Libya: ‘There is no easy way out’

Held up as one of the success stories of the Arab Spring, Libya has taken a turn to chaos

Abdel Magid al Fergany / AP / CP

For almost two months now, the gunmen have brought Libya’s economy to a dead halt. One group of disgruntled tribesmen in the west have seized control of the major oil fields, and another set of strikers, protesters and militiamen are blockading the oil terminals along the eastern coast. Their demands are diverse—greater regional autonomy, an end to corruption, better pay, more jobs—but their effect singular. Oil production has dropped by more than 90 per cent, and exports—the cash generator that provides two-thirds of state revenues and keeps the central government afloat—went from 830,000 barrels a day in July, to a low of 80,000 per day in early September.

The country’s highest religious authority, the Grand Mufti, declared that disruptions of Libya’s oil industry, for any reason whatsoever, are a “grave sin.” Prime Minister Ali Zeidan has tried blandishments—pushing through a 20 per cent raise for employees of the national oil company—and veiled threats. “I hope that we won’t be forced to do something that we don’t want,” he told reporters in Tripoli last week. “But I won’t let anyone hold Libya and its resources hostage to irresponsible acts of these groups for long.” Although lacking a proper army, and stuck with an undermanned and outgunned police force, it’s hard to see how he could back up the tough talk.

As the second anniversary of the fall of Moammar Gadhafi approaches, Libya’s future is looking more and more precarious. Months of squabbling over legislation to bar the former dictator’s followers from public life has left the already fragile interim government deeply divided. In many parts of the country, the armed groups that led the bloody eight-month revolution remain laws unto themselves. Public frustration at the slow pace of reform and a general lack of services—including health care, education, and power—mushrooms by the day. And the favoured form of political protest has become the small siege.

Last spring, the Revolutionary Brigades—the new quasi-army formed from militias that the government has promised to put on the payroll—turned its guns on the General National Congress, forcing legislators to temporarily suspend their activities. Then they blockaded the ministries of justice, the interior and foreign affairs for more than two weeks, all to push for even tougher sanctions against those who once worked for Gadhafi. In June, there were two days of fierce fighting between rival militias in the streets of Tripoli, followed by a series of car bombings, in both the capital and the eastern city of Benghazi. In early September, Tripoli’s water supply was cut off for 10 days when members of the Magraha tribe—upset over the kidnapping of one of their kinswomen—shut down a pumping station at the source, several hundred kilometres to the south. Weary residents survived on bottled water, and pumped out their air conditioners in order to flush toilets.

“The continuing volatile security situation in Libya in general, and in the eastern and southern parts of the country in particular, is a source of grave concern,” a United Nations report to the Security Council warned last week. Government officials and buildings have come under attack, as have foreign diplomats and embassies. The stumbling economy and lack of tangible improvements in people’s daily lives are fuelling an angry and increasingly polarized political culture. The country’s “insecurity should not be underestimated,” says the UN, urging the government to make the protection of civilians and rule of law “a national priority.”

Held up as one of the great success stories of the Arab Spring following its free and peaceful elections in the summer of 2012, and the victory of a liberal coalition, Libya has taken a sudden turn toward chaos. “I don’t believe that it’s a real failure scenario yet,” says Sir Richard Dalton, a former British ambassador and head of the Libya Working Group at Chatham House, a U.K. think tank. “But in the last six months, it’s become increasingly unstable.” Local disputes and conflicts are now being played out on the national stage, eroding the already slow progress of the central government. “It’s really been their failure to come to grips with the security issue and monopolize force,” says Dalton. “There are large spaces in the country that the government doesn’t control.”

Magdalena Mugrabhi, one of Amnesty International’s representatives in Libya, says there are no lack of good intentions on the part of the government. “At the highest level, the authorities are committed to the improvement of the security and the human rights situation.” But the after-effects of the 42-year dictatorship, and the drive to keep anyone who was even remotely associated with the Gadhafi era out of positions of responsibility, have left a huge knowledge gap. She cites the example of the judicial police—charged with guarding and transferring prisoners and providing security for the courts. Stripped of its old leadership and officers, the force is now about half of its pre-conflict size, and almost entirely made up of former revolutionaries. “They don’t know how to deal with detainees, and they have had little or no training in police work,” says Mugrabhi. With some 8,000 people currently in jail—mostly members of the old regime—it’s proving to be a serious problem.

