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By-election brouhaha

How the night went down in Brandon-Souris, Toronto Centre, Bourassa and Provencher


 

Trevor Hagan/CP

Welcome to live coverage of today’s four by-elections. Elections Canada will begin posting results tonight after the polls close at 9:30pm EST.

While we wait, some numbers.

First, here are Forum’s polls. At last report, Forum gives the Liberals an eight-point lead in Toronto Centre, a 12-point lead in Bourassa and an astounding 29-point lead in Brandon-Souris, and a surprisingly narrow 11-point lead for the Conservatives in Provencher.

Second, here are the 2011 splits.

Toronto Centre Liberals 40.1, NDP 30.2, Conservatives 22.6, Greens 5.0
Bourassa Liberals 40.9, NDP 32.3, Bloc Quebecois 16.1, Conservatives 8.8, Greens 1.6
Brandon-Souris Conservatives 63.4, NDP 25.2, Greens 5.7, Liberals 5.4
Provencher Conservatives 70.6, NDP 17.9, Liberals 6.7, Greens 3.0

Third, here are the cumulative splits in you combine the 2011 results for the four ridings.

Conservatives 39.6
NDP 26.7
Liberals 25.5
Greens 3.9

Finally, here are Paul’s thoughts ahead of tonight’s results, here is Nick’s preview, here is our coverage of the fun in Brandon-Souris and here is our coverage of Toronto Centre.

9:47pm. Two polls in, Liberal Rolf Dinsdale enjoys a robust seven-vote advantage in Brandon-Souris.

If the Conservatives have a tough night, there might be some attempt to suggest that by-elections are typically difficult for the governing party. This isn’t a terribly well supported thesis—see here and here. The Harper government has actually done very well in by-elections. At least between 2006 and 2011. During the first five years of its mandate, the Conservatives retained the one seat they held and picked-up four ridings that had been held by other parties (they also regained Bill Casey’s seat).

10:13pm. Brandon-Souris is tight—some suggestion here of where the night could be going.

Provencher is almost surely going to stay Conservative, but the exact result could be mildly interesting. Since 2004, the Liberal vote there has gone from 25% to 16% to 13% to 7%. The Conservative vote has gone from 63% to 66% to 65% to 71%. As I type, the Conservatives lead 55.5% to 31.9%. If Liberal Terry Hayward holds that share, he will have more than quadrupled his result in 2011.

10:21pm. Let’s go ahead and give Bourassa to Liberal Emmanuel Dubourg. If the current percentages hold, the result will be closer to the 2008 election result, but with the New Democrats having replaced the Bloc Quebecois as the second choice (and the Bloc Quebecois replacing the Conservatives as the third choice).

10:33pm. Mr. Dinsdale’s lead in Brandon-Souris is proving somewhat resilient, at least over the last 15 minutes, at least so far as the polls are being reported to Elections Canada (his lead was five points with 60 polls reporting, it’s three points with 85 polls reporting). It’s impossible to know where those polls are and what’s left to come in.

The numbers on the ground in Toronto Centre, meanwhile, show a healthy Liberal lead, whereas the early numbers from Elections Canada show a small lead for the NDP’s Linda McQuaig.

10:38pm. Ten more polls come in for Brandon-Souris and the numbers flip to a one-point lead for Mr. Maguire.

10:59pm. Through 150 polls, Mr. Dinsdale claims 300-vote lead, but absent any knowledge of which polls have reported, it’s difficult to know what that means. If the split in Brandon-Souris is between largely Liberal urban areas and largely Conservative rural areas, it depends on which of those areas are still to report.

11:06pm. Chrystia Freeland is apparently about to declare victory in Toronto Centre (Elections Canada gives her a ten-point lead with a little less than half of polls reporting). So the Liberals hold both of their seats. And now both Ms. Freeland and Ms. McQuaig get to decide which of the reconfigured Toronto ridings they’ll run in for 2015 (one of them could, for instance, stay in the new Toronto Centre while the other goes to the new University-Rosedale riding).

