pm

Spoiler on the ballot

Florida has become the night’s massive nailbiter. After 8:30 p.m., Trump has 48.9 per cent, Clinton has 48.0 per cent, and then the third-party candidates split the rest, mostly Gary Johnson with 2.2 per cent and Jill Stein with 0.7. Should Trump (or Clinton) win narrowly in this state and it proves decisive, expect plenty more grumbling like this:

Let’s hope there aren’t too many 2000 comparisons after tonight, but the same sort of kvetching was directed at Green candidate Ralph Nader, who peeled thousands of votes off Al Gore’s score in 2000.

Puhlease. Voters in Florida, and elsewhere in the country, know that they risk “throwing their vote away” if they don’t mark a Republican or Democrat, and that Florida would be extremely close between Clinton and Trump. Do we want democratic diversity, or do we want a pure blue pill/red pill binary?

Joe Rayment November 8, 20168:59 pm

From The Associated Press

Charlie Crist finally won another election

Former Florida Republican Gov. Charlie Crist is reviving his political career as a Democrat and will serve in Congress after beating Republican U.S. Rep. David Jolly.

Crist’s victory Tuesday in the St. Petersburg-area seat comes after he lost the 2010 U.S. Senate race as an independent and the 2014 governor’s race as a Democrat.

Crist decided to run for the U.S. House after the state Supreme Court ordered Florida lawmakers to redraw congressional districts. The new district became more heavily Democratic, making it more difficult for Jolly to retain his seat.

Crist was one of the state’s most successful politicians until he ran for Senate instead of seeking a second term as governor. Marco Rubio chased him from the GOP primary and Crist’s independent bid failed. Crist changed parties after the election.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:00 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Checking in on a Trump supporter

One hour since he last spoke with Maclean’s, Arthur Robertson is off the Investigation Discovery channel and is now glued to Fox News. Clinton is up in Ohio and North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while Trump has a narrow lead in Florida and Virginia.

“He’s got to win all them states—Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania,” he starts to list off. “I don’t know. It’s going to be tough but I haven’t given up yet.”

He still has confidence in a Trump victory, unless Ohio or Florida get called for the Democrats. “There’s no way he’s going to win unless he wins those states.”

Robertson says he’ll be glad it’s all over come tomorrow. If Trump wins, “It’ll be like getting my old country back,” he says. “America will be tough again.” It’ll be a return to the days of Ronald Reagan, he predicts.

And what would tomorrow morning be like if Clinton is the president-elect? “I’ll be disappointed,” he says. “My family, our life will go on. But my country, I’ll be disappointed. She’ll nominate liberal supreme court judges—anti-gun, pro abortion.” Just Another typical politician in his eyes.

“I truly believe this election decides America’s fate of conservatism or liberalism.”

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:00 pm

From Charlie Gillis

The Texas two-step

Taking time out from Florida Watch here to have a squint at the Lone Star State. With half the polls in, Clinton was running neck and neck with Trump, trailing by just two points. Prognosticators suggested a Dem win in Texas was unlikely. But it looks possible, given that some blue-tinted counties in the south with large Hispanic populations have yet to report. If it happens, it will be quite a coup—and an indictment of the hollowed-out Trump campaign. Texas, after all, has been reliably Republican in presidential votes since 1980. That’s nine elections, and five administrations.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:06 pm

From Jaime Weinman

Why Florida is so close

Steve Schale, who was Florida state director for Barack Obama in 2008, notes that Hillary Clinton’s surge in voting has been matched by a surge for Trump: “Her margins in the urban areas are basically records. His margins in exurban areas are basically records. It is a pretty crazy map here.” A few minutes later, he added: “in 41 counties in Florida, Trump’s share is better than the best share that any R has gotten since 2000.” The division of the U.S.—on racial, educational and geographic lines—may have created a situation in which both parties’ bases are equally fired up to get out and vote, and who wins will depend on whose team is bigger.

This is not a pretty situation, partly because Trump’s improved performance over McCain and Romney may encourage more Republicans to see base mobilization as the key to winning elections. In 2013, mainstream Republicans advised trying to appeal more to an increasingly diverse America. Trump bet that the way to win was, instead, to try and appeal to the “missing white voters“, turning out more of the Republicans’ white exurban and rural base. If his way works, then more Republicans will conclude that whatever America might look like 20 years from now, the best practical strategy is to concentrate on the groups that already like them.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:07 pm

From Jaime Weinman

Why Florida is so close

Steve Schale, who was Florida state director for Barack Obama in 2008, notes that Hillary Clinton’s surge in voting has been matched by a surge for Trump: “Her margins in the urban areas are basically records. His margins in exurban areas are basically records. It is a pretty crazy map here.” A few minutes later, he added: “in 41 counties in Florida, Trump’s share is better than the best share that any R has gotten since 2000.” The division of the U.S.—on racial, educational and geographic lines—may have created a situation in which both parties’ bases are equally fired up to get out and vote, and who wins will depend on whose team is bigger.

This is not a pretty situation, partly because Trump’s improved performance over McCain and Romney may encourage more Republicans to see base mobilization as the key to winning elections. In 2013, mainstream Republicans advised trying to appeal more to an increasingly diverse America. Trump bet that the way to win was, instead, to try and appeal to the “missing white voters,” turning out more of the Republicans’ white exurban and rural base. If his way works, then more Republicans will conclude that whatever America might look like 20 years from now, the best practical strategy is to concentrate on the groups that already like them.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:15 pm

From Sarah Boesveld

Emotion of the moment: apprehension

I have very little to report right now other than that my heart is pounding a lot harder and faster than it was about 15 minutes ago. Over and out.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:24 pm

From Charlie Gillis

Red-meat state

Sixty-one per cent of polls in and the nets are declaring Trump a winner in Texas. The Dem surge was just a mirage.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:37 pm

From Jason Markusoff

The other green vote

Voters in five states might legalize recreational marijuana through ballot measures tonight, including California, which is more populous than Canada. The other states are Massachusetts, Maine, Nevada and Arizona. Polls showed the state referenda had a good chance to prevail in all of them, joining taxed-weed states Colorado and Washington (also voter-driven legalizations).

In early results in Massachusetts, it was 51-49 in favour of the Boston party tea. It’s barely better in Maine, so far.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:38 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Playing the percentages

In this election, polling analysts were fond of predicting states going Democrat or Republican using percentages, thus allowing them to give the odds that either Trump or Clinton would win the election.

Going into Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight.com gave Clinton a 71.4 per cent shot at winning. The New York Times Upshot was a bit more favourable for her with 85 per cent. PredictWise gave Clinton an 81 per cent chance of victory while Huffington Post said Clinton was a virtual guarantee to win: 98 per cent. (You can just hear Jim Carrey’s character in Dumb & Dumber saying, “So you’re saying there’s a chance!”)

Of course, all of them favoured a Clinton win in Florida and North Carolina, where Trump looks poised to win in both. (Especially Florida, barring a huge Democratic comeback.)

What happened?

So what does this mean in terms of the odds. Clinton can lose Ohio, North Carolina and Ohio—and still win the presidency. But she’d couldn’t afford to lose any other battleground states. Even tiny New Hampshire’s four electoral college votes could put Trump over the edge.

So what are the odds now, according to a live tracker of incoming votes tallied by the New York Times? It’s practically a coin flip.


Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:39 pm

From Andray Domise

Cut Florida off and throw it into the sea

“The farther north you go, the farther south you get,” goes an old adage in Florida, home to the top-ranked historically Black public university in the country, destination of first resort for Cuban and Haitian newcomers, and ground zero for the Dale Earnhardt fans who swapped their No. 3 caps for Make America Great Again snapbacks.

