So, based on these results, as well as the numbers we’ve seen from a few other pollsters whose names do not begin with the letter I, it looks like we’ve got ourselves a five point gap between the two leading contenders (insert wounded grumbling from already tender NDP supporters here):
So, based on these results, as well as the numbers we’ve seen from a few other pollsters whose names do not begin with the letter I, it looks like we’ve got ourselves a five point gap between the two leading contenders (insert wounded grumbling from already tender NDP supporters here):
Conservatives: 35.1 (+0.9)
Liberals: 29.9 (-0.9)
NDP: 16.5 (+1.8)
Green: 9.0 (-1.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 38.9 (-0.9)
Undecided/Ineligible: 13.3 (-1.6)
I’ll put up the regionals once I’ve had time to plow through the data tables, but really, the numbers haven’t shifted all that much. Which is kind of surprising, actually, considering all the sound and fury emanating from all sides that marked The Return of Parliament (But For How Long?), not to mention the public uprising that was allegedly brewing over The Election Nobody Wants (And May, As It Turns Out, Have Been Staved Off For The Moment) and, of course, the dark rumblings over The Anti-Democratic Coalition They Want Even Less (Or So We Are Constantly Informed). Is anyone out there still paying attention, or have y’all (well, not y’all, of course) just given up?
Anyway, once again, the bonus questions provide the most scope for speculation and analysis, at least as far as ITQ is concerned.
First, there’s the always fascinating question of what eventual electoral outcome respondents feel would be “best”:
Liberal minority: 14.0
Liberal majority: 25.4
Conservative minority: 8.1
Conservative majority: 27.8
That works out to 39.4% in favour of some sort of Liberal government, compared to 35.9% for a Conservative configuration; it’s interesting that, despite the conventional wisdom that Canadians — even non-Conservative-supporting Canadians — are reasonably comfortable with the current setup, a Conservative minority is actually the least favoured option of the four. Meanwhile, at 24.7%, “none of the above” is a close third. Hey, Canadians: remind ITQ why it is that y’all don’t want an election? Because honestly, you really don’t seem all that thrilled by the status quo, and she’s starting to suspect that, when posed that particular question by pollsters, your short, sharp “no” in response may be at least a little bit Pavlovian.
The breakdown by party leaning is even more of a brow-furrower: Although 77.1 percent of Conservative leaners want to see Stephen Harper get that majority — compared to just 65.7% of Liberals who say the same about their party — outside the CPC column, support for any sort of Conservative government — minority or majority — is in the single digits.The Liberals, on the other hand, get what is likely a somewhat grudging nod of approval from between 30 to 35 percent of those who plan to vote for one of the other three parties, and are even a teensy weensy bit ahead of the Conservatives with the undecided.
Of course, since 56% of those same undecideds went with “none of the above”, who really knows what they imagine when asked to envision the best possible House of Commons?
Finally, it turns out that it’s not the leader or the local candidate that has the most influence over how Canadians may eventually cast their respective ballots: It’s the party platform. I know, apparently, we’re a nation of policy wonks: 42% of respondents say it’s the “most important factor”, compared to 22.3% who choose based on the leader, 16.9% who, bless their anachronistic little souls, vote for the local candidate, and finally, the cards-close-to-their-chest-keeping 18.7% who went with none of the above.
Those numbers are consistent across party lines, by the way; the undecideds, however, are markedly less likely to take the leader into consideration. Oh, undecideds. You really are the strangest and most charmed flavour of quark.
Anyway, that’s enough thread fodder for the moment, I think — I’ll update this post when I figure out the regional breakdowns, but feel free to go all armchair pollingologist in the comments in the meantime.
UPDATE: Look! Regionals!
British Columbia (MoE 5.57)
Conservatives: 36.0 (+1.1)
NDP: 26.7 (+5.8)
Liberals: 25.0 (-6.3)
Green: 12.3 (-0.6)
Alberta (MoE 6.27)
Conservatives: 60.1 (+3.3)
Liberals: 18.6 (+0.2)
NDP: 11.4 (-3.4)
Green: 9.9 (-0.1)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 6.98)
Conservatives: 43.9 (-5.5)
Liberals: 26.6 (+0.7)
NDP: 20.1 (+3.9)
Green: 9.4 (+0.7)
Ontario (MoE 3.03)
Conservatives: 40.1 (+1.7)
Liberals: 35.5 (-1.0)
NDP: 15.4 (+1.7)
Green: 9.0 (-2.4)
Quebec (MoE 3.74)
Bloc Quebecois: 38.9 (-0.9)
Liberals: 27.1 (-0.6)
Conservatives: 16.0 (+0.5)
NDP: 10.5 (+0.7)
Green: 7.6 (-0.6)
Atlantic (MoE 6.61)
Liberals: 37.5 (+5.3)
Conservatives: 28.7 (-2.3)
NDP: 28.2 (+1.7)
Green: 5.5 (-4.9)
As above, so below: No major shifts, really — at least, nothing that isn’t well inside the margin of error. Liberals are sliding in British Columbia, but have regained the lead in Atlantic Canada, and the Conservatives are down in Saskitoba for some reason. (Any idea, prairie-dwellers?)