New seat projection shows Tories up in Ontario

Barry Kay of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy sends along the latest LISPOP seat projection, and it shows the Tories picking up six seats in Ontario based on recent polling.

LISPOP projects seat counts in the House of Commons based on analysis of publicly available polls. In its Sept. 18 projection, using early-September polls from Ipsos, Nanos, Ekos and Strategic Counsel, the institute gave the Conservatives 134 seats, the Liberals 94, the NDP 31 and the Bloc 49.

But the new projection—blending the results of the Ekos Sept. 16-22 poll and the Ipsos Sept. 10-13 poll—sees the Tories up to 141 and the Liberals down to 88, with the NDP holding at 31 and the Bloc at 49.

The key part of the new projection is the Ontario shift. LISPOP had the Tories at 47 seats in Ontario earlier this month, tied with the Liberals. But taking into account the way the two more recent polls widened the Conservative lead in Ontario to eight points, LISPOP has the Tories climbing to 53 seats in the province and the Liberals slipping to 41.

The 2008 election returned 143 Tory MPs, 76 Liberals, 37 New Democrats, and 50 Blocquistes. Both of the two latest LISPOP projections show the Tories would lose four of their 10 Quebec seats, if voters cast their ballots in a way that reflected this month’s polling results.

Those Quebec losses would mean that to have any hope of a majority, the Conservatives need to make substantial Ontario gains. The latest projection charts some movement in that direction. Still, 144 remains long way from 155—the number of MPs needed for a House majority.

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