The Mendoza Line -

The Mendoza Line


For those looking to somehow quantify whatever happens on Saturday…

According to a quick and entirely unscientific survey of already unscientific media estimates, anti-coalition rallies last December in Edmonton, Moncton, Ottawa, Victoria, Calgary, Toronto, London, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Windsor, Halifax, Regina, Fredericton and Saskatoon combined to draw about 9,600 protesters.

Pro-coalition rallies in Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, London, Vancouver, Moncton, Halifax, Regina, St. John’s, Montreal, Toronto, Windsor and Saskatoon drew, according to media reports, about 9,300.


The Mendoza Line

  1. Hm, I thought Stephen Taylor claimed he had 20 000 at the Ottawa rally last year.

    • (I could be mistaken; I'm reading some old Twitter remarks and one fella said Taylor claimed the CAPP folks needed 20 000 + to be considered legitimate grassroots protests at rallies like his", but as I said, feel free to correct my mistaken impression if it's mistaken).

  2. According to a quick and entirely unscientific survey of already unscientific media estimates…

    You'd think news agencies would have databases of this kind of thing by now. You know event, min/max crowd estimates and source of estimate, that kind of thing.

    I've got a copy of VisiCalc lying around, if any of you need it.

    • It's not software that's needed, it's reporters with paying jobs.

  3. Accepting for now the figures in the post, it is logical to conclude that the anti-prorogationforces can claim a victory if they outnumber the pro-prorogation forces by 3.3%.

    Are there any pro-prorogation rallies planned? If not, it's a victory by default for the Canadians Against Proroguing Parliament.

    • Ezra's likely gonna be out there, even if he can't raise a dozen souls to keep him company.

    • LOL

      There is a "Canadians for Proroguing Parliament" group on Facebook (currently 420 members), but I don't think they have any rallies or other events planned.

      • At their size, they can just host a little cocktails and hors d'ouevres thing and send out secret invitations, no big bandstand and speaker system required. With the money saved they can get they can buy those fancy creampuff snack things.

  4. one little, two little, three little Canadians ….

  5. Facebook may be relevant to those who use it. I don't. But I'll be out on Saturday.

    About a dozen people that I know are going. I've never heard any of them mention Facebook.

    • Good point. To some extent, Facebook is what in networks we call the backbone — it's carrying information for organizers, but not necessarily all attendees will interact with it.

      I'm in Toronto and hoping (naively) that the protest here is matched in size by another city outside Ontario. The Toronto attendance doesn't matter (IMHO), but outside Toronto actually does matter.

  6. Interesting.

    For what it's worth (admittedly, perhaps little) the event page on Facebook for the rallies generally, across Canada, has 8,103 "confirmed guests" (people who have RSVP'd on Facebook that they "Will Attend") and another 5,881 people who have RSVP'd that they "Might Attend".

    A more accurate prediction (maybe?) might be gleaned from the event pages for the individual rallies themselves. The Toronto Rally page has 3580 "confirmed guests" for example, and 2837 "maybes" while the Ottawa rally has 1137 "confirmed" and 823 "maybe" guests. Vancouver has 917 confirmed guests and 900 "maybes". There are over 61 planned rallies across the country (so I won't bore you with more) but of course some of those are in pretty small towns (relatively speaking).

    Of course, not all of those people who've RSVP'd will come, but some will undoubtedly come who didn't RSVP as well. I was pretty impressed by the over 100 people they had come out to the Toronto rally planning session. It'll be interesting to see how the rallies themselves go.

    • I RSVPd but I didn't RSVP for my wife and three kids who will be coming.

  7. We'll have to wait and see but it looks as though at the very least the rallies today were more successful than the numbers cited above. 3,500 seems to be the generally accepted (RCMP) estimate for Ottawa. Toronto I'm less sure about. I'm pretty sure it'll end up being at least as big as Ottawa, but I've seen estimates as high as 7,000. Many of the rallies in smaller cities seem to have been well attended as well (300-350 in Waterloo, 500+ in Halifax – perhaps as high as 1000….).

    As I said, I'm not sure we'll have a really accurate idea until the 6:00 news, but I'd say there's almost no way now that today's rallies will ended up being smaller than the 9,600 quoted above.