Unlike Ohio and Pennsylvania, whose “swing vote” status were rightly earned by dint of their postwar manufacturing history, Florida has had an obnoxious, insistent presence in U.S. politics since the 2000 election by sheer virtue of the state’s dysfunction. This is the state that, after electing Connie Mack’s tanned and charismatic protégé Charlie Crist to the governor’s seat, deemed a healthcare robber baron and Bond villain, Rick Scott, fit to lead. The state whose experiments with standardized education and de-integration of public schools created “failure factories,” and whose nonsense ballots in Palm Beach County paralyzed the country’s democratic system for months, before the Supreme Court handed George W. Bush the presidency.

According to reported polls, Florida’s metropolitan centres are working diligently to push the state into Hillary Clinton’s column. This, in the shadow of a record-breaking early voter turnout—more early votes were received in Florida than all votes counted during the 2000 election. But as we stretch into this evening of loathing and discontent, the state is tilting out of the “too early to count” column and towards putting Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Florida is also sending Marco Rubio back to the U.S. Senate, resuscitating the career of former DNC chairman and Hillary Clinton fixer Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, and once again opening the door to human pylon Alcee Hastings.

The state is fundamentally broken, hardly contributing more than case studies in racial and class inequalities, with the occasional bizarre news story that sucks the oxygen out of social media spaces for a day or two. But, for whatever reason, American democracy has risen and fallen on Florida’s say-so for over 40 years.

Build that wall, alright. Right across the Florida state border.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:51 pm

From Nick Taylor-Vaisey

America’s perfect voters, put to the test

The voters of Ottawa County, a collection of small farming and tourism communities along the Lake Erie shoreline, have voted for the winning presidential nominee in every election since 1964. Tonight, with that streak on the line, they chose Trump over Clinton—and it wasn’t all that close.

With all precincts reporting, Trump won 12,389 of 21,742 votes cast—or 56.98 per cent. That’s the unofficial total, of course, so the final numbers may vary slightly.

What we don’t yet know is the tally in Carroll Township’s first precinct. Among all of Ottawa’s individual precincts, only Carroll 1 has a perfect record going back to ’64. We’ll report those numbers as soon as they’re in.

Joe Rayment November 8, 20169:54 pm

From David Agren

Meanwhile, in Mexico City…

What was promoted as a “Hillary Clinton Victory Party” at a Mexico City BBQ joint—with brisket, beer and a DJ—is increasingly turning into a solemn affair as the CNN feed shows Donald Trump coming closer to claiming Florida. Patrons are anxiously fiddling with their smartphones. Cheers are rare. Rain, a rarity outside of the summer rainy season in Mexico City, has poured especially hard.

Beyond the BBQ joint—called “Pinche Gringo” or “F-ing Gringo”—the country’s currency, the peso, which has ridden a roller coaster reflecting Trump’s proximity to the presidency, is plunging. Social media seems quieter, too, with none of the memes from earlier in the day of Trump in a Cruz Azul jersey, the local soccer squad which perpetually finishes second in most heartbreaking ways imaginable (not unlike the Toronto Maple Leafs). More than 3,000 people on Facebook said they would cheer at the Angel of Independence monument—the spot Mexicans celebrate soccer victories—after Trump is declared loser. It will happen late—if it happens at all.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:02 pm

From Sarah Boesveld

The biggest loser

As Donald Trump does “remarkably well” in States that President Barack Obama carried twice, a panic washes across Canada (at least from what we can see online). The New York Times, for right now anyway, says there is a strong chance Trump—who some media, in the early days, vowed not to cover because he was such a long shot joke—might become the next President of the United States tonight. President Trump. Which begs the question: Did we, in our media bubble, really get this so wrong? Did we ignore or overlook or not take seriously the Americans who have felt disenfranchised about the direction in which their country is going? Those who have really responded to the “Make America Great Again” sloganeering?

I’d like to see the voter turnout to know for sure—and alas, this thing can and very well might completely turn. But it’s been a very unsettling night for those who thought Clinton was a lock. I’m not sure anyone expected this race to be so tight.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:03 pm

Just a couple embedded MPs

The NDP’s Nathan Cullen and Conservative Party’s Tony Clement are taking a bird’s eye view:

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:12 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Trump’s rubber stamp?

Besides the obvious ideological differences between Obama’s eight years in office and the increasingly likely prospect of a Trump presidency, perhaps the biggest difference the next four years will have is their level of control.

For the past six years, Obama has often been stifled by a Republican-majority House of Representatives, and same goes for the Republican-controlled Senate for the past two years. Based on today’s election results, Republicans are poised to maintain control in Congress and the Senate. All of which means a Trump presidency wouldn’t have the same hurdles, conflict, vetoes and executive orders to get anything accomplished. It’d be Republican control across the board: White House, House of Representatives, Senate and—once Trump picks a Supreme Court justice to fill the lone vacancy—the highest federal court, too.

Which means if Trump wins, the only people who can stop him are his own party. Don’t bank on that.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:13 pm

From Jason Markusoff

Black Wednesday?

As the New York Times forecaster needle teetered toward Donald Trump, traders panicked. The Dow Jones futures market is now down 480 points, which amounts to shedding nearly three per cent. Financial markets jumped two per cent Monday, when the FBI news gave a bump to Hillary Clinton, the candidate of predictability. The Mexican peso also plummets when Trump gains.

Should the man who has never been a politician become the world’s most important politician, expect more investor disaster.

Here’s how Fortune put it, based on a note from the world’s largest hedge fund:

“Dow could have its worst day in history, by far. If Donald Trump wins the election, kiss your 401(k) goodbye.” Bridgewater Associates suggested a 2,000-point drop for the Dow on Wednesday if Trump is victorious. That’s nearly triple the meltdown in October 2008.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:14 pm

From Jaime Weinman

Which is the wrong side of history?

We don’t even know who’s going to win yet, and already the online air is thick with discussions of what the Democrats did wrong. Obviously it seems that whatever the result, they overestimated their strength—or, as many people online are already saying, they underestimated the strength of racism or white identity politics.

The scariest thing for the Democrats, even if they pull it out, may be in facing the fact that Trump voters’ behaviour is, by their own lights, rational. As Democrats pointed out frequently, America’s demographics are changing. Many Trump voters are old enough to remember a time when demographics were very different, because of the relatively restrictive immigration laws the U.S. had from 1924 to the mid-1960s. They may believe that changing demographics will change the culture of the country and reduce the cultural dominance of the groups they belong to—because it’s true. What exactly can a liberal, multicultural political party offer people who feel that they will be unhappier in a more liberal, multicultural country? More than that, how could the Democrats compromise on liberalism and multiculturalism without betraying their own base? They’d wind up selling out what they believe in, probably for no political gain.

The U.S. is hardly the only country in the world that is caught between people who want a more diverse, multicultural country and those who don’t. The mistake may have been to assume that the people who don’t are on the wrong side of history and can therefore be dismissed. The ballot box doesn’t care whether you’re right or wrong; it only cares what you want. Liberal parties will need to come up with more and better strategies for dealing with cultural, as opposed to economic, anxiety. Not because they think it’s right or moral to feel that way, but because it’s a worldview that can still wield power. And a lot of people, even after Brexit, still thought it was basically powerless.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:29 pm

An embedded MP

The Conservative Party’s Tony Clement is taking a bird’s eye view:

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:35 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Calling Michigan for Clinton already?

Based on the numbers currently being reported, Trump is ahead in Michigan. The New York Times gives him a 60 per cent shot (as I type this) of winning the state. And the Detroit Free Press just called Michigan going to… Clinton? Yep.

How do they figure? They say they analyzed about 80 per cent of the precincts and have Clinton in a four-point lead, which is on par with most pre-election polls.

