Hello from Calgary - Macleans.ca
 

Hello from Calgary


 

Cosh checking in here from a hushed and intensely blue-lit room at the Telus Conference Centre in downtown Calgary. I’m pleased to say the drug-sniffer dogs didn’t find anything to object with about my netbook with the Obama sticker, a memento from the California midterms. (This sticker was never ironic! You hear me? NEVER.) Star journalists are in abundance. Terry Milewski holds court from the imperious vantage of the camera platform; on press row John Ivison’s rhotics slice the air. Projections from Tory true-believers fall within a surprisingly narrow band, as far as I can tell; between 150 and 160. Count Floyd just threw up the Atlantic Canada results; the crowd is still filing in. More as it comes.


 
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Hello from Calgary

  1. Who knows if the results I'm seeing right now on National Post site will hold, but it's looking very good for the Cons. With 18 of the 36 seats in BC, they'll be on track for a majority. According to NP, they're leading or elected in 137, and there are no results listed for BC.

  2. The pop vote for the Conservatives is at 40% and climbing. So much for the polls.

    • I predicted this 1-2 points diff in Conservative support. My reasons are here:
      http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/05/01/election-forec

      Undecideds are more likely to swing to incumbents. Also, Cons have more motivated voters and can expect better turnout. Also, the Cons have good turnout due to their better support amongst older voters. And not only that, I think that swing voters, those that have made up their minds just recently (ie half of NDP voters), are less likely to show up (due to the uncertainty in their minds and their lack of resolve), dampening the NDP numbers.

      In summary, most pollsters in Canada don't measure likely voters.

      • There seems to be a trend of under estimating the Conservative vote. I enjoy the surprise but it's frustrating listening to the Lib-leftie taunts for the entire campaign.

        Although they aren't laughing tonight.

        • Those taunts make this moment even sweeter.

          And you can't blame the pollsters either. They typically measure registered voters, not likely voters. Likely voters is more difficult to define and somewhat subjective. Most pollsters in the US are similar, except I think rasmussen measures likely voters, and their numbers tend to be consistently different from the other pollsters for that very reason.

          I think that perhaps Ipsos reid might occasionally measure likely voters? Not sure though. They're the ones that were showing the Conservatives at 43 for a couple of polls.

  3. Must be jumping there Colby! I'd love to be there. CBC shows the Cons elected in 110, leading in 52, for a clear majority of 162. Of course, I don't know if those numbers will hold.

  4. Ha ha ha ha suck it PINKOs…deal with it for oh, the next FIVE YEARS…

    • Wrong blog. Go to Wherry's blog, that's where you'll find them.

  5. Congratulations to Prime Minister Harper on the CPC majority government. Never before has somebody won their first majority government on their 4th try.

    And good riddance to the Bloc Quebecois…may this be the end of regional rump parties.

    • Yes, perseverance and patience pays off. Congrats to Harper, and congrats to Canada.

  6. So, then, there was this committee of MPs and jurists working on some Afghan detainee documents. I am sure Aaron will be pleased to know that they'll get right back on that…

  7. Congrats to PHSH…..pragmatic and adaptable!!!