Seems to me the Liberals will have a very easy time making money off this Oda affair.
1. They declare: Either Oda goes or we go to the polls. If Oda goes, then they get a scalp.
2. If Oda stays, they declare they will vote non-confidence in the government at every opportunity from now on.
This will lead to four possible scenarios:
3. Scenario one: NDP and Bloc support the government — then the government becomes, for the remainder of the term, a “coalition of socialists and separatists” — that’s the end of that Conservative talking point.
4. Scenario two: the NDP supports the government. Then the Libs have a great attack on the NDP in the next election (“they supported contempt for parliament and the defunding of Kairos”)
5. Scenario three: the Bloc supports the government. Then the Liberal attack becomes “this government survives only through the support of separatists”. So much for that Conservative talking point.
6. Scenario four: Election
I can’t see how any one of these scenarios is tactically any worse than where the Liberals are now. Also, it gives them the advantage of being on the right side of truth, accountability, parliament, and democracy. It’s very rare that these line up so nicely with partisan advantage. Be a shame to waste it; it certainly beats riding around in a bus shaking hands.