They could be wrong, but lets’ say the Free Press is right and Clinton takes those 16 electoral votes. Then if Pennsylvania falls for Clinton, as the polls predicted, then she might just have barely enough to win the presidency.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:36 pm

From Charlie Gillis

Trump’s electoral army

Late last spring, Nate Cohn, the New York Times election data guru, offered a persuasive explanation of Donald Trump’s success in the primaries and the early campaign. He postulated that America’s sharpest political minds had underestimated the number of white people without college degrees—a demographic we know skews heavily to Trump. The problem is that parties’ demographic models rely heavily on election exit polls that provide an incomplete profile of the electorate. During the 2012 U.S. election, for example, they suggested that white people over 45 and lacking college degrees represented 23 per cent of the voting population; more recent research, based on census numbers and data from individual voter files, pegs their share closer to 30 per cent—a difference of about 10 million people, in a country where about 130 million have been going to the polls.

It’s commonplace to dismiss this group as a declining, near-irrelevant force in U.S. politics. Immigration is changing the face of the country, we’re told; parties and candidates must tailor their messages to the new voting blocs. But remember: these undercounted white voters aren’t just eligible electors. They are people in the habit of voting. What would happen if it came out and voted overwhelmingly for one side?

You may be getting your answer tonight. They make that candidate—however unpalatable he is to minority groups—into a contender. Trump hasn’t won. But his base has carried him a surprisingly long way. It has been, literally, underestimated.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:37 pm

From Jaime Weinman

A Silver lining for a stats nerd

This is already a tough night for the reputations of professional prognosticators, but there’s one whose reputation will be enhanced: Nate Silver, the founder of fivethirtyeight.com and the king of poll aggregation. Most other aggregators gave Trump almost no chance of winning, with only Silver warning that he actually had a good shot (though he still had Clinton as a 65 per cent favourite). Some Democratic-leaning writers thought he was skewing the results in Trump’s favour because he’d been burned by his refusal to believe that Trump could win the nomination. But it turns out that the uncertainty in the polls was real, and if anything he underestimated Trump’s strength. But at least he underestimated him less than his competitors.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:42 pm

Canadian politicians weigh in

NDP MP Nathan Cullen is at the RNC voting party in Cleveland:

“The Republicans in Cleveland are cautiously jubilant—they took Ohio and feel good about Florida.”

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:45 pm

From Sarah Boesveld

Who’s thirsty?

How are everybody’s drinks?

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:51 pm

From Andray Domise

White supremacy gets out the vote

There was a moment in this election campaign when it became clear that Donald Trump didn’t actually need a functioning campaign at all. It was in mid-March, when PBS NewsHour aired a special on Trump voters in the South, and a woman named Grace Tilly made a momentary appearance in the American consciousness. Tilly, a 33-year-old Trump volunteer from Fayetteville, North Carolina, made national headlines when her clearly visible hand tattoos (“88” on one hand, and an Odin’s Cross on the other) were shown to be emblematic of the neo-Nazi movement. Less than a month after Trump refused to condemn public support by David Duke and the Ku Klux Klan, here was proof positive that white nationalists were quietly coalescing behind his brand.

Trump boasted early on to the Republican Jewish Coalition that “I don’t want your money,” and when he secured the Republican Party nomination, went on to speculate he might not even need to run campaign ads. His inability (or perhaps unwillingness) to build a national strategy was the butt of endless thinkpieces commenting on the disastrous and ill-fated nature of his campaign. Polls and conventional wisdom predicted his campaign was, at best, a piece of beautiful performance art illustrating the nadir of humanity’s failure. And yet, news agencies are suddenly confronted with the very real prospect of a Trump victory. What rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Washington to be born?

White nationalism. There is nothing else in American politics quite so capable of stitching together the Christian right, neo-Nazis, multi-billionaires, and the so-called “white working class.” Nothing about Trump’s campaign that could so galvanize his supporters into embracing harassment, racial slurs, and outright violence, other than America’s unreconciled history of white nationalism.

The narrative throughout Trump’s inexorable rise, to this day, has vacillated between mockery and loathing. His sexism and bigotry has, of course, made headlines with every unscripted moment that sets off a social media firestorm. But Trump the politician, with all of his execrable qualities, is almost beside the point. Because if a politician this widely reviled can come this close to winning, we’re not watching a vote on whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton deserve to be President. What we’re watching is a referendum on white nationalism play out in real time.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:57 pm

From Jason Markusoff

Bill Mitchell: The guy who wasn’t supposed to be smug tonight

Those of us who follow Twitter came to love to hate (and mock) Bill Mitchell. Until this year, he was just some executive recruiter from Charlotte, North Carolina. Then he started tweeting anti-scientific boosterish stuff about Donald Trump, a Republican candidate he thought could really shake up the establishment. Conservative Twitter followers began flocking to him—as did bemused liberals. He started a radio show. He kept going, conventional wisdom and actual wisdom be damned. He excelled at cherry-picking the polls he liked, and “un-skewing” their particulars to twist Clinton leads into Trump leads.

“Halloween mask sales have predicted every Presidential winner since 1980. Right now, Trump masks lead Hillary by 30%,” Mitchell wrote on Oct. 21.

“Trump supporters DOMINATE social media. We are the balance to media lies and obfuscation,” he wrote Nov. 1.

“I am hearing reports of Democrats voting Trump from all over,” he wrote this morning.

If he winds up being correct and all the pollsters, Fivethirtyeight whiz kids and election betting markets were wrong, lordy lordy…

Joe Rayment November 8, 201610:58 pm

From David Agren

A dispatch from a (panicked) Mexico

Trump’s strong showing appears to be producing panic in Mexico—the country he has trashed throughout his campaign and threatens to throw into a world of economic hurt with protectionist policies. The Mexican newspaper Reforma is reporting the country’s foreign minister, Claudia Ruiz Massieu, abandoned her “war room” in the foreign relations secretariat for an emergency meeting in Los Pinos, the president’s residence. What Mexico can do at this point is uncertain and good options appear in short supply.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:12 pm

From Jason Markusoff

Why nobody rushed to call Florida

Just before 11 p.m., the Associated Press declared Donald Trump the winner in Florida, a huge boon to his chances of winning. More than 90 per cent of the vote had been in for a while, and he had remained a decent 1.5 percentage points ahead, but the networks and news wires were taking their time.

History explains that. We remember 2000, but in 2012 the networks took four days to declare that state for Barack Obama, too—that’s how close it was then. In that epic Bush v. Gore battle, the networks embarrassed themselves badly. They called it early in the evening for the Democrats, after rosy exit polls. Later in the night, they revoked their projection and made it a too-close-to-call. At 2:16 a.m., Fox News called Florida for Bush, and other networks followed suit within minutes. Later that morning, NBC and other networks called back their checkmark graphic yet again, and the state would remain too close to call until the Supreme Court ruled on recounts and Al Gore conceded on Dec. 13.

“We don’t just have egg on our face,” NBC Tom Brokaw said after the second reversed projection. “We’ve got omelette all over our suits.”

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:13 pm

From The Associated Press

The race divide

Even with his tough talk about Mexican immigrants, Trump held on to roughly the same share of Hispanic voters as Romney had claimed four years ago. Likewise, he was drawing about the same levels of support from black voters as Romney won.

The Republican was drawing about a quarter of Hispanic voters and about less than 1 in 10 black voters according to preliminary results of exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Research.

Clinton did better with Hispanic voters who were naturalized citizens, getting about 8 in 10 of their votes. She got about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters who were born U.S. citizens.

Trump was winning more than half of white voters, who made up 70 per cent of the electorate.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:29 pm

If the Cubs can do it . . .

