What's going on in Brandon-Souris (and Toronto Centre)?

By-election polling and intrigue

A new Forum poll gives the Liberal candidate a five-point advantage in Brandon-Souris, roughly in line with what Forum reported last month. How dramatic a result would that be? A 40-35 split in favour of the Liberals would represent a 35-point increase for the Liberals and a 29-point drop for the Conservatives compared to the 2011 result.

Forum also gives the Liberals an 11-point advantage in Toronto Centre, but David Coletto at Abacus has some concerns about those numbers.