Michael Ignatieff: Resurgent! - Macleans.ca

Michael Ignatieff: Resurgent!


Right on cue, the latest poll puts the Liberals up one.

And that’s about the last time we’ll be discussing the horse race here at Beyond the Commons.


Michael Ignatieff: Resurgent!

  1. The only difference between this poll and the other, it looks like all the other polls. Somewhere Darrel Bricker is blushing.

    I expect a detailed post tomorrow analyzing how Ignatieff turned it around and Harper fumbled.

    • Harper goes Iqaliut -> Ipos
      Iggy goes to Yellowknife -> Harris.

      The far, far North is the soul of this nation.

      • A quick stop in Whitehorse, victory is ours.

        • Any chance of Jack Layton taking a dog sled to Resolute?

  2. And that's about the last time we'll be discussing the horse race here at Beyond the Commons.

    What odds will you give me?

  3. And that's about the last time we'll be discussing the horse race here at Beyond the Commons.

    Hear, hear. Beyond the Commons is clearly above such lowbrow poll-watching. Let's get back to covering important things, like which of our Cabinet ministers ate the seal meat, and whether the meat was cooked or not.

    • Picture of Peter Mackay eating seal meat on front page of today's G&M. I believe the bread he was also eating was flown in from Baguetteville.

      • crit, don't forget Omar Khadr, asbestos, M. Ignatieff's past…

    • Don't complain. It will give you so much more time to devote to the intense
      parsing and interpreting of Mr. Ignatieff's many – oh, so many – sentences.

      • Hey, I'm only human. I have weaknesses. When Iggy writes something like: "To paraphrase Freud, Canadian identity is a national form of the narcissism of minor difference" I can't resist quoting him.

        • again and again

        • A frog quoting Ignatieff paraphrasing Freud.

          Ain't the interwebs awesome !

  4. LoL Aaron!

  5. Of course we could take a look at the methodological differences that might drive these differences (a discrepancy that large is unlikely to come from a poll taken from the same population). For instance Harris-Decima may poll likely voters, while Ipsos polls all Canadians. Since the relevant population is people that WILL vote in the next election (something that hasn't happened yet) it can be tricky to get the right screen.

    In many respects, polls may be more useful as relative measures. That is, Harris-Decima polls are useful only with respect to other Harris-Decima polls (or polls using the same methodology). For instance, while Rasmussen and Gallup in the US have recorded a large difference in Obama's approval ratings, both individually show a decline during the summer. Where the trajectories differ it may tell us something about how different kinds of voters are reacting (for instance the decline is more pronounced on Rasmussen, which polls likely voters who are generally more politically aware/active).

    Of course Americans have the benefit of daily tracking polls. The last Ipsos-Reid poll (that I could find) had the Tories at 35% and the Liberals at 33% (this was in May 2009). The last Decima poll, conducted in June, gave Ignatieff a 4-point lead over the Tories. In other words, we can probably say the following:

    1. Ignatieff is worse off than he was in the Spring/early summer.
    2. Ignatieff's decline has probably been greater among likely voters (Ipsos) than the average person off the street (Decima).

    • You used to be on the Blogging Tory aggregator, no?

      • Yes, I took myself off of it, however. I would rather be able to talk about a wider variety of topics, and figured that endorsing John Manley as PM (during the depths of the December troubles) may not make me a Tory any more.

        • Some of my best friends have endorsed John Manley as PM.

    • Since they have been neck and neck in all polls all summer long, and continue to be neck and neck with the exception of this one single Decima poll, we can probably say the following:

      1. Harper is worse off than he was in the Fall election a year ago.

      2. Harper's decline has probably been greater among likely voters than the average person off the street.

      3. The Decima poll is that 1/20 poll that somehow pops way out of whack with all other polls and should be even more dismissed than every other poll that is taken in the summer.

      • You mean Ipsos, correct? In terms of that out of whack poll.

  6. It's really hard to compare this poll and the Ipsos poll directly, because of their different field dates. Ipsos was in the field August 18-20th, Harris was in the field August 13-23rd. The Ipsos poll is, on the whole, more recent (middle date is the 19th compared to 17th for Harris), but absent (low sample!) daily breakdowns from either poll, we can't say they contradict each other with certainty.

  7. Can't help myself… this is the first installment in a new series of advanced polls. Rather than choosing people willy nilly we will use the Maclean blog to carefully screen, limiting the poll to leaders of public opinion tempered with just enough absolute morons. So if an election was to be held tomorrow who would you vote for?
    [polldaddy 1912452 http://answers.polldaddy.com/poll/1912452/ polldaddy]

    • I heard that reality has a liberal bias.

    • Marxist Leninist. But I lie to polltakers. Sometimes.

    • I would vote for … none of the above. Where are the proper parties like Libertarian, Marxist Leninist, Independent, Animal Environment Alliance … etc?

      • I have placed an urgent call to PollDaddy to up the number of allowed parties. For now we restrict ourselves to those included in the debates.
        You think this polling technology is easy?

      • Trying to scrape together enough tin foil helmets to have a convention.

    • I'm voting Green until Iggy gives me an compelling reason to vote Liberal…I thought PMSH would be enough,. turns out..not so much. I need more. I'm selfish like that.

    • Sigh.

      Please don't put me on the spot, yet. I really don't know what I am going. I have come to identify myself as a Progressive Conservative, and that party doesn't exist any more.

      I live in Halton, home of the parachuted Lisa Raitt, and the likewise parachuted Deborah Gillis. I would really prefer that local ridings accounted for more than providers of stake pounders, but that's about the only contribution the Conservative or Liberal party seems to want, these days.

      • Are you talking to me?

  8. Lizzy has coodies?