At lease one U.S. actor is holding out hope


Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:30 pm

From Charlie Gillis

The call of the North

My Canadian-born cousin lives in Wyoming, the reddest of red states. He’s as Dem as they come, and admits he’s scared. “On the other hand,” he adds, “I am getting a lot of marriage proposals tonight.”

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:30 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

A mistake-free finish

Trump has won almost every battleground state, it seems: Florida (according to the Associated Press), North Carolina (according to CNN) and Ohio (according to everyone). All is not lost—yet—for Clinton, but the odds really aren’t good.

Clinton must now have a mistake-free finish, and win every other state she was projected to win by the polls. If Trump wins any of the following states—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan—then it’s over. And at the moment, he leads in all three states. However, if Clinton can pull back in all three states, then win either Nevada and New Hampshire (not guaranteed by any stretch), then it’ll be the most incredibly heart-stopping comeback.

But again, pretty much no room for error.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:31 pm

From Jaime Weinman

Gaffes no longer matter

One thing Trump has proved is how little “gaffes”—the terrible or inappropriate things a candidate may say—can actually hurt. Trump usually tried to avoid apologizing for his comments no matter how badly they seemed to be hurting him, because he believed that apologies actually make things worse. He pointed to the case of the sports commentator Jimmy the Greek, whose career imploded over some racist comments: “Whatever you do, don’t apologize. You never hear me apologize, do you? That’s what killed Jimmy the Greek way back. Remember? He was doing OK ’til he said he was sorry.” Apologizing is seen as a sign of weakness and theoretically turns off people who might have been on your side, while doing nothing to help you with the people who aren’t. And this theory seems to be true.

Just because something doesn’t hurt a politician doesn’t mean it’s morally right. But it seems clear that none of Trump’s comments really hurt him. And success begets imitation, which means we’re going to see a lot more politicians simply refuse to take back comments that get them in trouble. Again, this is a sign of polarization: if there are few persuadable voters, and an election is all about mobilizing your base, then an apology will turn off the base while not persuading anybody. Even before Trump, we were seeing Republican politicians apologize for the act of apologizing for offensive comments. From now on, there may be fewer apologies and a lot more doubling down.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:33 pm

From Jason Markusoff

Our dirty little self-interested secret

In these final days, it might not be liberal bias that leads media writers to secretly hope for a Hillary Clinton victory. (Caution: this is me talking out of personal reflection and theory. I haven’t talked to other journalists about this, at Maclean’s or elsewhere.)

It’s this: we’re exhausted. The 2016 campaign has been the ugliest, nastiest, most hate-fuelled and surprise-loaded election period in memory, and it’s been in a constant state like this since June 2015; hasn’t let up. Were Clinton to win, journalists could have woken up Wednesday to a rather predictable world, and chalked up some policy-minded speculation pieces, cabinet chatter and some navel-gazers on the future of a divided post-Trump Republican party.

Were Trump to win, as now seems likely, journalists wake up Wednesday to a whole new kind of blitz of uncertainty and volatility and a Pandora’s box of questions about global security, the financial markets, America’s place in the world, the fate of Muslims and Latinos, and so much more. And this could go on at this frenetic clip for four years.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:34 pm

From Sarah Boesveld

America, your daughters are watching

As I’d written roughly six hours ago, enthusiasm over the possibility of a woman running the White House for the very first time has been very much alive, but muted—muted by the concern about Donald Trump charging through with his fear mongering and hollow words, and soundclippy assurances that he’ll wave a magic wand and turn the country around.

Now that concern is straight-out fear itself. And that enthusiasm has morphed to a dejected silence.

Women have not had the night of their dreams. What they’ve instead been handed is an ugly reminder that much of America is OK with overlooking allegations from 12 women that the Republican nominee touched them inappropriately or came onto them or was quite willing to brush off anything he didn’t deny as “locker-room talk.” Whether Hillary Clinton miraculously wins this thing or not, that message was sent hours ago, when Trump started plucking up electoral college votes. This is your country, America. Your daughters are watching.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:34 pm

From The Associated Press

Trump picking up momentum with battleground wins

Donald Trump captured crucial victories over Hillary Clinton Tuesday night in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, showing remarkable strength in three of the nation’s most fiercely fought battleground states in an unexpectedly tight race for the presidency.

Clinton carried Virginia, Colorado and California. Her campaign had expected easy victories there, but the states took on new urgency as Trump picked up votes elsewhere. With a handful of other battleground states still undecided, neither candidate had cleared the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.

The uncertainty sent Dow futures and Asian markets tumbling, reflecting investor concern over what a Trump presidency might mean for the economy and trade.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:36 pm

From Aaron Hutchins

Did the primaries predict this?

Based on her travels, the Clinton camp likely expected states like Michigan and Wisconsin would be locks. After all, the polls had her ahead of Trump by more than three points in Michigan, and a very safe six-point lead in Wisconsin. (No wonder she never even set foot in the Badger State since she won the Democratic nomination.)

But perhaps there was a sense of hubris in how she mostly avoided the voters there, especially considering the Democrats in both states voted for Bernie Sanders during the primaries. And Clinton should be well aware of the polling mishaps in Michigan; she lost to Sanders by two points when the polls had her up by 21(!).

In both instances, young people weren’t voting for Clinton. White working-class voters weren’t picking her either. Sure, Sanders went back to to both states in recent weeks to stump on behalf of Clinton, but the enthusiasm from young voters may have been lacking just enough to keep her out of the White House.

Joe Rayment November 8, 201611:50 pm

From Jason Markusoff

Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em

The aggrieved young progressives of America’s largest state have at least one thing to look forward to. California has voted to legalize recreational marijuana, and the state more populous than Canada may create its taxable weed business before Justin Trudeau sets it up here.

State ballot measures are on the table in four other states, as well: it’s too close to call in Maine, the pro-pot side is narrowly ahead in Massachusetts and Nevada, and Arizona is leaning ‘No.’

Recreational pot is already legal in Alaska, Colorado, Washington and Oregon. Soon, a substantial proportion of America will allow recreational toking, including all Pacific Coast states.

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:08 am

From Jaime Weinman

Obamacare and the right side of history

Part of tonight’s larger story may be the overconfidence among Democrats that history was on their side (which it might be, in the long run, but you know what Keynes said about the long run). Another example of that is the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare.” Democrats expected that once the law was entrenched, it would be popular. They assumed this because of history: Social Security and Medicare and many other social programs became popular, and even politicians who opposed them had to pretend otherwise or play it down (like Ronald Reagan playing down his opposition to Medicare).

But the Affordable Care Act has never been very popular, and a lot of people feel they’re being made to pay more, or find the system confusing. The legislation was a terrible drag on Democrats in the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections, and may have hurt them with voters who aren’t poor enough to qualify for Medicaid and aren’t old enough to qualify for Medicare. (Obama got lucky in going up against the one Republican, Mitt Romney, who couldn’t make a case against the law, because it was based on his own Massachusetts health care program.) The decision to pass the legislation despite unified Republican opposition may have been the right decision, despite the political impact. The problem is that the Democrats didn’t seem prepared for it to have this kind of sustained negative impact. Because social programs always become popular. History said so.

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:09 am

From Aaron Hutchins

What happens if they tie?

In the race for the 270 electoral votes to become president, it’s always possible—however unlikely—that Trump and Clinton finish in a tie: 269-269 each. For example, if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada, while Trump wins Wisconsin (which Fox has already called in his favour), then depending on where certain congressional districts lie, it could happen.

So who wins under that scenario? The national popular vote winner? Nope.

In the event of tie, the U.S. Constitution (Article II, Section I) says that the House of Representatives would choose the president by ballot. And considering the Republicans own a majority in the House, however tepid some of their support for their Republican presidential nominee might be, a tie likely means Trump wins the White House.

