The politics of polling
The latest monthly polling averages from threehundredeight.com.
Both the Conservatives and New Democrats slip a little nationally. The Conservatives take a lead in British Columbia and maintain leads in Alberta, the Prairies and Ontario. The NDP leads
Only two national polls in August, but the Conservatives gain a slight advantage.
A year ago, the Conservatives went into the fall with a five-point advantage. Two years ago, the
Peter Loewen considers the recent failures of political polling.
The problem is not with the first part. Pollsters have developed very clever ways to obtain people’s honest opinions. They can
A slight tightening in the national numbers for July.
By region, it’s a tie in the Prairies, while the NDP leads by six in British Columbia and the Conservatives lead
A review of survey results from across Canada
Ekos asks what should happen if a minority government is defeated soon after the next election.
The EKOS-iPolitics survey finds two-in-five Canadians – 43 per cent – think the governor
Alice Funke challenges the seat projection phenomenon.
The inherent bias in seat prediction methodologies to favour previous election results means they tend to overly favour parties set to lose seats,
Michael Veall cautions against reading too much into sudden poll changes.
So even if a party is up say 3.5 percentage points comparing a new poll with a previous poll,
In a pair of stories, Joan Bryden effectively questions the basis for 85% of political discussion in popular media.
There’s broad consensus among pollsters that proliferating political polls suffer from
Nearly half believe in aliens and want scientists to find them
Bruce Anderson contemplates Michael Ignatieff’s predicament.
More fundamentally, he hasn’t yet developed clusters of voters who see him as “their guy.” I’m talking about groups of voters with common interests:
“Perspective” in Ottawa generally means an ability to remember what happened two weeks ago and, alas, Goat Boy was passed over when the television networks were last hiring. So here