For the last two years, the Western governments that helped ensure the success of the revolution via air power have taken a generally hands-off approach to the country, preferring to let Libyans solve their own problems. But that may soon change. The oil shutdown is the biggest challenge the shaky Zeidan government has ever faced, and it’s costing state coffers more than $130 million in lost revenue each day; $7.5 billion in total so far. “The government pays the militias with that revenue,” says Frederic Wehrey, a Libya expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. “So the use of oil as a political weapon is a real turn for the worse.”

There are suggestions that a negotiated end to the crisis is getting closer. Last week, production resumed at one large field, and workers were busy inspecting equipment at another. There were also reports of a tentative agreement with the occupiers of three export terminals. But even if that proves true, it will take months for the country to ramp production back up to the 1.4 million barrels a day that were being produced this past spring. During a quick trip to London to meet with donors and investors, Libya’s prime minister made a plea for more boots-on-the-ground aid. “If the international community does not help in the collection of arms and ammunition, if we don’t get help in forming the army and the police, things are going to take very long,” said Zeidan. “The situation is not going to improve unless we get real and practical assistance.”

Blessed with an abundant resource, and an educated and urban population, Libya seems an unlikely candidate to become a failed state like Somalia. And despite the well-publicized attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi last year and the death of ambassador Chris Stevens, there is little evidence that Islamists are gaining ground. For the most part, the militias remain focused on money and politics rather than religion. And as Wehrey notes, despite the regional squabbles there remains a strong national desire to see the sacrifices of the revolution validated by the creation of a better country. It’s just that the road forward has proven a lot rougher than people first imagined. “It’s a Herculean task to really escape from 42 years of tyrannical rule, where there were no institutions,” he says. “There is no easy way out.”

Although at present, Libyans would simply settle for someone who can keep the lights on, and the taps—for both oil and water—open.




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Libya: ‘There is no easy way out’

  1. All this chaos was accurately foretold by many leading political analysts long before the shameful regime change. Regime change for control of fossil fuels is now standard procedure , however and most unfortunately the civilian population is left in a drastically worst state. Canadians participated in the turkey shoot bombing and were welcomed as heroes on their return. Flying over undefended territory unopposed is not heroic conduct ,especially when many innocent civilians are killed.
    Canada should have refused to participate in this charade. However that would have taken leadership.

    • Hell, i’m no leading political analyst and i accurately foretold this,

  2. Well once again we’re the bull that blundered into the china shop. And sooner or later a ‘strong man’ will come along to straighten it all out and the people will love him for it…..and we’ll have Gadhafi II.

    But they will all hate us even more for putting them through this disaster.

    The west needs to learn to mind it’s own business.

    • You are completely correct. Let the Saudis help these fellow muslims stand on their feet. Sadly, there is no democracy in the Arab world, because there are no Muslim Arab role models. Trying to help these people to live under democratic systems of government is absurd.

      The closest thing that they’ve got is Egypt.

      • I don’t know what annoys me the most…..the idea that remove-a-dictator equals instant democracy…..or the fact we KEEP doing it in country after country.

        You’d think we’d at least learn from our mistakes.

        It took the west centuries to get from ancient Greece to today…..and gawd knows we still make huge mistakes…..yet we expect other countries to do it overnight.

        • Re-reading the Republic, caused me to think a bit about democracy. IF Plato had something when he placed democracy next to anarchy; that is – waiting for a strong leader/ dictator to create order, then maybe that’s what we’re experiencing now globally. Guerrillas/ terrorists/ anarchy. Maybe seeking democracy is not the direction we should be aspiring to? ( An aside: how well are the G 20 countries doing in the democracy realm ?

          • Well democracy has a lot of problems, so I’m no great fan….but Churchill said……….

            ‘It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.’

            Mind you he also said………..

            ‘The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.’

            As to the G20, well Saudi Arabia is a member…..but we don’t mention that.

          • Excellent! (Except for the Saudi part – I didn’t know that) . Any democracy I can think of is run by a money elite. And if you happen to get into these echelons without money … Well, I’m not sure I could remain ‘pure’. On top of this pressure would be the often ill thought out demands of the voting public.
            So here lies a fundamental problem: the corruption of power.