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:11 am

From earlier tonight: Supporters of Hillary Clinton react to a state being called for Donald Trump as they watch U.S. election returns at a viewing party organized by Democrats Abroad at the Pinche Gringo BBQ in Mexico City, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:18 am

Canadian politicians weigh in

Conservative MP Tony Clement is in Vermont for election night:

“Once again the political and media elites who ignored real suffering in America’s hinterland have received an unexpected verdict. Donald Trump tapped into real pain and anguish of people who wanted to “drain the swamp” in Washington.

This is a worldwide trend. Brexit was part of this and there are other examples.

After an historic battle Trump as an agent of change is now sharing power with a Republican Congress. We can only hope they can do the job for all Americans and the world.”

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:19 am

From Jason Markusoff

The Ku Klux Klan: an endorsement that (wretch) mattered

There was a historic scarcity of newspaper editorial boards that urged readers to vote for Trump. The Las Vegas Review-Journal was one, owned by pro-Trump casino mogul Sheldon Adelson. Another paper in Trump-friendly north Florida did the same, but many other traditionally Republican papers couldn’t bring themselves to endorse him, including the Houston Chronicle, the Cincinnati Enquirer, Utah’s Deseret News, and the Arizona Republic.

Most Americans had never heard of The Crusader before it wrote a front-page article titled “Make America Great Again.” It’s a top newspaper of the Ku Klux Klan, the white supremacist organization that, yes, still exists. Trump’s campaign quickly disavowed the organization and its screed.

But these are among the few public endorsers of Donald Trump, the few writers not afraid to speak of his support. We can no longer look away. We need to understand this.

With that in mind, here’s an excerpt from it:

While Trump wants to make America great again, we have to ask ourselves: “What made America great in the first place?” The short answer to that is simple: America was great not because of what our forefathers did, but because of who our forefathers were. America was founded as a White Christian Republic. And as a White Christian Republic it became great. … I am afraid most conservatives (including Trump) have no understanding of this racial time bomb that is ticking. We are living among people who have been disconnected from the spirit, values morals and faith of our forefathers… We are in that day spoken of by the prophet Malachi when it tells us that in this final day as White Genocide seems to be closing its jaws, upon our people forever that God will send forth his ministry that will close the disconnection, and will strengthen those who have become “orphaned.”

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:21 am

From Jason Markusoff

My fiancée asks

“Can we watch Orange is the New Black? It’s way less depressing.”

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:27 am

From Charlie Gillis

Let’s hide behind reason

Brace, now, for the onslaught of analysis considering why such a wide swath of middle America would hand over the White House (and nuclear codes) to a crass narcissist facing multiple allegations of sexual assault. This is about disruption, we’ll hear. The dispossessed and disenfranchised are kicking the blocks out—and who cares if the house crashes down. It’s happened in the U.K. with Brexit. It’s happened in the U.S. Who’s to say where it will strike next. Germany? The Netherlands? Canada?

This is, of course, a rationalist’s attempt to find comfort. The ills of income disparity, class differences and under-employment, after all, sound like solvable problems. Trump is a symptom, by this thinking, and not a cure. “This is a primal scream on the part of a lot of voters who are disenchanted with the status quo,” veteran Democratic operative David Axelrod just said on TV. Sounds like a great, new project for the Davos-going crowd, doesn’t it? We’ve heard your screams, and we’re going to have a summit in Stockholm to talk about them.

And I guess we’ll swallow it—for now. Not because we’re credulous, or because we have faith in the problem-solving capability of the global elite, but because the alternative is too awful to contemplate, namely, that a great many Americans want a leader given to crudity, tax-dodging, race-baiting, incitement of violence against his political opponents and—to hear him tell it—sexually grabbing women whenever he feels like it. If Americans do, in fact, see Donald Trump as the cure, we’re in real trouble.

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:29 am

From Sadiya Ansari

The terrifying divisiveness of Trump

The last U.S. census showed that 37.9 percent of Americans were visible minorities. And that population is growing. It’s unimaginable what those Americans must be feeling tonight as half of the country has voted for a candidate who labelled Mexicans rapists, called for a ban on Muslims in the country and hasn’t done anything to distance himself from the white supremacists who support him.

Trump’s reaction to his supporters beating an African-American protester at a rally last year is more than just alarming, saying maybe the man deserved to be “should have been roughed up” since what the protester did—which was chant “Black Lives Matter”—was “absolutely disgusting.” Knowing Trump was allowed to become the Republican candidate and have a national stage to play out divisive games for political gain was harmful enough—knowing half the country believes what he does is downright scary.

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:36 am

From earlier tonight: Carol Minor, centre, and other Donald Trump supporters cheer during the election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown on Tuesday. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:53 am

Hamilton stays put

Lin-Manuel Miranda asked if he’s moving to Canada


Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:54 am

From Aaron Hutchins

Gary Johnson is the new Ralph Nader

For the past month, Al Gore has been reminding Florida voters that every vote counts. “Trust me on this,” he’d say. After all, it wasn’t all that long ago that Gore was denied his own election victory by the thinnest of margins in Florida—and many were quick to blame the left-wing third-party candidate Ralph Nader for siphoning off enough votes to open the White House doors to George W. Bush.

Sixteen years later, it may have happened again. With 99 per cent of precincts filing, according to New York Times numbers, Trump has 4,579,612 votes. Clinton finished one point behind, with 4,447,145 votes. That’s about 133,000 votes short of a Clinton win—and one that would guarantee her the Oval Office.

So what did the third party candidates do? Libertarian Gary Johnson, whose running mate, Bill Weld, was warning everyone who would listen about a Trump presidency, has amassed 203,643 votes. Green Party leader Jill Stein scored 63,204. Another 25,000 votes went to someone Americans have never heard of.

That’s a total of 291,847 votes that went to neither Clinton nor Trump.

Now, it’d be wrong to assume that under a strict two-party system that Clinton would get all of those votes, and it’s also possible many people would have stayed home if given the choice between Clinton and Trump.

But if Clinton took of three-quarters of these third-party votes, under the assumption they all voted either Republican or Democrat, then America would have its first female president. Trust me on this.

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:55 am

From Jason Markusoff

Trumpworld Winners and Losers, International edition

Who benefits, and who doesn’t, from a Trump win…

Winners

Russia: Vladimir Putin will be the happiest world leader tonight. He’s wanted a weaker America and a persuadable U.S. president who doesn’t mind Putin’s territorial expansion ambitions. Lucky him.

China: Trump wants to slap tariffs on the country, and he could severely wound their export market. But the decline of American influence and predictability helps the leverage of this rising global megapower. And the country now has a potent message to its Communist subjects about how screwed-up democracy is.

North Korea: Trump wants to make other countries pay more for their own defence. This other nation with a madman in charge now may have a bit more leeway.

Losers

Mexico: They’re going to pay for the wall — how, exactly? Why? His aggressive revision or rejection of NAFTA will scrape away years of economic development. The peso has nosedived any time Trump was looking good in the campaign.

Canada: Yeah, we potentially get Keystone XL, but we will face a vastly different trading partner, a more closed security perimeter and a leader that wholly discards the idea of climate change. Expect articles aplenty on the anti-Trudeau/anti-Trump.

Lebanon and Turkey: Who knows what’s going to happen in Syria, but its refugee crisis mainly affects neighbouring states. Not many Syrians have come to United States or were going to, but here is a global political leader declaring the stateless millions as terrorists-in-waiting.

Lithuania, Ukraine, Estonia: the Baltic states that Trump seems willing to make fend for themselves. (See Putin’s happiness, above)

Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Gulf states: Trump will lean on them to handle the Syria mess, somehow.

Germany and the European Union: so much for climate change action or NATO consensus

Maldives, Palau, other oceanic countries threatened by rising sea levels: so much for climate change action.

