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The race for Bourassa begins

Denis Coderre steps aside, setting up a battle between Liberals and New Democrats


 

Liberal MP Denis Coderre announces he’s seeking to be the next mayor of Montreal and with that the race for Bourassa can be begin. And with that might come the first real test of Justin Trudeau’s leadership.

After losing in his first run for the riding in 1993, Mr. Coderre won it six times between 1997 and 2011, but the 40.9% of the vote he received in 2011 was the lowest share a Liberal has ever received in Bourassa.

The New Democrats came within 3,300 votes in that election, but that was with the NDP receiving 43% of the vote in the province and the Liberals taking 14%. The latest monthly polling average put the Liberals at 36% and the New Democrats at 26%, but then there seems to be some belief among New Democrats that Liberal support in Bourassa is tied to Mr. Coderre.

It was, of course, the NDP’s win in a previously safe Liberal riding in Montreal—Outremont in 2007—that gave the NDP a presence in Quebec and rattled the leadership of Stephane Dion. (Fun fact: Before the Liberals nominated Jocelyn Coulon, it was thought that Justin Trudeau might be the Liberal candidate in Outremont.)

Meanwhile, Bloc leader Daniel Paille, still without a seat in the House, has said he won’t run in Bourassa.


 

The race for Bourassa begins

  1. I’m looking forward to this one. I think barring a disaster, this is an easy Liberal hold, but the real risk is with Mulcair and the NDP. Since the ascendancy of the Dauphin, and now this result in BC, I’m really feeling like the NDP are starting to look less and less like a serious alternative to PM Harper and the Tories, so anything less than matching their strong second place and 32% of the vote in 2011 will augur poorly for their ability to hold their support in Quebec and resist a Liberal resurgence. More than that, a second decisive by-election victory in a row for the Dauphin could start to build an aura of inevitability and success that will increasingly imperil the NDP as Justin and the Liberals start to build their momentum for 2015. Needless to say, it is a must-win for Justin, but this should be a repeat of Labrador.

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