Election Watch

Secret meetings, shocking alliances, faulty strategies—and one wonky video camera

I’ve seen this graph in a couple of places, but as someone sent it to me I’ll post it here. It combines falling turnout with growing electoral fragmentation to track the decline over successive federal elections in the winning party’s “mandate,” expressed not as a share of the popular vote, but of the overall electorate. (Not sure if this means registered voters, or the voting-age population, but it doesn’t make a huge difference either way.)

(The Commons returns with a 37th attempt to understand the Stephane Dion Era.)

It’s going to be a great few weeks for anonymous Liberals.

Forget that bit about Dion appealing for calm. That’s what it looked like from eight feet back. But up closer (and to a national audience) it sounded a bit different.

Stephane Dion emerged from the elevator just past midnight, walking fast in a dark suit, his wife at his right, his daughter at his left. Down the hall, past the water fountain, then a left, then another hundred feet and into the first burst of camera flashes and questions. 

With Duceppe having spoken and Layton speaking now, Dion should be along soon. The audience in front of the stage has filled in some, but it is hardly a large gathering. Maybe 150.

A running tally of Liberal incumbents defeated tonight.

Still very close: Outremont, Ahuntsic, Guelph, Mississauga Erindale, Kitchener-Waterloo, Kitchener Centre, Vancouver South, Newton North Delta and Brampton West.

*Elizabeth May was the first party leader to call for a Liberal-NDP coalition. See below.

Mulcair goes ahead, for the first time, by 17 votes.

CTV is interviewing Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae by split screen. The analysts on all the networks are calling Dion done.