Cuba: Trump deplores the recent rolling back of sanctions under Obama

Most of the world, really: Global history abhors uncertainty, and likes trade. Oh well.

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:56 am

From The Associated Press

Another familiar last name is heading to Washington

Democrat Jimmy Panetta has won an open seat in California representing the same region once served by his father. Leon Panetta had a long career in Washington as congressman, budget director, White House chief of staff, CIA director and defence secretary.

Earlier Tuesday, Republican Liz Cheney of Wyoming won her father’s old House seat. She’s the eldest daughter of former Vice-President Dick Cheney.

Joe Rayment November 9, 201612:57 am

Canadian politicians weigh in

Sheila Copps, Canada’s first woman deputy prime minister, is watching the results while on vacation in Mexico.


Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:11 am

From Aaron Hutchins

Fresh start

“Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.”

For months, this editor’s note has appeared at the bottom of every Huffington Post article with reference to Trump. Until today.

The news outlet will now pull the note from its future stories on Trump, according to an internal memo obtained by Politico. A fresh start, so to speak.

But it doesn’t change the facts, does it?

Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:14 am

Canadian politicians weigh in

Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:16 am

From Jason Markusoff

Some Americans can immigrate lickety-split (though not to Canada)

A few days ago, I wrote about how many or most Trump-wary Americans would fail to meet Canada’s immigration requirements. But there is an easy way out of the United States for some 5.3 million U.S. residents.

Jewish Americans, or any Jews around the world, are entitled to immigrate to Israel and become citizens, under Israel’s Law of Return. Those millions of U.S. Jews voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton, according to exit polls—the 71%-24% Democrat-Republican margin among Jewish voters is the biggest since the 1996 Bill Clinton landslide.

Keep in mind how outspoken the KKK and the anti-Semitic Alt-right have been toward journalists, and how Trump spoke of a global banking and media conspiracy, and his final campaign ad overlaid that message with images of hedge fund trader George Soros, Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, all Jewish-Americans.

Journalist Yair Rosenberg said a sibling raised the idea of the move Jews call “aliyah” on Twitter:

Israel, of course, has its own racial issues and demagoguery. But many Jewish Americans might be willing to mull drastic options if they, like Muslims and Mexicans, no longer feel their national government has their back.

Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:27 am

Ballad of the Baldwin Brothers

U.S. acting family took different sides during the election—and fought it out over Twitter. Tonight they have stayed in their corners . . . so far.


Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:38 am

From Jason Markusoff

American voters did beat one birther known for brutal anti-immigrant sentiment

In Arizona’s massive Maricopa County (read: Phoenix area), Sheriff Joe Arpaio was turfed Tuesday after six straight terms. He was known for workplace raids looking for undocumented immigrants, making county jail inmates wear pink underwear and live in tent city, and has been sued and found liable for racial profiling. He faces criminal contempt charges later this year. Yet the Arizona county’s voters liked his tough approach, and he was a prominent backer of Trump. Arpaio even tried getting his deputies to investigate Barack Obama’s actual birthplace, in line with Donald Trump.

Now he’s gone. I was down in Arizona earlier this year, and wrote about the voter mobilization of Latino voters against Arpaio and Trump:

“We don’t have to imagine a country with a Trump presidency because we already have Arpaio. You just have to look at Arizona,” says Maria Castro, an organizer for Bazta Arpaio—a blend of the Spanish word basta (enough) with AZ, the state’s abbreviation. It’s personal for Castro, 22. She recalls her high school days, when she’d text friends to steer clear of a sheriff’s checkpoint. Her mother, an undocumented immigrant, is afraid to drive, lest an officer pull her over and demand to see papers she doesn’t have.

Berta Rita, an office cleaner and mother of five, snuck across the border in 1992, with her eldest child. Two years ago, officers scanned her husband’s construction workplace for undocumented labourers. He lost his job. Rita often encounters residents who don’t vote, whether they don’t know how to or don’t believe in it. She lacks any path to citizenship under current laws; she wishes she could choose whether or not to vote.


“People say the old guy has always been there. ‘We’re not going to win. It doesn’t matter if we vote,’ ” Rita tells Maclean’s, before the night’s canvass. Her reply: “That’s precisely why we don’t win: Because you don’t vote.”

This time, it looks like they voted. Latinos couldn’t topple Trump in the historically red state, but they did vanquish the sheriff who posed a clear and present danger to their liberty and pursuit of happiness.

Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:40 am

From Jason Markusoff

American voters did beat one birther known for brutal anti-immigrant sentiment

In Arizona’s massive Maricopa County (read: Phoenix area), Sheriff Joe Arpaio was turfed Tuesday after six straight terms. He was known for workplace raids looking for undocumented immigrants, making county jail inmates wear pink underwear and live in tent city, and has been sued and found liable for racial profiling. He faces criminal contempt charges later this year. Yet the Arizona county’s voters liked his tough approach, and he was a prominent backer of Trump. Arpaio even tried getting his deputies to investigate Barack Obama’s actual birthplace, in line with Donald Trump.

Now he’s gone. I was down in Arizona earlier this year, and wrote about the voter mobilization of Latino voters against Arpaio and Trump:

“We don’t have to imagine a country with a Trump presidency because we already have Arpaio. You just have to look at Arizona,” says Maria Castro, an organizer for Bazta Arpaio—a blend of the Spanish word basta (enough) with AZ, the state’s abbreviation. It’s personal for Castro, 22. She recalls her high school days, when she’d text friends to steer clear of a sheriff’s checkpoint. Her mother, an undocumented immigrant, is afraid to drive, lest an officer pull her over and demand to see papers she doesn’t have.

Berta Rita, an office cleaner and mother of five, snuck across the border in 1992, with her eldest child. Two years ago, officers scanned her husband’s construction workplace for undocumented labourers. He lost his job. Rita often encounters residents who don’t vote, whether they don’t know how to or don’t believe in it. She lacks any path to citizenship under current laws; she wishes she could choose whether or not to vote.


“People say the old guy has always been there. ‘We’re not going to win. It doesn’t matter if we vote,’ ” Rita tells Maclean’s, before the night’s canvass. Her reply: “That’s precisely why we don’t win: Because you don’t vote.”

This time, it looks like they voted. Latinos couldn’t topple Trump in the historically red state, but they did vanquish the sheriff who posed a clear and present danger to their liberty and pursuit of happiness.

Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:40 am

From Sarah Boesveld

‘I will accept the results of the election…if I win.’

This was the big news story after the third presidential debate which, most agreed, Donald Trump badly lost. Hillary Clinton won that debate by letting Trump hang himself and by emerging the adult, with some very good zingers about being in the Situation Room taking down Osama bin Laden while Trump was hosting The Apprentice.

Also during that very telling debate, moderated by Fox News, Trump doubled down on his anti-abortion stance and made bizarre statements about “ripping” an unborn nine-month developed fetus from the womb. He said he would support the rights of gun owners unequivocally. He said he would send Clinton to jail over her “email scandal,” which the FBI cleared her from on Sunday.

You’ve heard all this before. You likely watched the debate yourself. But as we—the bleary-eyed diehards in these early hours of Wednesday—keep an eye on these election results, I just wanted to remind you of that. The “lock her up” mantra hollered at Trump rallies, and echoed as a promise during that third debate, could actually become an action. Don’t ask me how, legally, he’d be able to do that. But he’ll be in charge.

We are still waiting for someone to call this thing already. But I think we know how it’s gonna go. Trump will accept the results of this election. Because he is more than very, very likely going to win.

Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:41 am

From The Associated Press

Angry votes for change

Four in 10 voters said they were hungry for change, and those voters overwhelmingly favoured Republican Donald Trump. Smaller voting blocs who were seeking a candidate with good judgment, experience or who cared about them favoured Hillary Clinton.