11:30pm. The precise numbers will change, but at this point the Liberals have improved their share of the vote in all four ridings and the Conservatives are down in all four ridings. The New Democrats are up in Toronto Centre, down slightly in Bourassa and well down in Brandon-Souris and Provencher. And it’s a bit of a wash for the Greens, up slightly in Provencher and Bourassa, down slightly in Toronto Centre and Brandon-Souris.

11:43pm. On the one hand, as the polls come in, Mr. Dinsdale lead’s is getting smaller (through 185 polls, it’s 122 votes). On the other hand, if the polls remaining to come in are from Brandon, he might be about to get a large boost.

11:46pm. And now Mr. Maguire leads through 190 polls. By 38 votes.

11:51pm. Let’s all pause for a moment to recognize and appreciate that Brandon-Souris is currently the source of national political intrigue and excitement. Of course, it already was the greatest by-election of our time.

12:19am. While we wait for the final 14 polls in Brandon-Souris, the final numbers are in for Provencher. Here they are, with the percentage-point changes in vote share from 2011 in brackets.

Conservatives 58.1 (-12.5)
Liberals 29.9 (+23.2)
NDP 8.2 (-9.7)
Greens 3.8 (+0.8)

12:27am. Ten polls remaining and the Conservative lead in Brandon-Souris is 287 votes.

12:34am. Five polls remaining and the Conservative lead in Brandon-Souris is 346 votes.

12:35am. Four polls remaining and the Conservative lead in Brandon-Souris is 343 votes.

12:38am. Three polls remaining and the Conservative lead in Brandon-Souris is 343 votes.

12:45am. Two polls remaining and the Conservative lead in Brandon-Souris is 407 votes.

12:51am. All polls reporting and the Conservative win in Brandon-Souris is by 391 votes.

Here are the final numbers with changes in brackets.

Conservatives 44.1 (-19.3)
Liberals 42.7 (+36.1)
NDP 7.4  (-17.8)
Greens 4.9 (-0.8)

12:56am. There is one poll outstanding in Bourassa, but here are the current numbers with the changes in brackets.

Liberals 48.1 (+7.2)
NDP 31.6 (-0.7)
Bloc Quebecois 12.9 (-3.2)
Conservatives 4.6 (-4.2)
Greens 2.0 (+0.4)

1:00am. So a rather good night for the Liberals and a fairly rough night for the Conservatives. Probably the best one can say for the governing party is that it could have been worse and at least it doesn’t now have to deal with the practical, psychological and narrative impact of a defeat in Brandon-Souris. If 2006 to 2011 was a run of by-election success for the Conservatives, 2011 to 2013 has now been a difficult stretch: a loss in Labrador after Peter Penashue resigned and narrow victories in Calgary Centre and Brandon-Souris, two ridings that would have previously been considered safe for a Conservative. The New Democrats back-up their 2011 result in Bourassa and increase their share in Toronto Centre (and now the riding boundaries change), but are surpassed by the Liberals in Manitoba.

Here is Paul’s analysis.


 

By-election brouhaha

  1. I think your statement about Brandon-Souris is wrong

  2. The results are pretty preliminary right now, but it looks like the Liberals – though they may not pick up seats – have gained some serious traction in Manitoba. This speaks to something I’ve observed generally in politics – regional divides are aggravated by the fact that parties don’t campaign in areas they think they will lose.

    But when you have a nation-wide effect like say, the election of a popular new leader, big gains are possible – partly because of the leader, and partly because the party actually commits resources. For instance, Democrats have long wrote off Indiana in presidential elections. But when they actually fought for it (in 2008), they won the state.

    These results become possible because political parties also write off the regions they think are “in the bag”. Justin Trudeau’s biggest opportunities to pick up seats may lie in courting precisely those regions that Harper has taken for granted. While westerners tend to be more conservative, they are also democratic reformers – and Harper’s failed them on that front. If the Liberal party could speak to their interests, it could have an opening.

    • I live in Manitoba. You are wrong. People are mad at Sellinger helped by the MSM and mad at Harper. Ur analysis is wrong. If you win it will simply be because the NDP is in power provincially. Stop being so smug. If anyone is taking things for granted, its the Libs thinking that the wind is in their sails and the NDP are yesterday’s news. Westerners are not the “democratic reformers” you suggest. Your analysis is self serving and wrong.

