This just in: Not much of anything has changed in three years - Macleans.ca
 

This just in: Not much of anything has changed in three years


 

Federal election, January 23, 2006. Conservatives 36.3%, Liberals 30.2%.

Federal election, October 14, 2008. Conservatives 37.6%, Liberals 26.3%

Threehundredight.com, current projection. Conservatives 35.2%, Liberals 30.2%


 

This just in: Not much of anything has changed in three years

  1. Has there ever been a comparison done of the aggregate polling taken the day before the writ is dropped, compared to the actual results on election day?

    I know that Nanos compares their final polling data to the election results to determine how accurate they are, but that data is from 2 days before the election.

    I'd like to see a comparison of the polls in November 2005 vs Election 2006 and August/Sept 2008 vs Election 2008.

  2. It all depends on the poll…..I agree with the projection based on AR…use EKOS and you get a different result more Con seats but a real coin toss on whether it is a majority.

    The message of all of the polls is that prior to an election campaign it isnt clear that significant change of seats would happen, it is possible either way. Con vote has a solid floor but they could lose some seats in a bad campaign. The Libs could self destruct further, theya re dancing very close to the line in Ontario.

    But elections have consequences, even if the result is exactly the same as last time. Failing a "colaition" at least 4 of the 5 leaders will change between the next election and the one following.

  3. Too bad this projection doesn't take into account the last few polls which put the Conservatives in the low 40's and the Liberals in the mid 20's. I suspect this won't look quite a rosy for Wherry when the site is updated.

    • The site's projection numbers were updated, October 16th. If you read the blog, you will note, all those polls have been taken into account.

      • Eric weights his polls against past election results.

        Its self-referential to say nothing has changed because his system is designed to NOT CHANGE!

        Duh. He also gives weight to polls taken months ago, during Harper's collapse and Iggy's rise.

        I'm not saying any of it is wrong but this headline by Wherry lacks basic understanding and context. Its actually pretty amateur and should be taken down.

        • I don't think anybody reads Wherry's blog posts for his great insights… Though if Davie or Kinsella do, it might explain a lot about how the Liberals have been doing business.

    • Actually, it does.

    • This post counts as Wherry being too partisan? Really?

  4. Anyone who doesn't fall on his or her knees and genuflect for King Steve is a Liberal partisan to dakota.

  5. Now I think this post here is Liberal wishful thinking.

    I didn't buy the Tories being up by 14-15 points, but I don't buy them being below where they were at, at the end of last year's campaign, either. They're clearly at or above 37% right now.

    Mightn't last — the spending stuff might take a toll on their numbers in the near future.

    ***

    For those of you who want to compare pre-writ and final polls, here's your raw data.

    2004 election period: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_
    2006 election period: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_t
    2008 election period: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_t