Nearly 7 in 10 voters said they were unhappy with the way the government is working, including a quarter who said they were outright angry, according to preliminary results of exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Research.

Three-fourths of those angry voters backed Trump. Six in 10 voters said the country is on the wrong track.

Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:51 am

From Jason Markusoff

The President Tele-Prompter theory

Can a President Trump guy regress to the mean, and actually become a diplomat on the world stage, let reality temper his agenda, and not make the Oval Office the global capital of bombast?

After all, he’s often been able to stick to his prepared speeches on the prompter. Well, sometimes.

I don’t know. A guy like Trump was never given a chance to win the Republican primary until that guy began actually winning. As he became the official nominee, he promised he would become so presidential we’d be bored of him, but Trump was wholly averse to the political norms of decency, diplomacy, reasonable promises and high-mindedness.

And now? He has a globe-sized amount of responsibility heaped onto his plate, but also has a commensurate amount of power. And the other political houses are on his side too, and many senators and congressmen likely owe their victories to his success.

What elements will force him to adhere to political norms and political sanity that shouldn’t have already accomplished that by now?

Joe Rayment November 9, 20161:58 am

From earlier: A large crowd of “Never Trump” supporters gather in Lincoln bar in downtown Washington, D.C. to watch how the election polls unfold. (Photo by Keith Lane)

Joe Rayment November 9, 20162:08 am

From Sarah Boesveld

Goodnight

And good Christ—Donald Trump only lost white, college-educated women by six percent of the vote, says Jake Tapper on CNN right now. The gender gap isn’t as large as the pundits thought. He said what in a locker room?

Thought, before I go to bed, because unless the Rust Belt sorts its self out momentarily, I would give you an update on the other women I’d planned to keep an eye on during this race: Denise Juneau, a Democrat from Montana, did not become the first Native American woman elected to Congress. But Catherine Cortez Masto, whose grandfather was a Mexican immigrant to the U.S., did indeed become the country’s first Latina Senator, representing Nevada. I’m not sure what happened to Misty Plowright and Misty Snow—the first trans woman running for federal office—but last I checked, Misty Snow was trailing on Republican Senate incumbent Mike Lee in Utah. Unofficial results suggest she lost.

See you in the morning. A very different morning than others—the world will have changed.

Joe Rayment November 9, 20162:08 am

From David Agren

Mexico frets in front of the world

Mexico’s central bank and finance ministry have called an early morning press conference as the peso plunges to record lows. The peso, often a proxy other investor’s confidence in emerging markets and, lately, Trump’s proximity to power, has lost 12 per cent of its value since early returns showed Trump winning key states such as Florida.

What the Mexican government and central bank can do remains uncertain. Mexico had been somewhat stable in its macroeconomic indicators ­ a far cry from the peso crisis of the 1990s. But a Trump presidency and his promises to rip up NAFTA and build a border wall are unprecedented.

Joe Rayment November 9, 20162:15 am

From Jason Markusoff

A world reacts

Reaction pours in from around the world.

Mexico, you see below with David Agren’s report of an early morning press conference about the peso meltdown.

South Korea: “The presidential office Cheong Wa Dae will convene a session of the National Security Council on Wednesday afternoon to discuss the potential impact of the U.S. presidential election, officials here said,” a Korean news agency reports.

Japan: “Gov’t to take action if speculative forex (foreign exchange) moves continue: official,” Kyodo News says.

France: The hard-right, anti-immigrant National Front leader gets out ahead of everybody with congratulations for a new president: “Félicitations au nouveau président des Etats-Unis Donald Trump et au peuple américain, libre!” she tweeted.

Joe Rayment November 9, 20162:31 am

From Jason Markusoff

Clinton’s not talking yet

John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, said from the rally stage that the losing Democratic candidate will not speak to the crowd in Javits Center in New York, and said supporters should go home. They’re still counting votes, and it’s still close, said the man made a household name thanks to his WikiLeaks-leaked emails.

No network or major news outlet had called the election yet, though it was abundantly clear Donald Trump would win. This led to pro-Trump talking heads on CNN pushing the “will he concede or not?” stuff right back in Democrats’ faces.

There was a gracious way to do this, as hard as it would have been for Clinton. Wait another half-hour or so for everybody to declare a winner, help bring some healing and faith to a very anxious half of America, and don’t risk Donald Trump lording it over you. This is a defeat, a contingency Clinton should have prepared for. Podesta tried to save some face; should have pledged she would speak in the morning, as this clearly isn’t 2000 Bush-Gore. It would be as heart-breaking for Democrats to hear her as it would be for Clinton to address them, but it would have made facing this brave new normal a bit easier for United States and the world.

There is precedence for this: John Kerry conceded the next day in 2004. And in 2000, both Al Gore and George W. Bush sent their campaign chairman to address crowds in pre-dawn speeches that the fight wasn’t yet over.

Joe Rayment November 9, 20162:34 am

Donald Trump wins

Associated Press is calling the election for Donald Trump

Joe Rayment November 9, 20162:47 am

From Jason Markusoff

Presidents who have never held political office

It’s happened five times before in U.S. history!

Dwight Eisenhower (1952) was a five-star general.

Herbert Hoover (1928) was a secretary of commerce to two presidents.

William Taft (1908) was Teddy Roosevelt’s secretary of war.

Ulysses S. Grant (1868) was a Union commanding general in the Civil War.

Zachary Taylor (1848) was a general in the American-Mexican war.

This means that while there is precedent for the United States to elect a president who has never been elected to anything before, at least these five other men had high-level experience dealing with presidents and cabinet secretaries and federal government masters. The closest Trump can come to any of that is negotiations with the General Services Administration for a deal to turn a former U.S. post office into a Trump hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue.

Nick Taylor-Vaisey November 9, 20164:15 am

From Jason Markusoff:

Trump’s victory speech: the good, the bad, the weird and the ugly

Good:

– He gave credit and congratulations to Hillary Clinton. A man who said he’d hire a special prosecutor to hound her was nice to her, as he often is when somebody is nice to him first, as one imagines Clinton was in her concession phone call.

– He preached unity: “It’s time to come together as one united people. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans and this is so important to me.” But this isn’t just in what he said, but what he didn’t say. He didn’t say a word about the wall or illegal immigrants, cornerstones of this campaign speech and vision for America.

– He was humble, for Donald Trump. Thanked his team and faily, and said of others on both sides of the aisle: “I’m reaching out to you for your guidance and your help.”

– He didn’t talk about trade, either, as he mentioned the world stage.

– He stayed largely on the Tele-prompter!

Bad:

– While the outcome has several potentially bad implications, he didn’t scream them from the rooftops like he had in the campaign. This could have been a ton worse.

– A flash of prickliness on the world stage: “We will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us.”

–Bombastic, improbable promises: doubling United States growth; fixing deep-rooted, systemic problems in “inner cities”; creating second-to-none airports, highways, schools (while dramatically slashing taxes). “Every single American will have the opportunity to realize his or her fullest potential.” At least he didn’t use his frequent stump-speech addendum: “and it will be so easy.”

Weird:

– Bluntly measuring Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus by the victory, and comparing him to a horse in so doing: “We can’t call you a superstar, Reince, unless you win. It’s like Secretariat.”

– The lack of emotion when talking about his late parents. It was very detached, especially for a father who helped him launch his business empire. “I want to thank my parents who are looking down. Great people.” It was like a boss thanking workers he hardly knew

– He lumped the thank-you for his wife Melania into a list of his children, and even mentioned her after Don Jr., his eldest. The president-elect is much older than his third wife, but that felt like infantilizing her. Nothing even remotely approaching “the love of my life” or anything.