      • I think there’s some truth to what h2h is suggesting AND the third and penultimate sentence in your reply.

      • I am not a Liberal, but an increase of 25% and 38% is pretty darn striking. I’d add that when the Liberals made serious efforts to win ridings in Manitoba, they did. Chretien won 12/14 Manitoba ridings in 1993. When he proved to be just as unaccountable as Mulroney, those voters turned to the NDP and Reform.

        • From my standpoint, people hate Sellinger and the NDP. It is a serious drag here in Manitoba. Glad its happening now but I’m not optimistic of getting more NDP seats, and I think we in Winnipeg North will continue to be stuck with Kevin Lamoureux, as watch his continued quest to be made a Liberal Cabinet Minister. The man has a serious small man complex. I was waiting for the Trudeau wave. Where is it? This was the best chance they will have in either of these Tory ridings. Once again what really happened is Ontario Tories voted Liberal to keep out the NDP, The really story is the Liberals are simply an alternate Right Wing party people go to when they are mad at the Tories.

          • Why are NDP supporters so angry all the time?

          • I don’t think they are angry, they are rather bemused.
            People seem to be bewitched by the Conservative crooks or Con-lite with a smile and decent grooming. It’s like choosing between those who will steal your pension and all your savings and those who do likewise but with a smile.
            How often are we as a people going to see misconduct and criminal behaviour by the Cons and the Libs and still vote them into power? The electorate are like an abused spouse who continually refuses to press charges or move out. Worse still they drag the rest of us down with them.

            Bemusement seems to be a pretty restrained response to me.

          • Your response proves his point – no?

          • not really

          • You questioned the ethics of the Manitoba voters so in other words, had they voted Liberal, you would have been okay with their ethics. Yet the Liberals have as much scandal in the senate as the Cons do and now JT’s office is problematic and you take their word that it is a clerical error when in fact that is pretty unlikely. In order to be a clerical error, no one would have read the e-mail or at least no one that speaks English. Having worked in an executive office in my relative youth, I can tell you that every incoming piece of mail was read and passed up the chain of command. A piece of mail that had those allegations in it would have been shown to someone in a position of power within the office. This is very likely another Nigel Wright-type situation where someone didn’t want JT involved in this mess. It is again all about plausible deniability. When Harper does it, it is appalling. When JT does it, perfectly understandable. How so?

          • Is the RCMP investigating Trudeau’s office?
            Has an IPO been sought and issued with intent to lay charges regarding fraud and corruption?
            Was there a concerted effort by Trudeau’s office to make this go away?
            Was there approval to bribe anybody into keeping quiet?
            Has Trudeau made contradictory statements regarding the affairs involving Liberals in the Senate?

            Having worked in an executive office in government, I can assure you that when something that comes in that is marked with non-urgent topic du jour it is filed for looking at later on. Usually when the working group creating policy on this topic is convened to address the issue. The party leader in the place where I worked received hundreds of letters each day and many more messages, today with e-comms it must be an incredible volume for a national leader. It was the one thing that i found plausible about Mayor Ford’s defence of his budget.

            So there is no comparison between the Senatorial “Scandals” and you are just reaching with the mail handling.
            You have nothing but guess work with which to target Trudeau. But there are masses of e-mails and changed answers that condemn the Harper Cons.

          • Pleeese! When you have alleged sexual predators on YOUR team in the senate you do not get to gloat! Enough of your carrying on about Conservative crooks, etc. People in glass houses, etc.

          • Careful
            I have no team. I’m not a party person because parties make excuses for the bad behaviour of their members. Also how many real independents are being investigated by the RCMP for criminal offences today?
            Don’t presume to know me.

          • Hahaha! Perhaps if you didn’t defend “the hair” so often we might believe you weren’t a Liberal partisan. You sound like EmilyOne. You question the ethics of anyone who doesn’t vote Liberal and then you say you aren’t affiliated with that party. Hmmm…..right!

          • No.

