Since June, the Conservatives have gained five points in the CROP poll of federal party support in Quebec, to 31%. The Liberals have green-shifted down a point to 20%. This is a little below the 20.7% Paul Martin won in 2006, the party’s worst showing in Quebec since Confederation, up to that point.
CROP shows the Conservatives utterly dominant in the Quebec City region; caught in a statistical three-way tie with the Bloc and Liberals in the Montreal region; and competitive with the Bloc in other regions, at about double the Liberal level of support.
Dion spent the summer branding himself as the most aggressively environmentalist of the major national party leaders. Harper spent the summer cancelling arts programs which are said to be dear to the Québécois heart. If he cancelled twice as many would he be at 36% now?
I kid. I’m a kidder. But these numbers, from a pollster who’s in the field 10 times a year for Montreal’s best newspaper, are extraordinary.