Projection puts Tories in majority, first time since 2008 - Macleans.ca

Projection puts Tories in majority, first time since 2008

Conservatives in line to elect 157 MPs according to LISPOP

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In case you were wondering how that new Ipsos poll showing the Conservatives way out in front changes the election outlook,  the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, known as LISPOP, has a new seat projection today that puts the Tories in majority territory for the first time since the 2008 election.

The research centre at Wilfrid Laurier University plugged the four latest polls from Ipsos, Nanos and Harris-Decima, all conducted this month, into its model for turning votes into seats, and came up with 157 MPs being elected for the Conservatives. The Liberals would have 68, the NDP 32 and the Bloc 51.

According to LISPOP’s Barry Kay, the outcome if you removed the latest Ipsos poll—which pegged Tory support at 43 per cent of decided voters, compared to 24 per cent for the Liberals—the seat count for Prime Minister Stephen Harper would have been a few seats shy of a majority.

Thinking about battlegrounds. Kay says his latest projection, based on those recent polls, assumes a Tory lead of 10 points in Ontario—enough to make the suburban band around Toronto the richest hunting ground for Conservatives aiming to take previously Liberal seats.

Seat projections are, of course, only as good as the polls that fuel them. And the polls, in turn, capture voter intentions at a moment in time. All of which is mentioned to keep in mind the obvious—campaigns matter.