            I question the ethics of all the folk who excuse their own behaviour and yet have a go at others for similar or lesser versions of the same actions.
            Hypocrisy is all that bothers me and I have been bothered to the limit lately. Adscam was a disgrace, but the person who promised to fix the system was an even bigger disgrace.
            I’m from Europe, there isn’t a politician left enough for me, so I can look in amazement at those who claim to be honest and yet lie so proficiently, god fearing and yet break some many commandments in a single term.
            I judge our politicians by their own standards and they fail miserably. But their supporters will forgive any sin as long as it’s done by their team.
            The reason why I like Nenshi and other municipal politicians is that they are honest and their own person. Federally and provincially most politicians suck, because they are venal and lie.

          • flagging for inappropriate and unsubstantiated terminology. While there have been complaints about the senator and they should certainly be investigated, if you used that term to his face you could be sued for everything you own.

            Grow up.

          • Have you read the things the women are claiming about him currently and in the past? If so, he is being accused of sexual assault. What I am calling him is not out of line and it is appalling that he has remained in a political office given that so many women have made similar claims. What I cannot believe is that YOU would tell ME to grow up! Are you kidding? Have you read the articles? There isn’t just one woman claiming he was sexually intimidating toward her. Do you honestly believe that a group of women over years colluded to lie and accuse him? Maybe you should take your own advice and grow up. These women are brave and risk everything to come forth against very powerful men.

          • I have no idea how you act in your daily life and on the internet people are emboldened. But the term you used has a very specific connotation and if you throw it around like you have been here there could someday be repercussions.

            Look, it;s a big deal, even if the LPC enemies are trying to make too much out of the timeline. Call it “allegations of serious misconduct towards women” and everyone wins. Got it?

          • Clearly you didn’t read the comment I made either.

            “How often are we as a people going to see misconduct and criminal behaviour by the Cons and the Libs and still vote them into power?”
            Cons and Libs

          • I was waiting for the Trudeau wave. Where is it?

            Well, maybe there’s no “Trudeau wave”, but the results in Brandon-Souris in particular aren’t exactly nothing.

            The Liberals just got their highest share of the vote in that riding in its entire 60 year history. Previously, the best the Liberals had EVER done in Brandon-Souris was 12,130 votes for a 33.1% share of the votes cast (when they won the riding in 1993, the one and only time it hasn’t gone Conservative). Tonight, the Liberals got 11,814 votes, which was 42.7% of the votes cast.

            Say what you will about the unpopularity of the NDP, or the Tories nomination shenanigans, but the Liberals got more votes in Brandon-Souris tonight than they got in the 2011, 2008, and 2006 elections COMBINED.

            Who knows what it really means, but any time a party goes from 1,882 votes in one election to 11,814 votes in the next election, surely that can’t be meaningless.

            As for the night as a whole, take a look at the points gained and lost in each riding by the Tories and the Liberals compared to their 2011 results:

            Bourrassa: Liberals +7.2, Tories -4.1
            Toronto Centre: Liberals +8, Tories -13.9
            Provencher: Liberals +23.2, Tories -12.5
            Brandon-Souris: Liberals +37.3, Tories -19.6

            In the riding where the Tory vote held up the best compared to 2011, the Tories went from getting 8.8% of the vote, to getting 4.7%. Meanwhile, the Liberals worst increase (ironically, in the same riding!) had the Liberals going from 40.9% of the vote to 48.1%.

            Who knows what exactly it means, but it’s not nothing.

          • Blah, Blah, Blah….you only get to change things if you win….

          • Sure, but if your “wins” involve 13 year lows in historically safe as can be seats, that doesn’t necessarily bode well for your chances in seats that are actually in play.

            Yes, the Tories held the two Manitoba seats that they had going in to the by-elections, but surely someone in the CPC war room is going to point out at some point that the results in those ridings tonight were the worst conservative results in those two ridings since Stockwell Day and Joe Clark were splitting the conservative vote 19.4%/18.8%.

          • In private maybe, publicly they’ll exclaim that their mandate has been reinforced.
            Yet another example of putting party posturing before learning about how the country should be run.

