The Buckley’s election


Jack Layton consults with with his own real people.

“I haven’t heard a stampede of people saying they want an election,” Layton told a news conference. “But ironically, you’ll also get the same person saying, ‘Get that Harper out of there!”‘

Layton compares an election to a popular brand of cough medicine. “Canadians live in this kind of paradox all the time,” he said. “They have an opinion about their government and whether they like it in or want it out. But they also, if you ask them, won’t generally stampede towards an election. It’s like that cough medicine – you know, it tastes bad, but sometime you’ve gotta take it.”


The Buckley’s election

  1. "Got anything to stop this coffin' ? "

  2. Well, now, that is altogether an NDP version of socialized medical care even I thought would go too far. It tastes bad, but you are compelled to swallow it. No appeals.

    Thanks, Jack. Blech.

  3. Well at least we now know whether the NDP will help to topple the government. Medicine implies "good".

  4. Get Harper out with no election? Time to get Mikey and Gilles and walk over to Rideau Hall I guess.

    • Can't happen. Too late.
      MI said the coalition was 'unstable, illegitimate and divisive;. PMSH would get his election.

      • oops, dbl post…thought comment was lost.

    • Too late for that.
      MI said that the 'coalition was unstable, illegitimate and divisive'.
      PMSH has governed long enough, the GG would give him his election.

      • What are those quotes for? Are you trying to make it look like Ignatieff doesn't know our Parliamentary procedure and laws and actually said the coalition was illegitimate? You must be thinking of Harper.

        What Ignatieff said is 'politically illegitimate to many Canadians', which is exactly right and true. A coalition is, in fact, legal and allowed, but is not respectful of tradition which Canadians have come to expect and, it would seem, want to keep.

        Don't mix up Harper's overblown rhetoric about coups with Ignatieff by putting misleading quotes around a phrase he never said.

        • I always find it humorous when the left wing of the political spectrum starts professing deep love for ancient institutions and protools. Iggy has said those things, he was correct….the problem is he also signed the document to see if it would happen. It isnt that MI doesnt know Parliamentary procedure, he doesnt know his own mind half the time….like any good academic he can see 8 sides to a piece of paper.

  5. Get Harper out with no election? Time to Mikey and Gilles and walk over to Rideau Hall I guess.

  6. According to a recent Ekos poll 55% of Canadians say Canada is moving in the right direction compared to 34% who think Canada is moving in the wrong direction. In the same poll 49% of Canadians found the government specifically was moving in the right direction compared to 39% who thought otherwise.

    The Liberals would govern much as the Conservatives are governing. They're searching for a narrative to show why they, and not the Tories, should be governing. And so far they've come up with nothing. Not even a gimmick like we'll get rid of the GST, we'll have National Daycare for everybody, we'll implement the Kyoto accord, (put in your favorite Liberal broken election promise here).

    Where do the Liberals stand on the environment, the same place as Stephen Harper, that's where. The rest is all talk and gimmicks and it's causing a credibility gap.

    • The only way the Liberals would govern differently than the Tories would be if they relied on NDP/Bloc support to sustain themselves in power. Then the Bay Street Lawyers who are the real brains of the Liberal Party (see Jane Taber's articled in today's Globe) would have to hold their noses and cater to those left-wing parties.

      That's Jack's only hope for relevance.

    • That poll is from last week. This week Nanos found:

      "The Conservatives have said that they want a majority government for stability, but the polling suggests that only about 31.5% of Canadians would even like them to see them get re-elected," Mr. Nanos said.

      In the poll, 58.5% of respondents said the statement "Stephen Harper has had his chance and it's time for a change" matched their beliefs.

      • Perhaps you should check the Nanos leaning at threehundredeight.com before you get too excited about their numbers.

        They lean almost as far to the Liberals, as Ipsos-Reid does for the Conservatives. The 2 most distorting polls.

        As a side note, Ekos puts the Liberals over Conservatives by an average of 3 points of where it shoud be, but give them a 2.5% lead in the latest poll.

