It's the stupid leadership stupid (Nanos Poll) - Macleans.ca

It’s the stupid leadership stupid (Nanos Poll)

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From the Nanosphere, the latest poll has it 38-28.8-17.9-9.3-5.9.

The nine-point spread is in line with where the polls seem to have stabilized. A few interesting parts that I can see (haven’t looked at the tables yet):

– This is bad for the Greens. Their trend seems to be to poll around 10 and get around 5; to be polling this low is not good.

– the 19% undecided suggests an electorate that is shopping around

– the biggest number for the Cons is that Harper scores double Iggy’s numbers on “most prime ministerial”. For Ignatieff to be at 17.7% on leadership, with Layton at 14.9%, is really bad for the Liberals. Yes, the OLO is going through serious gyrations right now, but this speaks to a larger branding problem for the Liberal leader.

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Nik on the Numbers

Our latest national poll shows that the Conservatives continue to hold a comfortable lead over the Liberals.

Looking at which of the party leaders Canadians believe would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper now leads by a significant, 17 point, margin over over Michael Ignatieff. This represents the widest gap since Ignatieff was elected leader of the Liberal Party.

Factoring the advantage in the ballot box and on the best PM front, the Conservatives currently have the upper hand. The dilemma they face is that their numbers are strong but it is difficult to take advantage of it politically because of the Harper communications mantra that “this isn’t a good time for an election”.

Likewise, with a defeat in parliament at the hands of the opposition parties not imminent, it is hard for the Tories to plead the instability or unworkability of parliament.

To chat about this poll join the national political online chat at Nik on the Numbers. The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website along with regional breakdowns. You can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology
Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,005 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between November 7th and November 10th. A survey of 1,005 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20, for 814 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Margins may be larger for smaller samples.

Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between October 10th and October 18th, 2009.

National (n=814)
Conservative 38.0% (-1.8)
Liberal 28.8% (-1.2)
NDP 17.9% (+1.3)
BQ 9.3% (+0.4)
Green 5.9% (+1.3)
Undecided 19.0% (+1.5)

Best PM Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister? [Rotate]
Stephen Harper 34.8%
Michael Ignatieff 17.7%
Jack Layton 14.9%
Gilles Duceppe 6.5%
Elizabeth May 4.5%
None of them 9.0%
Unsure 12.6%

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest “Nanos Poll.”

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