          • LKO, there are two more years until 2015. In the meantime, the Liberals have their own issues in the senate as they are quickly finding they may have as many corrupt senators as the tories do and JT’s office is either inept or pulling the same crap as the PMO does. Meanwhile, JT can’t be trusted to go off script because he says too many foolish things and according to Chantal Hebert, he isn’t that great on script. This Wright Duffy scandal should have had the tories sunk if this was their adscam. They still pulled out the wins and Harper is unlikely to make an more mistakes in the next two years. Can you say the same for JT?

          • They still pulled out the wins and Harper is unlikely to make an more mistakes in the next two years.

            Well, they “pulled out the wins” in two of the safest Tory seats in the country.

            You’re right though, there are two years to go until the next election, but I’m not sure I’d be as sanguine as you that they’re going to be good years for the Tories necessarily. They’d better be. The third place party just came within 400 votes of winning a riding that’s gone conservative in 21 of 22 elections.

          • Yes and the third place party used to be the natural ruling party of Canada. We have no idea what will happen in the next two years. I can afford to be sanguine because I think time is on my side. At this point I don’t really want the hair as my PM because I don’t think he is very intelligent and I think with more time I will either be proven incorrect in my assessment which is good if he should end up PM OR others will come to agree with me. In that case we will all find out that Ms. Freeland, the new MP for Toronto Centre, was very astute when during a tv interview with JT at her side, she explained that the problem with Canada is that people do not enter into professions in accordance with their intelligence or merits but are handed them (perhaps unfairly) because their father did the same thing for a living. Hopefully, she was not describing JT.

          • You know, for someone who claims to be non partisan, you sure seem angry the Liberals did so well and the Conservatives, well, didn’t.

            I hope you got some rest last night.

          • Slept like a baby. I don’t have to be partisan to pray we get a PM with a brain under his hair. As for who did well and who, “well didn’t.” There are two years to go in the big race and so many gaffes to make…..let’s just enjoy the ride shall we. Now that the scandals in the senate continue to blossom with members from both parties showing equal propensity to participate in said scandals and what do you KNOW but honest, open Justin Trudeau’s office is now under the radar for possibly obstructing justice in the latest scandal or is he just inept in running his office? Is he just as corrupt as Stephen Harper or just as unable to keep his minions under control? My this is getting more and more interesting. What is the point of being partisan when the two parties have sooo much in common….the appearance of deception, corruption and obstruction v. inept leadership.

          • Nothing about Senator Kenny has changed in the past few days, so it is not getting more interesting, you are just getting more desperate.

          • Why would I be desperate? Incredulous is more like it? I cannot believe that the same people who carry on about bribery are so blaise about alleged sexual assault and the possible attempt at plausible deniability. If it isn’t okay for the PM, it certain isn’t okay for his would be successor. These senate scandals have the capacity to bring down anyone.

          • You don’t live in Manitoba I assume. I do. I have lived here all my life with the exception of my military service. I have NEVER seen the outright lying and smear job that has been waged against the Sellinger NDP by this Province’s power elite and the MSM, cheered on by the Manitoba NDP and Liberal MPs like Kevin Lamoureux. The people of this province have been lied to, and worked up into a frenzy by a press and opposition that salivates at the thought of getting rid of the NDP. And despite all of that, they couldn’t win Brandon-Souris; that was their ONLY shot at it. The Libs will NEVER win that seat. I predict the NDP will not make any further gains in this province and the Libs may win the Osborne seat. Last night was a referendum on Trudeaumania. The outcome, no more Liberal seats, speaks volumes.

          • How can Brandon-Souris possibly be a failed referendum on Trudeaumania when it didn’t even go Liberal the FIRST time Trudeau-mania happened???

            I’ll conceded that maybe the Liberals will never win that riding, but how does that fact “speak volumes”??? They’ve won that riding precisely ONCE in 60 years and last night they took a higher percentage of the vote than they did in the one year that they won it.

            In Provencher, the Liberals gained 23 points despite the fact that the NDP only lost 9.5, and the Tories received their fewest votes in that riding in any election since 1974.

            Now, explain to me again how federal Liberal gains twice the size of NDP loses, coupled with historic Tory lows, are all a result of discontent with the provincial NDP. Better yet, explain to me how it’s somehow a bad sign for the Trudeau Liberals that they just had their best result in Provencher since 2000 and their best result in Brandon-Souris in 60 years.

