The motivation gap


Eric Grenier notes an interesting distinction made in the latest polling data from Ekos.

This is the first publicly released report of federal vote intentions from EKOS since the May 2011 election, and the poll shows a much closer race between the Conservatives and the New Democrats than we’ve seen elsewhere. The Conservatives finished with 31.4% support in this survey, compared to 29.5% for the New Democrats and 24.8% for the Liberals … But EKOS also filtered these numbers out according to who voted in the May 2011 election, weighing them accordingly. With those weightings, EKOS pegs Conservative support at 36.7%, with the NDP at 27.8% and the Liberals at 21.9%.

That is quite a big difference between the voting intentions of the general population and the voting population. It does not surprise me that there would be a disparity, though this is larger than I would have expected.


The motivation gap

  1. Ekos botched the last election, and they appear to be, once again, out
    on their own with their own flawed numbers.  Obviously they are doing
    something wrong.  Graves should just give it up.

    • Seems Ekos is pretty close with what other polling firms are reporting these days…

      “EKOS pegs Conservative support at 36.7%”

  2. Given that Harper has no reason to have an election until four years from now, I would say that polling data on party support are largely irrelevant at the moment.

  3. “The motivation gap”

    I saw the title and expected an post on how Canada’s productivity is lagging behind the rest of the developed world due to excessive cannabis consumption.

    Grenier’s math implies serious GOTV issues with the NDP and Liberals.  

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