From the magazine

Here is the magazine piece on Michael Ignatieff’s current situation. Here is the math.

In order to do so, the Liberals first need their supporters to return. According to analysis from Alice Funke ofpunditsguide.ca, the loss of Liberal seats in 2008 had less to do with other parties than with a drop in the Liberal vote from 2006 levels. The 800,000 voters that failed to materialize in 2008 are key to Liberal hopes in 2011. In tandem, the Green vote must decline—in 29 of the 31 ridings the Liberals failed to retain in 2008, Funke finds, Green support increased.

Even then, there is the small matter of the NDP and the current reality of political fragmentation. A plurality of Canadians—according to Innovative Research Group’s Canada 20/20 online panel for Maclean’s and Rogers Media—may agree with Ignatieff on student aid and a majority may agree with him on corporate taxes and pension reform, but while Harper is alone on one side of the argument, Ignatieff is competing for such voters. (For complete poll results see macleans.ca/electionpoll.) And NDP support has proved resilient. In the wake of Jack Layton’s performance in the leaders’ debates, the New Democrats have even risen in some polls.




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From the magazine

  1. Depends on if the NDP support holds.

    A lot of people are giving Layton a sympathy and admiration vote for clumping around the country on a cane….whether that translates into seats is another matter. Quebec may be his best shot, because both the Bloc and the NDP are socialist….but the NDP is also federalist.

    As to the rest of it….the polls are all over the map, but the upshot seems to be that nothing has changed since before the campaign.
    http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/federal-

  2. It seems like anything could happen in the polls right now. The NDP surge has changed quite a few things. The polls are way out of whack. Compare these two polls released today:

    1. IPSOS #CPC 43 #NDP 24 #LPC 21 #GPC 4 APR 18-20 Phone sample 1000 MoE 3.1 19/20

    2. EKOS #CPC 34.4 #NDP 24.7 #LPC 24.7 #GPC 7.8
    (The Ekos seat projection has the NDP at 60 seats, and it also has the LPC gaining seats, so that NDP+LPC>CPC)

    We're in some kind of bizarro world right before the holiday weekend.

  3. "…. the loss of Liberal seats in 2008 had less to do with other parties than with a drop in the Liberal vote from 2006 levels. The 800,000 voters that failed to materialize in 2008 … "

    What does that mean? 800,000 fewer Liberals voted for party and stayed home or did they vote for other party. And how can you tell who is which.

    • You can tell with the Canadian Election Survey.

      Here is how voters in the survey, who had backed the Liberals in 2006 voted:
      CPC: 14.9%
      NDP: 11.3%
      Liberal: 60.5%
      BQ: 1.1%
      Green: 3.4
      Did not vote: 8.7%

      (Note: the Liberals picked up some support from people that had not voted for them in 2006 – obviously they didn't drop by 40% of their support overall. Another caveat is that non-voters are probably underrepresented in the sample).

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