          • I live in Manitoba and have my whole life. I know exactly what happened. There was an unprecedented campaign to smear the NDP. The increased LPC vote had NOTHING to do with Le Dauphin. I don’t care if you believe it. I know this Province.

          • The NDP are smearing themselves in Manitoba by proving how grossly incompetent they are, lying about raising taxes, and generally pissing everybody off.

          • Oh brother.

          • I can see how a smear of the NDP could cause the NDP vote to drop 17.82 points, but what accounts for the 19.64% drop in the Tory vote? It seems to me that the 37 point increase for the Liberals came pretty much evenly from both the Tories and the NDP. How would you suggest it is that anger at the NDP made non-NDP voters vote for the Liberals?

          • Believe whatever you want.

          • Because non NDP voters are very much in these Manitoba ridings, right wing Tories and right leaning “independants”. These are two of the most red-neck, reactionary ridings in the Province, full of some of the nastiest, most spiteful, rotten people. Some aren’t voting for Harper because he’s dirty, and they are mad at them, never voted NDP, and find it easy to do. The others, mad at the NDP provincially are able to convince themselves to vote Liberal. Mind you there is likely some Lib and Tory crossover. The NDP base stayed; it is and always has been small. So given this choice , the decision is to vote Lib. But worse, from my personal standpoint is that there is a perfect storm and the NDP is caught in it. The same kind of squeeze is looking like it is going to happen here as well. But instead of Rae destroying the NDP both Provincially and Federally, Sellinger is doing it. From my standpoint, this is a disaster. I believe the NDP is on the verge of wandering in the dessert for many years to come in Manitoba. All the geniuses of the Manitoba NDP leadership are going to go off with their pensions, leaving people like me, true believers, with no big fat publically provided pensions on our own to sail troubled seas that will capsize and sink far too many. Manitoba is about to experience another Ontario shift. Its a G-d damn mess. Believe I tried to get people in the party to listen, but no cared what I thought. That’s how it is. I believe Tom is going to win in 2015. But, if he governs like the Libs, I am done. I’ll just give up and stay home. It’ll be pretty pointless. Let me say this, Lib/Tory, same old story. There is no difference between either party except that Libs are in a little less of a hurry to get to the same place at the Tories, and at least have the decency to smile at you as the drive the knife into you between your shoulder blades.

          • “These are two of the most red-neck, reactionary ridings in the Province,
            full of some of the nastiest, most spiteful, rotten people.”

            I would sue you to the stone-age if you hadn’t hid behind your anonymous internet name “tromboneguy.” What a miserable sad person you must be.

            Chris Sigvaldason

    • If Just in would speak to their interests, he wouldn’t be a Liberal.

  3. It looks like the good people of Manitoba rate fraud, lieing and stealing as admirable characteristics of a government.
    I wonder how they explain to their kids that breaking the law is wrong when they overlook criminal behaviour for ideological reasons?

    • Gee harebell, when they look at the senate scandal in its totality, they will surely have to rate the Liberals along with the Cons and will have to assess what they think of those men who were in the Liberal caucus who committed fraud as well as perhaps sexual assault. Surely, you are not suggesting we ignore their crimes.

      • At least harper kicked out the cheaters unlike trudeau

        • yes he did. the other parties are trying to claim he should have rushed to judgment and done it sooner. So far, unlike harper, their story hasn’t changed on that front.

          • This could very well be the Liberal version of the “OMG Tom Mulcair DIDN’T accept a bribe!”

          • No, I think it is more like the Lib version of the CPC “OMG if Trudeau can’t run his own office, how can he possibly run a country?!” Out of curiosity, the PMO has 170 staff, how many does Trudeau have??

          • are you even capable of comparing your waaaaaay over the top allegations to how quick you were to concoct absurdist fantasies that excused Mike Duffy?

            you may be unwell.

          • I am surprised….no actually I am not….that you would bring a nine month old incident up again and beat it like a dead horse over and over and over again…..but then that is what you do GFMD. Certainly you must try to protect “the hair’ whatever it takes….no matter how many gaffes he makes. It is a shame that your party picked a good looking guy instead of a rocket scientist but that is your plight and from now on you will have to own that. Carry on. Accuse us all of being “unwell” whenever we question his intelligence or the smooth running of his office.