          • People have confused money with brains….the old saying….’if you’re so smart how come you aren’t rich?’……and they assume all rich people are smart. Donald Trump? Mick Jagger?

            I don’t know of any poor person who is considered smart….even people who look poor are in fact rich….like the Dalai Llama

            Evangelical preachers are the worst for this. LOL

            But yeah, people vote their wallet….and it’s not necessarily for what’s good for society.

          • Tut tut Emily.
            Little baby Justine won’t be happy to find you here badmouthing Mick Jagger. Oy gevalt!

          • Tighten your seat belt Emily, an Emily record is on the horizon

            Right at this moment you’re standing on 8,390 stupid comments posted up here.

            Wallmart officials wlll shortly be announcing over the PA that you’ve crossed into Troller’s History at an astonishing 8,400 pieces of Liberal Party drivel, or is it Athiest Cult drivel? Spit it out Emily what is it?

            Thank you Emily

    • You’re right, a protracted civil war was definitely what the doctor called for. Just ask the Syrians.

      • No one interfered in the British or US civil wars.

        How be we just mind our own business?

        • You’re right, William of Orange was definitely an Englishman through and through and did not at all sail up the Thames.

          Historical hilarity aside though, what happened to ‘bull in the china shop’? Did the intervention make everything worse, or is foreign intervention of any kind unacceptable, regardless of the human cost in life?

          • King Billy was a revolution

            For civil wars see Oliver Cromwell

            Stay out of other people’s affairs

          • What’s the difference between intervening in a civil war, and intervening in a revolution?

            To what extent should countries stay out of each other’s affairs by the way?

          • We shouldn’t be intervening in other people’s affairs at all.

            We wouldn’t appreciate it if other countries scolded US, tried to shame us, denounced us, called us ‘evil’…..or worse…. bombed or invaded us. How dare they?!

            But apparently we’re quite happy to do that to everyone else.

            We’re choosy though. Rwanda was meh, Darfur ignored, and the Killing fields of Cambodia were a yawn.

            Doesn’t even matter about oil….Nigeria has lots of it….many places in Africa have oil, diamonds, gold and so on.

            Religion though….that counts. Well, one religion.

            Hindus and Muslims killing each other….who cares?

            Anyway….if there was genuine outrage over war criminals, genocide, various holocausts and so on….we’d ensure the UN had a proper military available at all times….and the majority would vote to send it in.

            Otherwise it’s the same old wars of acquisition and conversion as before. Nobody buys ‘military liberation theory.’ LOL

          • Yes, yes, yes everybody knows international policy has nothing to do with anything but oil and killing muslims.

            Most of as have spent the last decade becoming very well acquainted with baby’s first foreign policy analysis, and quite frankly it’s lost it’s edge.

            I’m not even sure what your point is anymore however. Is it that foreign intervention in Libya made things worse, is it that no foreign intervention of any kind can be good regardless of the results, or is it that no foreign intervention is valid unless you intervene everywhere all of the time at once?

            I get the sense you’re not terribly sure either and thought you could get away with what you no doubt imagined was a few scathingly edgy remarks on the folly of foreign intervention. I also got the sense from your comment on the UN and that the Libyan intervention is exactly the same thing as a classic war of acquisition that you haven’t the slightest idea of what you’re talking about altogether anyways. No wonder you can’t follow your own point.

          • ‘International policy’ doesn’t….US and UK policy has done so for a century.

            The west shouldn’t be intervening at all…nor should any one country. That makes it ordinary war….not a rescue mission.

            I’m quite sure, thank you….and you also know exactly what I’ve said. You just don’t like it.

            Don’t try patronizing people because you disagree with them….it doesn’t work.

          • The US has about 1000 military bases around the world. Why do you think they are there?

          • I know why they’re there. So does everyone else.

            However, imperial overstretch is finally hitting home with them.

          • If you want to see overstretch you should look in the mirror.
            By the way your magic number is 8,280

        • Yes, people did the French for one, and the Spanish second.

          • I think your history is somewhat confused.

  3. Talk about democracy with no democratic institutions. When there is so much oil money, government must be in control. I am sure all the military women in Libya will all be wrapped up in Hijabs and returned home – so sad but as everyone expected, it will be war all the way to the next generation.

  4. I’d rather see disruption of oil production then Wahhabi terror over modern, secular folk which would be ignored by West. Or we have both?

  5. I love you all

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