        These #s cannot be encouraging for any Liberal supporter, and my guess is we are quite a ways a way from another election.
        I'm sure Iggy doesn't view Canadian opinion based on only one pollster.

        Also, I'd like to change Harper out for a leader like say… Jim Prentice, but that hardly means I'll be parking my vote with the opposition parties in the next election.

        • What's your favourite thing about polls? Mine is how, if a person chooses to be the sort who believes in polls, they can choose to believe in any polls that they want.
          Personally, I lie to pollsters. Sometimes. The future does not exist.

          • Must be fun with no savings account, no RRSP, no RESP for the kids and — hey, wait a minute! Aren't you the one who has prebribed his way into paradise? Why, yes! Yes, you are:

            You're joking, right? I've totally been making maximum contributions on my indulgences for the past two decades, and I'm on the List already. But I'll tell you what, you guys seem alright. Once I'm in, I'll talk to a guy I know. No promises, but I'll see what I can do.


          • I'm sorry – what must be fun? Lying to pollsters? It's not the be-all, end-all, but it provides a momentary diversion on the way to one's eternal reward.
            "Prebribed?" Please. They're indulgences. Calling 'em bribes tells me you're not even trying to understand.

          • That's pretty well it in a nutshell I'd say.

  7. The Conservative decision to campaign on eliminating party funding earned through votes while maintaining the high tax-rebate subsidy is going to have an interesting dynamic on this election. As an actual issue, it falls flat for me… it is easy for a conservative to argue that the use of taxpayer money to directly fund party finances is an abuse of public money, it is easy for a liberal to argue that all political decisions should be based on one person- one vote rather than who has the most disposable income to hand over. For political junkies this can be an interesting debate, but it is rather transparent that all of the parties have adopted positions compatible with their own self interest and I suspect the public will see it as that. However for party insiders, the resolution of this debate will have a profound impact on how they run their parties. The Liberals, NDP and Bloc have always said a Harper majority would be a disaster for Canada. Now it is clear a Harper majority would be a disaster for each of their parties' finances for the foreseeable future.

    For many elections the NDP and Bloc have campaigned principally against the Liberals, (this did change midway through the last election) Even attacks aimed principally at the Conservatives were always tempered with "and the Liberals are no better". Of course, the idea is that the conversion of Liberal voters is how these parties can grow. So the question is, will Layton run a campaign against Harper this time out, or will he repeat his bid to become PM? In the absence of the funding issue I would never have believed that Layton would give Ignatieff a pass. However, the prospect of long-term poverty if not financial ruin can certainly have an influence on decision making.

    • That's a really interesting point, Stewart.

    • The NDP and Cons have one common cause, the reduction of the Liberal party to a rump. The Venn diagram of that is if there is a chance to hive off the left wing of the Liberal Party. With Ignatieff in place Layton has that opportunity, unless Iggy leans to the left…..which he has been unwilling to do for the moment.

      Layton may say he wants to be PM, but his first stop is OLO. Harper's interest is in enabling Layton to that end. This is the dynamic that fuels many things. If Layton thinks it is necessary to be part of a coalition first I think he is mistaken but thats his call.

      • That was certainly the NDP plan at the start of the last election. I am not sure the Conservatives going after the $ per vote support has not changed that.

        • The Liberals like to troll in NDP waters and then just as quickly as they are elected, abandon their left-leaning promises. The Liberal National Daycare promise being a case in point. Many on the left have grown cynical, and rightfully so, of Liberals promising things they have no intention keeping.

          The NDP should be going straight at the Liberals, especially now under Ignatieff, who seems to be distancing himself from Dion's left-leaning approach. The Liberals will lurch left just in time for the next election but it will be for their tired old cynical strategy: to poach NDP votes to get into power and then listen to the people who call the shots in that top-down party: the Bay street lawyers and their business clients.

          • LOL, jarrid if you have an opinion about the Liberals you should come out with it.

