With Pennsylvania a few weeks away, the Clinton spin machine is in full operation. The line is very simple: Hillary has won the big states that will be needed to win in November. If Florida and Michigan have a revote and Hillary wins them again, super delegates will have difficulty ignoring Hillary’s momentum. She may have had a negative campaign in recent weeks, and she may have less pledged delegates but coming back from near political death will reinforce her argument that she is the tougher of the two candidates to meet John McCain in the fall.
To counter this ‘big state spin’ of the Clintons, Barack Obama needs to reinforce the fact that he will have won the majority of states (already 29 of 43), the most popular votes and will most likely end with the highest number of pledged delegates. But, to make his case more compelling he will have to recreate more momentum in his campaign. Should he lose Pennsylvania, it must be by a small margin and he must go on to win the majority of the states that will follow (especially North Carolina and Indiana). If he wins Pennsylvania, it’s all over.
The controversy over Michigan and Florida is becoming more and more important. Winning those two states for Clinton fits her ‘big state’ strategy. Super delegates are conscious of the stakes. To go against Obama after he wins the majority of the states, they will have to have a strong rationale. The only one is a recognition that Hillary represents the best option to win in November. However, if the super delegates make that choice with Obama leading in the pledged delegates, Hillary Clinton will enter the November election with a divided party and ironically with less of a chance to win.