Discussing Romney’s bad week(s)


In our CBC discussion yesterday, Paul Brandus saw slightly more gloom and doom for Mitt Romney than I did. If the election were held today, polls suggest Obama would win. But it’s still a very close race — albeit one where Romney faces the added obstacle of having to win over more swing states than does Obama.

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Discussing Romney’s bad week(s)

  1. “If the election were held today, polls suggest Obama would win.”

    Campaign Spot ~ Republican pollster John McLaughlin:

    “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR [Interactive Voice Response] polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are ‘not enthusiastic’ to vote or non-voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30 percent range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead.

    The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. We’ll see a lot more of this. Then there’s the debate between calling off a random-digit dial of phone exchanges vs. a known sample of actual registered voters. Most polls favoring Obama are random and not off the actual voter list. That’s too expensive” for some pollsters.

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