Can leaders debates shake loose a three-party deadlock?

Three showdowns in rapid succession could mean wild swings in the polls

With three debates in rapid succession, the campaign moves into its penultimate phase. Battleground Quebec is very much on the map as NDP Leader Tom Mulcair needs to protect his base, fortress Quebec. He will certainly be the target in the French-language debates. The Liberals need to gain ground in Quebec, and they hope their federalist position on succession, as well as their support of Bill C-51, doesn’t hinder their growth. Prime Minister Stephen Harper needs seats around Quebec City to possibly make up for potential weakness in Atlantic Canada. And he would like the upcoming Monk School of Global Affairs foreign-policy debate to keep security on the agenda.

Do the debates start to shake loose a three-way deadlock in tracking polls? The campaign will quickly move into the endgame after the leaders tangle on stage. Look for more sudden shifts in the polls as a heavy barrage of ads begin and the “change” vote looks for a home.


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