Duceppe's last stand?

[As my fellow maudit anglais pointed out in a most interesting post, I’ve been away to get both married and drunk—in that order, I should add. Anyway, I’m back now, sober and sun-kissed.]

It’s sometimes hard to tell if Gilles Duceppe actually likes his job as Bloc leader. Last year, not only did he very temporarily jump ship to challenge Pauline Marois for the PQ leadership, he also laid out the conditions for his departure from the Bloc in an interview with Le Devoir.

Thirty-eight seats: that’s the minimum Duceppe would need to stay on as leader.

For a guy who not so long ago mused about the Bloc getting 50% of the vote in Quebec and who’s been consistently blessed with over 95% support inside the party, the bar seemed a bit low at the time. Even now, the Bloc would have to lose 10 seats to get there. Still, like his too-short-to-be-a-prodigal-son dip in the PQ’s waters, it showed Duceppe with one foot out the door.

As fate (or luck or whatever) would have it, Barry Kay’s latest seat projections peg Duceppe’s future caucus at 38 seats on the nose. Now, imagine you’re Duceppe and this is the final result on October 14: Do you stay? Do you go? What if the final tally is 39 seats? Or 37? What do you do then?

While you ponder the question, let the Bloc’s impossibly earnest campaign theme song inspire you:

(For the truly curious, check out the lyrics here.)

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