Conservative parties could be on the verge of claiming a majority of the country’s legislative seats.
“Right now, we have 481 seats out of 1,023 federal and provincial ridings, based on the most recent election or by-election in each,” said Wexler, who first presented this tally — and the challenge — to special Manning Centre briefings at last June’s federal Conservative convention in Ottawa. “So, to achieve half, or 512, there would need to be a net gain of 31 seats,” he says.
Another way to look at this: If the Progressive Conservatives win in Ontario and Manitoba (the two provinces most likely to change next month), every province west of Quebec will be represented by a conservative premier. Overall, conservatives would lead seven provinces—the Liberals two and the NDP one—and represent about 73% of the population.