Angus Reid: Pollocalypse now! (37/27/17/6/41)

Now here’s the death-defying Liberal plunge we were expecting to see:

Conservatives:  37 (-)

Liberals: 27 (-2)

NDP: 17 (+1)

Green: 6 (-2)

Bloc Quebecois (Quebec only): 41 (+6)

Okay, that two point drop is within the margin of error, but still — it’s not exactly an encouraging trend for the Liberals, although once again, ITQ notes that the Conservatives don’t seem to have been able to harvest the spoils from this, the September of Ignatieffian discontent. So far.

As Angus Reid points out, that would produce “virtually the same results” as the last election, at least if you go by share of the vote, although it’s not clear whether it would be the same parliament, or just the same numbers with a bit of seat shuffling.

I’ll post the regionals — with plus/minus — in a second, but it’s worth noting that the Liberals actually went up in Quebec; it was the Conservatives that sank by seven points, but since that doesn’t fit into the narrative, expect that to be roundly ignored by we-told-you-so-ing columnists.

Anyway, expect an update soon, but feel free to feast on the entrails in the comments in the meantime.

UPDATE: As promised, the regional breakdown, with changes from last week:

British Columbia

Conservatives: 42 (+5)
Liberals: 23 (-6)
NDP: 28 (+5)
Green:7 (-1)


Conservatives: 61 (-)
Liberals: 18 (-)
NDP: 11 (-6)
Green:5 (-2)


Conservatives: 50 (+3)
Liberals: 13 (-9)
NDP: 29 (+11)
Green:5 (-5)


Conservatives: 44 (-)
Liberals: 30 (-)
NDP: 16 (+1)
Green: 8 (-2)


Bloc Quebecois: 41 (+6)
Conservatives: 14 (-7)
Liberals: 27 (+1)
NDP: 13(+1)
Green: 8 (-3)

Atlantic Canada

Conservatives: 32 (+10)
Liberals: 34 (-23)
NDP: 28 (+7)
Green: 5 (+4)

From which we can reasonably conclude that Denis Coderre’s resignation as Quebec lieutenant came as particularly unwelcome news to erstwhile Liberal supporters in every region other than Quebec. Oh, and Ontario, which apparently dozed through the last week of political intrigue and excitement on the Hill.

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