Could Superstorm Sandy cost Obama the popular vote?

There’s markedly less incentive than usual for Obama voters in deep-blue states to make it to the polling station


(Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo)

Jeff Greenfield speculates that the U.S. election could result in a replay of 2000 — where one candidates wins the popular vote and other takes the presidency thanks to winning enough swing states to rack up sufficient electoral college votes. The superstorm has affected coastal states, like New York and New Jersey, where a reduction in voting next Tuesday could depress Democratic turnout:

Now consider where these voters are: overwhelmingly, they’re in states where Obama is all but certain to win, and with huge pluralities. (The latest poll out of New York gives the President a 61-35 advantage over Mitt Romney, which translates to a 2-million-vote plurality.)

This enormous lead, combined with the post-storm burdens, suggests that there’s markedly less incentive than usual for Obama voters in deep-blue states to vote.

The likely result? An increased chance that Obama will lose the national popular vote to Romney, and thus an increased chance that we’ll see, as we did in 2000, a split between the popular vote and the Electoral College tally that in fact decides the presidency.

Should Obama win the election this way, it would be historic: We’ve never had an incumbent president returned to office while losing the popular vote. (Gerald Ford came close; despite losing the popular vote by 1.7 million votes, a shift of barely 11,000 votes in Ohio and Hawaii would have kept him in the White House).

Meanwhile, New Jersey’s Republican governor, Chris Chritstie, today praised the president for his handling of disaster response. From Politico:

“I spoke to the president three times yesterday,” Christie said on CNN’s “Starting Point.” “He has been incredibly supportive and helpful to our state and not once did he bring up the election. So if he’s not bringing it up, you can be sure that people in New Jersey are not worried about that primarily if one of the guys running isn’t.”

On “Fox and Friends,” Christie bristled at the mere mention of presidential politics when asked if Romney would come and tour damaged areas.

“I have no idea, nor am I the least bit concerned or interested,” Christie said. “I’ve got a job to do here in New Jersey that’s much bigger than presidential politics, and I could care less about any of that stuff. I have a job to do. I’ve got 2.4 million people out of power. I’ve got devastation on the Shore. I’ve got floods in the northern part of my state. If you think right now I give a damn about presidential politics, then you don’t know me.”

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Could Superstorm Sandy cost Obama the popular vote?

  1. Christie 2016 : )

    • Chris or Huntsman….but I think Jeb already has dibs.

      On edit….however, the Repubs have to get rid of the kooks or they’re dead.

      • Ugh, I hope not, a Bush name is tainted now IMO. I think it could be a Christie/Rubio combo.

        • Repubs are in such a mess policy-wise right now, I dont think theyll see the Bush name as tainted.

          • Yup, it wouldn’t surprise me.

  2. The Hurricane has nothing to do with the election.

    The flooding is from the looney left wetting their pants.

    • I think you need some remedial schooling – that’s not how weather works.

      • People will put on their hip waders to get through the left wing shitstorm…

  3. The polls suggest that Obama is already on track to lose the popular vote regardless of Sandy: National Polls Oct. 30.

    I think we can credit that to a combination of Superstorms Obamacare, Stimulus, and Benghazi.
    Could still change of course.

  4. It’s hard to say whether the storm will have an impact, but I suspect it won’t. Not just because most states severaly impacted are heavily Democratic, but also because a storm can have both a positive and a negative impact on a president, depending upon how the response is received, whether the public rallies around a president or assigns blame, and so on.
    I do think it’s been sickening that the Democrats have tried to use the storm to their advantage by making the absurd claim the Republicans do not support disaster relief.

    • Jeb Bush had no business letting that hurricane get past Florida either.

      You can clearly see how the chemtrails from Katrina generated by that secret weather machine in Cheney’s basement pushed those airplanes into the WTC with the innocent terrorists kidnapped by Richard Nixon’s alien clone from the Roswell crash while Ronald Reagan planted the thermite explosives in black helicopters during area 51 time travel experiments filming Bed Time for Bonzo with the help of Romney’s father…

      “The Twoof is out there on the X-Files”