  8. I knew a Liberal partisan would come screaming in here talking about the latest Nanos poll.

    I almost swear I saw Nanos hold back the sniffles when analysing his numbers in the wake of Dion's infamous ATV interview last campaign on CPAC, so sullen was he.

    Everybody was placed on earth for a reason. Nic Nanos' reason as far as I can tell was to give hope and succor to partisan Liberals. His numbers were way off during the last election campaign and he constantly had the Liberal numbers higher than any other pollster. Only the very last day of his last rolling poll had him close to where the other pollsters were who nailed the last election – Angus Reid and Ekos.

    They love him at Liblogs and here at Blog Central, as I say, he serves a purpose like a sycophantic friend who'll tell you want you want to hear, – it's good for morale but that's about it.

    • Right on the money. Nanos is a liberal shill.

      • Don't forget the mainstream media! And judges! And the civil service!

  9. According to Don Martin of the Calgary Herald in an article out today "a new Ipsos Reid poll came out Friday that showed the Conservatives surging ahead and flirting with 40 per cent voter support."

    I've been to the Ipsos' website but there's no mention of that poll on their website. If anyone can confirm this it could be an indicator of a break in the current Conservative-Liberal logjam in the polls.

    Maybe this explains why Iggy's been hiding. It looks like the showdown at the OK Corral will have to wait a while longer.

    If the Tories are indeed flirting at 40% in the polls Iggy won't be messing with anyone but his underlings.

    • I saw Don Martin's article, and I have no idea what Ipsos-Reid poll he is referring to. Either he made a mistake, or he's referring to a poll that hasn't been published yet. The last published Ipsos-Reid poll showed that the Cons and Libs were essentially tied.

        • Wow. These numbers were just published today, but Martin obviously knew about them on Friday. I'll be curious to see if the other polling firms back up this trend.

        • 19/20…

        • According to the Vitruvius Momentum Measurer, or whatever he is calling it, this would put the Tories in majority territory. It isnt so much being over 40% as being a certain umber of points ahead. My memory fails for the moment as to what that number was, but 11% is defintiely above it.

          If this poll is confirmed by internal Liberal polling then Iggy is headed to the slaughter in September. His first temr paper would be graded an "D", so to speak.

          The article about recruiting Himmelfarb indicates that the OLO is still in High School mode, although the ages of the students have gone up. Dion had a young staff, MI has an older staff but they clearly don't have their eye on the ball, and saying that Himmelfarb could be brought back as PCO was just about the dumbest quote I ever heard. Senior public service just went Harper to protect pecking order and current positions. Forget any leaks now.

    • I looked around for that Ipsos-Reid poll too, with no success. Martin is just too sloppy to be taken seriously, so I won't put much stock in what he says about "flirting with 40 per cent".

      What's infuriating about guys like Martin, is that their writing would improve, and they would gain a lot more credibility, if he even wrote something like "…that showed the Conservatives at 39.2 %" (or whatever the number is). Anyway, it looks like we will have to wait for Ekos on Thursday, for something concrete.

  10. I don't think the polls mean anything until parliament is in session again.

    Most people aren't paying attention – vacations and back to school shopping on their minds.

  11. Jarrid needs to be committed.

    • Im just impressed that he has typed all that he has without the word "Kinsella"

  12. I saw the Nanos poll ,it is a bad joke. The numbers was from June09 and the question" Harper has a chance but need change." no any explanation and detail foolowings.
    Mr. Nanos provided a few years ago recorded video and no one understand what he wants to say nowaday.

  13. Layton is obviously not a true progressive.

    He should be more like Iggy, and speak with less…ahem…pedestrian metaphores, use large words – of the variety one attempts to conjure up to score scrabble points rather than to convey meaning – and generally act as if his audience is the "lesser" pupil to his superior academe.

    I'm told by those in the elite political circles, that Canadians like to treated this way.

  14. Biff said,

    "use large words – of the variety one attempts to conjure up to score scrabble points…"

    very good…..