          • Are you finally willing to admit that you went to absurd lengths to preserve a fnaciful tale in order to protect the party you voted for in the last election?

            If so, can you see how that same tendency could be affecting your judgment now?

          • Listen GFMD, I admitted that for one day I was blindly optimistic that Mike Duffy was decent human being and was financially strapped but then you know all that because I admitted to you that this is what I thought. Of course your mocking of my general optimism that led me to believe in the good that exists in most people has made it impossible for me to be fooled into believing that honest mistakes really happen. Now I am more like you. I am less trusting of all political parties and politicians. I don’t believe emails get lost or misfilied. Infact, I was a secretary at one point. I read every letter. There is NO WAY that email from Collin Kenney’s assistant got lost. It was misfiled on purpose IMO. People read the incoming mail. Sorry but someone is looking out for JT.

          • Ok, I can accept that. Your craziness regarding Duffy now makes you act the same way about Trudeau. Not to mention the Minister of Health, for whom you said it was perfectly understandable and totally in line to know nothing about a program she was attacking.

            Noticing a pattern along party lines?

          • No, I don’t notice a pattern along party lines. I accept that Rona Ambrose knows nothing and I accept party strategy for fund raising. You come at me constantly over the same ridiculous crap and I accept that too. I accept you picked a pretty boy over a rocked scientist. That is reality and that is where we are. Acceptance is a part of moving through life. What things do you accept?

          • Thomas Mulcair didn’t accept a bribe, but he didn’t report being offered a bribe either, until the police came asking about it 10 years later. And Trudeau didn’t accept any bribes, he just extorted tens of thousands of dollars from charities for speaking engagements.

          • Rush to judgement? Sen Kenny had complaints from 2 women on an international team.
            Oh, maybe you are meaning that the Trudeau team can’t even read emails, they file them for months, unanswered.
            Imagine that bunch running a country….no

          • I have no idea if 10 weeks is an inopportune time to make a judgmnet call on the matter.

            Neither do you.

      • Nope

        if they are guilty then charge them all.
        You seem to be mistaking me with a party member, I’m not. Every party will become corrupt when given power, it’s in their very nature.

    • It’s all a matter of perspective, I suppose.

      The Conservative results tonight in those two ridings in Manitoba were the worst Conservative results in either of those ridings in the last 13 years.

      • Maybe but they still returned two more of Harper’s trained seals after their party’s record of criminal conduct.

        Obviously being a crook is okay if you wear the right colours.

    • “t looks like the good people of Manitoba rate fraud, lieing and stealing as admirable characteristics of a government.”
      Absolutely! They have a Provincial NDP Government, don’t they?

      • Last I looked the problem of corruption and fraud involved the federal Conservatives and the good christian people of Provencher seem to think that is excusable. They also seem to think that bullying in the name of Jesus is excusable too.

  4. Something tells me Trudeau is going to be a happy man tomorrow.

    • Of course he will be, he’ll be smoking a joint pool-side not giving two hoots (pun intended) about silly things like governance.

      • The bitterness of defeat makes your jokes even lamer than before.

  5. Looks like Libs and Dippers tried an ‘arrangement’ in Manitoba (Dipper candidate stays home), but Cons still won both seats.
    Harper has only lost one by election, tonight was tough, but a win is a win.

    • I assure you it does not look like that at all. if they ever DO get together on such a plan, the CPC won’t even get a numerical minority.

      • Are they getting together on a plan? NO!

        • I also assume no.

    • Looks like Wilson is making any excuse she can – anything but admit that Harper is hurting and Trudeau appears to be the alternative many people are seeking.

      Remember when being a conservative was all about personal responsibility? Good times, good times.

      PS – didn’t Mulcair campaign in Brandon? Sure sounds like the NDP were “staying home”.

  6. If we were to get a majority of pinheads like this with JT at the helm it would be time to move to Oz.

    • I will help you pack.

    • promise me you’ll take Rick and Francien with you and you will not have to worry about the cost of your plane ticket.

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