Ugly:

– Somebody from the crowd audibly yelled: “Kill Obama!” or something like that. There was such hatred and intolerance that his campaign gave a platform to. If he’s serious about those good parts of his speech, he’ll commit much of his presidential energy to stamping out this overgrown cancer on the body politic.

Nick Taylor-Vaisey November 9, 20164:18 am

From Jason Markusoff

Signing off

There will be so much to cover by the time Wednesday’s sun rises. A concession speech by the women who will not actually break that glass ceiling; a major market sell-off; global jitters; cabinet speculation; an exhaustive scouring of Trump’s policy pledges and wondering how many were just bombast and how many can actually be achieved without disaster; and so much reckoning about what this says about the America that so many people greatly misunderstood.

But now that it’s over, time to call it a night. Thanks all for following along. Macleans.ca will have so much more to write in coming weeks and nights.

To loosely quote Robert Frost:

And miles to go before we sleep,
And four years to go before we sleep

Nick Taylor-Vaisey November 9, 20164:19 am

From Jason Markusoff

Trump’s victory speech: the good, the bad, the weird and the ugly

Good:

– He gave credit and congratulations to Hillary Clinton. A man who said he’d hire a special prosecutor to hound her was nice to her, as he often is when somebody is nice to him first, as one imagines Clinton was in her concession phone call.

– He preached unity: “It’s time to come together as one united people. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans and this is so important to me.” But this isn’t just in what he said, but what he didn’t say. He didn’t say a word about the wall or illegal immigrants, cornerstones of this campaign speech and vision for America.

– He was humble, for Donald Trump. Thanked his team and faily, and said of others on both sides of the aisle: “I’m reaching out to you for your guidance and your help.”

– He didn’t talk about trade, either, as he mentioned the world stage.

– He stayed largely on the Tele-prompter!

Bad:

– While the outcome has several potentially bad implications, he didn’t scream them from the rooftops like he had in the campaign. This could have been a ton worse.

– A flash of prickliness on the world stage: “We will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us.”

–Bombastic, improbable promises: doubling United States growth; fixing deep-rooted, systemic problems in “inner cities”; creating second-to-none airports, highways, schools (while dramatically slashing taxes). “Every single American will have the opportunity to realize his or her fullest potential.” At least he didn’t use his frequent stump-speech addendum: “and it will be so easy.”

Weird:

– Bluntly measuring Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus by the victory, and comparing him to a horse in so doing: “We can’t call you a superstar, Reince, unless you win. It’s like Secretariat.”

– The lack of emotion when talking about his late parents. It was very detached, especially for a father who helped him launch his business empire. “I want to thank my parents who are looking down. Great people.” It was like a boss thanking workers he hardly knew

– He lumped the thank-you for his wife Melania into a list of his children, and even mentioned her after Don Jr., his eldest. The president-elect is much older than his third wife, but that felt like infantilizing her. Nothing even remotely approaching “the love of my life” or anything.

Ugly:

– Somebody from the crowd audibly yelled: “Kill Obama!” or something like that. There was such hatred and intolerance that his campaign gave a platform to. If he’s serious about those good parts of his speech, he’ll commit much of his presidential energy to stamping out this overgrown cancer on the body politic.


 

U.S. presidential election 2016: Live results, news and analysis

  1. And the last edition of the Gong Show begins ….

    • Much has been said about the ability of Donald Trump to tap into the visceral undercurrent of hostilities and emotions that are so prevalent in the USA.
      But little has been said about the mindset of conservative Americans and their inability to stray from the Republican Party no matter who is their candidate for President (or any other political office).
      What makes this so interesting is that Canada is not only geographically close to the USA, but the Conservative Party of Canada is also linked ideologically to the GOP and conservative Canadians are almost kissing cousins of their American counterparts. This can be seen in the political landscape of Canada, particularly in Alberta (until the last provincial election).
      Conservative people in Canada seem to treat their political affiliations as they do their religions. In some cases, it would be easier to change the spots of a leopard. This was clearly seen in the past 10 years, where conservative Canadians gave their full support the Harper even as he ran roughshod over political norms, parliament and our form of democracy. While he was not as outlandish as Trump (and perhaps Rob Ford) he did not warrant the endearing support of his base if voters looked not at what he said but rather at what he did.
      Those Canadians who are not conservative in their outlook seem to be more malleable.
      It would be interesting to do a psychological study of conservative and non-conservative Canadians and see not only their innermost beliefs but also their ability (or inability) to change and their inclination to accept or even consider new ideas.

      • What you just spewed is incorrect and ridiculous in the extreme. There are some far right wing conservatives as there are some far left wing liberal types in Canada but the majority of Canadians who vote conservative federally are central and are not “kissing cousins” of the GOP. Given that the city of Calgary has a Arabic muslim mayor who is in his 40’s and ran an election he termed as “purple reign”, it is pretty difficult for one to make an argument that Calgarians which typically vote overwhelmingly federally conservative, are kissing cousins with the American GOP. We are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. There is no equivalency of the GOP in Canada on any large scale. The federal conservative party accepted gay marriage as part of its official platform. Harper said under his mandate, he would never raise the issue of abortion and he did not. Likening the entire conservative movement in Canada to the GOP, is like us saying left wing Canadians are anti-Vaxers and against GMO’s. It is true that some are but it is hardly typical of all of those who vote left in the country. Also, I would challenge your suggestion that the left are any more malleable in their outlook than conservatives. Alberta might have kept a long tradition of provincial PC governments but they had no problem with turfing premiers who spent their money foolishly on personal expenses and those who made poor decisions on behalf of the province. Meanwhile, Ontario is in major debt and does not seem inclined to rid themselves of what appears to be a less than competent Liberal premier. Alberta, in fact was willing to go completely opposite and voted NDP in the last provincial election…after 40 plus years of PC rule so where is the lack of malleability? Meanwhile, I challenge you to show us how Justin Trudeau differs so much from Harper. He has kept many of Harper’s policies. He has broken many promises when it has come to vetrans and funding for First Nations, especially when it comes to education funding and land deals. He is sinking us so far in debt with nothing to show for it and today it is revealed he is ringing up personal expense accounts that include large booze bills for himself his entourage and the parliamentary press core. He actually attempted to limit debate in parliament and he refused to renegotiate the physician assisted suicide bill when the senate he appointed sent it back. Yet, you find nothing troubling about him? Perhaps you should examine your own partisanship and lack of malleability when it comes to honestly assessing who is running roughshod over democracy. It isn’t easy to be honest when one has voted for a dud but we did it in Alberta with Allison Redford. We cons can admit when we made a mistake and she was ours and we asked her to resign.
        As an aside….we are not religious. In that, we also differ from the US Republicans. I personally am pro-choice and pro-gay marriage and pro legalized cannabis.

        • Gage,
          Truer words were never spoken. Yo saved me a lot of effort addressing Dennis’ hogwash before I had to.

          • Exactly. Canadian Conservatives make American Liberals look like American Conservatives. Kraminator can do what his name suggests and kram it.

          • *sorry, I meant Denis, not Kraminator. Denis can still Kram his comment though.

  2. What’s uncertain? The US will still be there tomorrow and Canada is still in a great position to deal with it. We can never guarantee anything in an American election – some of the ‘best’ candidates have turned out to be duds Canada-wise, and some of the real ‘threats’ turned out not too bad at all. What Canadians need to do is shut up and start thinking.

    Let’s face it when the US elected Obama the world thought a new Camelot was in train. His administration proved to one of the least accomplished and most destructive – for Canada and other places on earth than any that have come down the pike in decades. We’ll still be living with the effects of him for some time before the effects of Trump are noticed.

  3. Despite your very best efforts Maclean’s you lefties must literally be wetting yourselves with results so far!

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