Prodigal sons and daughters - Macleans.ca

Prodigal sons and daughters

by

From our friend Paul Adams, who seems to be everywhere this autumn and who is blogging on these Ekos robo-polls for — well, for his employer, Ekos, I’ve brazenly swiped this damned interesting chart. In return for my larceny, I ask you to follow the link to Paul’s explanation. My own explanation comes below, after the chart…

Voter Retention

Reported Vote – 2006

Vote Intention – 2008

CPC

LPC

NDP

BQ

Green

Did not vote

Conservative

84

18

5

9

11

35

Liberal

6

62

13

5

13

18

NDP

5

11

74

11

6

30

Bloc Québécois

1

1

1

71

2

1

Green

4

8

7

4

68

16

This chart collates some of what pollsters call “cross-tabs” from the latest Ekos Cylon Terminator robo-poll. Stated party support from the 2006 election is cross-indexed with stated party preference in this election right here now. So if you look down from “CPC,” you see that 84% of people who seem to recall voting for the Harper Conservatives in 2006 are now planning to vote for the Harper Conservatives again. Similarly, the NDP seems likely to keep 74% of its 2006 voters, the Bloc 71% of their voters, the Greens 68%, and… the Dion Liberals are on track to keep 62% of those who voted for the Paul Martin Liberals.

Where are those leaking Liberals leaking to? One in five of them plan to vote for the Harper Conservatives. In contrast, only 6% of 2006 Harper Conservative voters are angry enough to plan to switch to the Liberals.

Anyway, Paul Adams has more.