  15. Layton had it right the first time – there is no stampede of Canadians voters saying they want an election.

    The interesting dynamic in the next election whenever it comes (and I predict October 2010) will be whether Harper can trap MI into promising that, barring a formal coalition, the party that wins the highest number of seats should form the government. If MI agrees, then the Tories will likely form government once again since the Bloc is not yet on the verge of collapse.

  16. That's an insightful comment Two yen. Ignatieff and/or his backroom Liberal braintrust are trying to keep their options open on the policy and the strategy front. Harper's MO is to close those options.

    One thing I'll say about the Harper Conservatives: the Liberal strategists have more than met their match on political tactics – the Conservatives have given the Liberals very little elbow room to date and can fully expect that to continue.

  17. It's confirmed, Stephen has the link above to the National Post story, it's also on Bourque Newswatch and the liberal-leaning National Newswatch. This is HUGE:

    Ipsos-Reid Aug 18th to 20th:

    CPC: 39
    LPC: 28
    NDP: 14
    GPC: 10
    BQ: 8

    And the Tories are leaving the Liberals in the dust in vote-rich Ontario with a whopping 43% to 31% lead. To put this in perspective the Tories won 39-34 in Ontario last October.

    Mr. Ignatieff, come out, come out wherever you are!

    • I knew a Jarrid would come screaming in here talking about the latest Ipsos-Reid poll… as I say, Ipos serves a purpose like a sycophantic friend who'll tell you want you want to hear, – it's good for morale but that's about it.

      • Imitation is the best form of flattery .

        Nanos can go suck on a lemon.

    • Honestly though, unless this is backed up by other polls, I think we may be dealing with a rogue poll.

      • You're quite right, we'll have to wait until Thursday with Ekos to see if this was just an outlier or the start of a trend.

    • Ulm, 43 31 in Ontario? Yowsers!!

      Does anyone know when those new seats come on stream in Ontario, Alberta and BC? Numbers like that indicate the Cons would pick up close to 75% of those seats, none are in 416 as far as I can recall.

      Numbers like that also mean that there could be a couple of 416 con seats….Joe Volpe might want to start campaigning now.

      Polls are snapshots, 4 weeks of snapshots to go before npon confidence motion. It will be like an election leading into that…welcom to the perpetual campaign of minority governments and opposition parties that just dont know when to stop.

      • The new seats will not be along until 2014.

        I would love to get excited about the Ipsos poll, but I'm not…. yet

        EKOS on Thursday will give a better idea

  18. Easy there, my politically charged friends.

    I suggest we find a middle ground on the polls, say, something that reflects objectively verifiable reality.

    And the objectively verifiable reality is that Iggy has, by any measure, failed to provide any semblance of vision, strength, and just plain cajones to stay in the polical fight. His wishy washy prevarications, willingness to walk away from his own lines in the sand, and his penchant for sojourning abroad during critical times, is unbecoming one who was annointed by party brass to bring in a new Liberal era.

    He just doesn't have it. And I wouldn't be surprised if he walked away from the leadership to go back to his Ivy League ivory tower in the not-too-distant future.

  19. We know have a comparison of two Polls.
    The Ipsos-Reid Poll details are only available to "premium subscribers" so analysis of the questions and methodolgy may be reduced to the media/over zealous partisans. How will the media/partisans spin those Polls?
    I already commented the Nanos Poll (in my opinion) was designed to funnel all the negative/opposition sentiment in regards to the current PM. * I noted a drop of 2.6% of negative sentiment (July30-Aug 2, 2009) to the last official Poll October 14,2008. Ipsos-Reid Poll (Aug 18-20,2009) 4-6 points gain from last Ekos 32.8%, Angus Polls 34.9% or 2% to the last official Poll October 14,2008.

    <a href="http://paulitics.wordpress.com/poll-index/nationa…” target=”_blank”>http://paulitics.wordpress.com/poll-index/nationa

    <a href="http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/07…” target=”_blank”>http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/07

    Can a Pollster design questions to influence a desired outcome? I suggest an analysis of the questions by each Pollster to help mitigate the design flaws.

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