Three days -

Three days


Three days ago, Blair Robertson posted a video to YouTube with his predictions for the next few months of political events in Canada. Among his prognostications: that a fall election would be disastrous for the Liberals and that the number two would somehow factor into the fortunes of Michael Ignatieff and Stephen Harper, possibly in the form of floor-crossing MPs.

What’s happened since then? Well, the Liberals dispatched Senator David Smith to cast doubt on the conventional wisdom that his party would force a fall election. And two Conservative MPs broke with the government’s position on asbestos mining, putting themselves in line with Mr. Ignatieff’s stated position.

My bold prediction: by end of business today, Blair Robertson will be the newest member of the Globe and Mail’s Ottawa bureau or Evan Soloman’s first hire for CBC’s new evening politics show.


Three days

  1. I'm sure Robertson's predictions are at least as accurate as those of political pundits. Whether he can beat a dart-throwing chimpanzee is another matter.

  2. What's next Aaron, "reporting" on UFO conspiracy theories? Bigfoot spottings? Give it a rest.

    • someone woke up cranky today!

  3. I think Ignatieff would do better than expected in a fall election. Unemployment is still high (and not falling) and the organizational gap between the Liberals and Tories is much narrower than it was a year ago. Moreover, while the Liberals have restocked their war chest, the Dippers ran a very expensive (20 million dollar) campaign in '08. Only a single poll since Ignatieff's rise to the leadership has Harper doing anywhere as well as in 2008 (if you run seat projections based on those polls, even in the Ipsos worst case scenario, Iggy hardly loses any seats). Ignatieff can lose an election and still gain 30 or so seats, putting himself in position for another election. As an added bonus, Harper might find himself wiped out in Quebec, seriously limiting his government's ability to be representative of Canada.

    If Ignatieff waits past the fall he lets Harper take credit for an economic recovery. Moreover, Ignatieff's ability to exist without any policy commitments is getting more and more tenuous by the day.

  4. This is the end of the end for the Digressive Conservatives and Mr. Minority Man-Firewall Harper. It took 50 years plus to boot out the Right-Wing corrupt government in Japan. We will see the same outcome tout suite for the minority party that is hanging on by their dirty toenails here in Canada.